Prabowos' diplomatic debut in China and Japan

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A few days after his confirmation as president-elect of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto surprised many during his trip to the People's Republic of China (PRC) at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. In Beijing, Prabowo spoke with Xi, Premier Li Qiang and Defense Minister Dong Jun before flying to Tokyo for a meeting with Japan's prime minister and defense minister. After Tokyo, he traveled to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting with the prime minister of Malaysia, a neighbor and member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with which Indonesia shares many cultural traits and strategic interests.

Prabowo's visits to Beijing and Tokyo were the ones that made headlines. The messages conveyed by Prabowo during the two visits are strikingly similar in tone and substance. In Beijing, he reaffirmed that China is a strategically important partner and pledged to continue outgoing President Joko Widodo's efforts to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries. In Tokyo, Prabowo stressed that Indonesia also regards Japan as a long-standing strategic partner and pledged to deepen security and economic cooperation with Japan.

These back-to-back visits suggest that Prabowo wanted to avoid giving the impression that he favored one country over the other, that China and Japan are key partners and close friends of Indonesia, and that he wanted work more closely with both. This demonstrates Indonesia's strong desire, regardless of who is president, to remain faithful to the sacrosanct principle of free-active (free and active) in its foreign policy.

Until now, no Indonesian president-elect has ever officially visited another country between his election and his inauguration. Beijing appears to have wanted to obtain assurances from Prabowo as soon as possible that his government would continue Widodo's friendly policies, which Prabowo did. In return, Prabowo received a commitment from China to continue supporting Indonesia's economic interests.

China is an important source of foreign investment for Indonesia, second with $7.4 billion in 2023 after Singapore, followed by Hong Kong with $6.5 billion. China is also Indonesia's largest trading partner, worth $65.9 billion in 2022. Even though Japan has become the third largest trading partner and fourth largest investor, it remains an important player in the Indonesian economy.

Timing also matters. It would be difficult for China to expect Prabowo to travel to Beijing immediately after his inauguration on October 20, especially when Prabowo is scheduled to travel to Peru for the APEC summit and Brazil for the G20 summit early november. During this trip, a stopover in Washington is also likely and would be an opportunity for the new president to emphasize Indonesia's desire to maintain close relations with the United States.

However, building a relationship with China has always been a difficult task for any Indonesian government. Although Jakarta has become more comfortable in its relations with Beijing over the years, traces of anti-Chinese sentiment persist. For example, domestic public sentiments and concerns regarding the growing economic relationship with China often pose an obstacle to closer bilateral relations between the two countries. The main concerns are linked to Chinese migrant workers and the country's heavy dependence on China for economic development, particularly in the mining sector.

Coupled with rising nationalism in the country, these sentiments and concerns could fuel strong nationalist responses to China's incursion into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea and increase Indonesia's suspicion of regard for China and Beijing's intentions. Indonesia has always expressed its position that China's nine-dash line has no legal basis in international law, and China's intrusion into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone reflects Beijing's intention to control the resources of the region.

Prabowo will have to remedy these constraints. Indonesia under Prabowo will continue to prioritize economic development, which means that economic cooperation with China is of paramount importance to Indonesia. We hope that the meeting between Prabowo and Xi will provide the two leaders with mutual assurance that they will strive to manage challenges in bilateral relations. If the relationship is to move forward, mutual understanding of each other's expectations and points of view as well as commitment to meeting the challenges of the relationship will be essential.

It is likely that Indonesia will be more active in building and managing balanced relations with major and great powers, as evidenced by Prabowo's visit to Japan, which is a staunch ally of the United States. Indonesia wants to strengthen its ties with Washington, but it remains to be seen how Prabowo will manage this relationship.

The stopover in Kuala Lumpur also reaffirms the importance of ASEAN in Indonesia's foreign policy. However, the question of whether ASEAN will continue to serve as THE cornerstone of Indonesia's foreign policy or simply A the cornerstone remains to be seen. But during these three visits, Prabowo delivered a clear message: Indonesia's foreign policy will not change fundamentally, except for one point: the country will have a president who is more active in managing its foreign policy.