Ally or threat? China's reaction to watch as Japan sends mixed signals in its annual diplomatic blue book

Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the inclusion of the sentence in the latest blue book showed that Japan hoped for cooperation or at least stability in its relations with China despite challenges.

Engagement and dialogue are useful even if there is no agreement. The fact that the Japanese side is extending this possibility is positive, Chong said. If [China] will reciprocate is something to watch out for.

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However, the blue book also contains harsh criticism of China, including accusations that it poses significant challenges to Japan's security environment.

China is attempting to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and the South China Sea and continues and strengthens its military activities around Japan, thereby making the security environment around Japan the most serious and the more complex in the post-war period. annual report on Japan's foreign policy and diplomatic activities.

Chinese observers said such references could send mixed signals, with Beijing inclined to give a cold shoulder to reinstating the positive language.

By reaffirming its mutually beneficial ties while affirming its negative perception of China, Japan was sending ambiguous, even contradictory, signals, according to Zhang Yun, associate professor of international relations at Japan's Niigata University.

The restoration of mutually beneficial strategic relations after five years is supposed to be a good thing, but the constant mention of the Chinese threat has erased the positive effect brought by the reintroduction of elements of cooperation in bilateral relations, Zhang said.

In a speech to the US Congress earlier this month, the first such speech by a Japanese leader in nine years, Kishida said China's military actions represent an unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge, not only for Japan but for the world as a whole.

He also pledged to strengthen strategic collaboration with the United States, citing the military activities of China and Russia as main threats.

Today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia, Kishida said.

Beijing expressed its strong objection to Japan's blue book on Tuesday, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying Japan had resorted to the same old false accusations against China and hype around the Chinese threat.

Zheng Zhihua, research associate professor at the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said reviving commitment to a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship could be a starting point for returning to a trajectory positive in Sino-Japanese relations, but China remains concerned about the discrepancy between Japan's actions and statements.

Beijing would certainly welcome this positive gesture. However, he will closely monitor whether Tokyo's words are backed up by actions, Zheng said.

He added that Japan's close alliance with the United States and like-minded countries, with the clear aim of containing and encircling China, was triggering distrust of Beijing.

Kishida's state visit to the United States from April 8 to 14 also included a meeting in Washington with US and Philippine Presidents Joe Biden and Ferdinand Marcos Jnr. Leaders of the first-ever trilateral summit of its kind confirmed that they will resolutely respond to any attempt by China to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, according to a Japanese ministry statement Foreign Affairs.

In a 2008 joint declaration, Japan and China committed to developing a mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests, aimed at facilitating regular high-level exchanges on issues such as security and economic collaboration.

But the phrase has become obsolete in recent years as tensions have escalated between historic adversaries over maritime territorial disputes, Taiwan, and more recently since Japan in August began gradually discharging wastewater from its plant damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant, prompting China to impose a ban on Japanese seafood.

Late last month, experts from both sides held talks in the Chinese city of Dalian regarding technical exchanges on Fukushima wastewater discharges, in the first public announcement of such a meeting then that Japan is trying to allay Chinese concerns.

Such exchanges can be a good starting point for addressing mutual grievances, but lower-level functional and technical meetings are seen as having only limited impact on improving relations.

Niigata University's Zhang called for more substantive, high-level exchanges because senior officials do not meet and communicate frequently enough, which could lead to false perceptions on both sides.

The high-level economic dialogue involving several ministers from the two countries should resume as soon as possible, Zhang said. The last such meeting took place in April 2019.

Ryo Sahashi, associate professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said: “There is a widespread perception among Japanese that Japan is lagging behind in Chinese diplomacy, compared to Sino-US dialogue and even to Sino-European trade, but that it maintains stable relations. relations with China through diplomatic efforts remain a key objective of Japanese foreign policy.

Bilateral relations are also under strain as Japan deepens its strategic alignment with the United States, what China calls forming small coalitions to contain its growing power.

Japan's Blue Book also highlights the importance of accelerating trilateral collaboration with the United States and the Philippines to address challenges posed by Beijing in the South China Sea.

It also highlighted the growing importance of Japan's diplomatic structures with its allies and like-minded countries, such as the Group of Seven, the Quad security forum with the United States, Australia and India, and the trilateral relationship with the United States and South Korea.

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The return of reference to strategic and mutually beneficial ties is unlikely to improve the situation, given the deep-seated mutual distrust and the fact that Japan sees China as the biggest strategic challenge, Zhiqun Zhu said, professor of international relations and director of the China Institute at the University of China. Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.

According to Beijing, Japan has been the strongest supporter of the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy. Among all U.S. allies and partners, it follows the United States most closely in U.S. efforts to counter the rise of China.

It is difficult to be optimistic about Japan-China relations in the near future, Zhu said. If Japan continues to adopt the current approach of viewing China as the biggest security challenge and actively supporting US efforts to counter China, Japan-China relations will not be able to improve. improve.