CNN poll: Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge

CNN-

Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden as the campaign and the former president's criminal trial progress, according to a new CNN poll by SSRS. And in the coming rematch, opinions on the first term of each man vying for a second four years in the White House now appear to be in Trump's favor, with most Americans saying that, in hindsight, Trump's tenure Trump's presidency has been a success, while a large majority say Bidens has so far been a failure.

Trump's support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN's last national poll of the race in January, while Biden's support s rises to 43%, which is not significantly different from that of January. 45%.

Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they view Trump's presidency as a success, while 44% view it as a failure. In a poll taken in January 2021 just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, 55% of respondents considered his term as president a failure.

Evaluating Biden's tenure so far, 61% say his presidency has so far been a failure, while 39% say it has been a success. That's slightly worse than the 57% who called the first year of his administration a failure in January 2022, and 41% calling it a success.

Republicans are now more united around the idea that Trump's presidency was a success than Democrats are on Biden's. Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trump's term a success, while only 73% of Democrats say Biden has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump's presidency has been a success, while only 37% view Biden's as a success.

There is some overlap in views on the accomplishments of the two most recent presidents, with 14% of Americans saying they view both as failures, while 8% view both as successes. About half of registered voters, 47%, view Biden's presidency so far as a failure while saying Trump has been a success, while just 30% say Biden has been successful and Trump has not summer. Public opinion of former presidents generally improves in retrospect, although no other modern president has attempted a similar return to power after an electoral defeat.

Negative views of Biden's work in office have persisted through much of his presidency. In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his handling of the job and 40% approve, about the same as CNN's polling for more than a year. Even Biden's highest approval ratings in the poll are also in negative territory, with 45% approving of his handling of health care policy and 44% approving of his handling of student debt. And his worst approval rating for his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including 81% disapproval among those under 35 and a majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).

Biden's approval ratings for the economy (34%) and inflation (29%) remain significantly negative, with voters saying economic concerns are more important to them when choosing a candidate than they are were in each of the last two presidential elections. In the new poll, 65% of registered voters call the economy extremely important to their presidential vote, compared to 40% who thought so in early 2020 and 46% who said the same around the same time in 2016. Voters who say the economy is deeply important to Trump in his matchup against Biden, 62% to 30%.

A large majority of Americans, 70 percent, say economic conditions in the United States are poor, and many, particularly Republicans, believe their views would be more affected by a political change than by a change in the economy itself. even. About 4 in 10 people in this group (41%) say a change in political direction in Washington would do more to change their impression of the economy than a lower inflation rate, a change in their personal financial situation or a sustained increase in the economy. sotck exchange. About 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) who believe the economy is in bad shape say a change in leadership would change their view, compared with 13% of Democrats who think the same.

After politics, a drop in the inflation rate could change the minds of a sizable share of those who believe the economy is in bad shape (37% think so), and far fewer cite a positive change in their finances personal (14%) or an increase in the stock market (3%) as having the same effect.

Americans' perceptions of their own finances also remain negative, with 53% saying they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, while 47% are satisfied. Dissatisfaction is significantly widespread among low-income people (67% dissatisfied in households with an annual income of less than $50,000). , people of color (64% say they are dissatisfied) and young Americans (61% of those under 45 say they are dissatisfied).

When it comes to other priority issues for the upcoming election, 58% of voters consider protecting democracy an extremely important issue, the only other issue tested that a majority considers central to their choice. Nearly half consider immigration, crime and gun policies very important (48% each), health care (43%), abortion (42%) and appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court (39%), each being very important to about 4 in 10 voters. At the low end, only 33% consider foreign policy important, 27% consider climate change, 26% consider the war between Israel and Hamas and 24% consider student loans.

There remain sharp partisan differences over the issues most crucial to choosing a president. Among Democratic-aligned voters, protecting democracy (67%), abortion (54%), the economy (52%), gun policy (51%), and health care (49%) are all key issues for about half or more, while on the GOP-aligned side it's the economy (79%), immigration (71%), crime (65%) and then democracy (54%).

Candidate impressions

Beyond the questions, impressions of the two candidates remain predominantly negative (58% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, 55% of Trump), and a slight majority of voters, 53%, say they are dissatisfied with the candidates, among whom they must choose. in this year's presidential race.

A significant 17% of registered voters say they have unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Trump, and when choosing between the two they opt for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying they would vote for someone else. ignore the contest completely or just don't know who they would support.

Among all voters, when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included in the matchup, Trump holds 42% to Biden's 33%, with Kennedy at 16%, West at 4% and Stein at 4%. 3%. Kennedy pulls 13% each from Biden and Trump supporters in the initial two-way showdown.

In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, the poll finds Biden faring worse than in previous CNN polls among younger voters, trailing Trump by a margin of 51% to 40% among voters under 35 years. largely due to those who did not vote in 2020. Excluding this group, voters aged 18 to 34 in this poll split between 46% for Biden and 47% for Trump. Although not all polls publish crosstabs or use the same age ranges when reporting results, other recent polls have shown a wide range of results for younger voters when testing for a showdown between Trump and Biden, ranging from an 18-point advantage for Trump among the youngest. 30 in the Fox News poll in mid-March, up to a 21-point advantage for Biden among those under 30 in the Pew Research survey from earlier this month.

Among all voters, Biden remains at a slight disadvantage to Trump in terms of the share of voters who have ruled out voting for him: 52% say there is no chance they will support him, while 47% % say there is no chance they will support him. According to Trump, both numbers are similar to the level found in a fall CNN survey. A small share of registered voters (5% for Biden and 3% for Trump) say that even if they don't currently support this candidate, they would consider him.

But the poll reveals that Biden and Trump voters simply don't understand each other. Among those who don't currently support Biden, 66% say they don't understand why anyone would support him, and 63% of those who don't support Trump say they don't understand why anyone would support him.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS April 18-23 among a national probability sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability panel, including 967 registered voters. Surveys were conducted either online or over the phone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. For the results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.8 points.

CNN's Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.

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