Martin Liby Troein: First Brexit, then Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, now the British are on the way to the next earthquake

Tori's nightmare comes true. At least that's what many thought when Liz Truss was forced to resign as Prime Minister. During her time in Downing Street, no longer than the lifespan of a salad, she conducted an economic experiment that sent interest rates through the roof and the pound plummeting. His conservative party collapsed in public opinion. Now, could it even get better?

But as Britain holds local elections on Thursday, the Conservatives find themselves stuck at the bottom of the standings. In the latest Yougov survey, that figure is 20 percent, a percentage point higher than Truss had mustered just days before his resignation. This is a party that in the last election reached 44 percent and in the disastrous 1997 elections got 31 percent.

Successor Rishi Sunak I've tried most things. He was almost the adult in the room, brought David Cameron into government and secured a deal with Brussels on Northern Ireland. This is how he waged a culture war and recently pleased the critical right on immigration matters, among other things by promising to deport refugees to Rwanda. Nothing helped.

The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years. Austerity policies, Brexit, Boris Johnson's pandemic parties and Liz Truss's bravado have all burned through confidence. Voters are ready to try something new. Labor leader Keir Starmer has cleaned up after his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and may seem a little sad, but also a safe bet.

If it were just a matter of the Conservatives being far behind Labor and Britain facing a change of power in the general election which will be held no later than January next year, it would not There wouldn't be much to say.

However, if the Conservative Party catches up in the polls, the dynamic will be disrupted. The election system is transitioning from being protected to potentially peak hours.

Which Gr the particular situation is not that the party is facing a crushing defeat, but that the right-wing populist Reform UK, successor to Nigel Farage's UKIP and later the Brexit Party, is nibbling away at the Conservatives from the rear . In the Yougovmtningen they obtained 13 percent.

The majority voting system made it almost impossible to upset the two major parties. A right-wing voter who votes for a right-wing party other than the one most likely to win in a constituency loses his or her vote. In the by-elections that have taken place so far, Reform UK has also collapsed.

However, if the Conservative Party catches up in the polls, the dynamic will be disrupted. The electoral system is moving from protection to potential slide.

Maybe it's This is unlikely to be the case. Reform UK is poorly organized and struggles to produce candidates. Farage himself, who has recently enjoyed reality TV and his own show on the new right-wing channel GB News, remains in the background rather than fully investing in the new party. The question is rather how Reform UK affects the Conservatives.

Most things suggest the local elections will end in a star crash, and perhaps more demands for Rishi Sunak to resign. In all circumstances, there is a great risk that conservatives will turn sharply to the right to face the threat from populists. Conservatives have many supporters who see possibilities in such a change, but the base would like nothing better.

Fundamentally pro-EU Conservative politicians, such as David Cameron, have disparaged Brussels and promised a membership renegotiation and referendum to keep Eurosceptics in good spirits. It ended with Brexit.

Liz Truss, who remains in Parliament, blames her failures at Downing Street on a deep state conspiracy and stood in the corner on stage with Steve Bannon. Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman warns immigration will freeze Britain. And there is speculation about Nigel Farage that he will do what Donald Trump did with the Republicans. And acquire the conservatives.

It's sad to see one of the most traditional center-right parties in the Western world develop like this. The similarities with the Republicans are particularly evident, where moderate forces have tolerated extremists, hoping to be able to control them and then be absorbed.

Fundamentally pro-EU Conservative politicians, such as David Cameron, have disparaged Brussels and promised a membership renegotiation and referendum to keep Eurosceptics in good spirits. It ended with Brexit. Rishi Sunak and his colleagues then gave space and credibility to the right-wing culture war and resistance to immigration only to now risk being swallowed up by it themselves.

Unfortunately, similarities can also be seen with the journey undertaken by the Swedish bourgeoisie.

Ls sea:

Martin Liby Troein: Sara Skyttedal and Jan Emanuel pave the way for Swexit

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