Iraq's most stable period in 30 years: closer ties with Ankara, declining relations with Washington

Shafaq News/The Atlantic Council Institute provided analysis of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first visit to Iraq in more than a decade, and his first visit as president, after years of strained relations.

The visit paved the way for a new phase of strategic cooperation in vital areas such as energy, trade and security, amid a loss of confidence in Baghdad and Ankara over US influence in the region. .

The report suggests that “the convergence of interests between Ankara and Baghdad could lead Iraq to its most stable period since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.” Erdogan's visit laid the foundations for increased regional stability and prosperity, with indirect ramifications for the Kurdistan Region. “

Describing Iraqi-Turkish relations over the past decade as tense, due to controversial issues such as the legal battle over the Kurdistan Region's oil exports via pipelines to Turkey, Turkish military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party Kurdistan (PKK) on Iraqi soil and disputes over water flow. of the Tigris and Euphrates, the report notes that “against the context of upheaval in the Middle East, Turkish and Iraqi leaders increasingly recognize the need to protect their interests and support stability through regional cooperation.”

The report said the United States and Iran indirectly played a role in instigating the visit. “Despite Iraq's public calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces, Iraq continues to rely on aid and financial assistance from Washington to fight terrorism. However, Baghdad seeks to reduce this dependence by strengthening security and development cooperation with Turkey and the Gulf States.”

At the same time, the report suggests that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani must “carefully manage Iranian influence while balancing or diminishing it, and developing relations with Turkey represents another dimension of this strategy.”

The report quotes an observer in Erbil as saying that “the symbolic purpose of the Iraqi visit is to demonstrate Baghdad's successful relations with its northern and southern neighbors, and not just its dominant eastern neighbor.”

He also cites a commentator comparing Baghdad's relations with Turkey to the historical significance of the gates built by the Abbasid caliph Abu Jaafar al-Mansour, particularly the gate facing Khurasan, suggesting that “the Baghdad Gate was not not only open to Iran and Khurasan.”

The report suggests that the loss of confidence in US plans for the region provides Turkey and Iraq, both US allies, with additional incentives for cooperation. “However, Iraqis and Turks are skeptical of the United States' commitment to stability, sovereignty and democracy in the region, while regional observers question whether the United States has deterred militarily Iran in Iraq or Syria, or if they are even capable of doing so.”

Additionally, the report draws attention to the fact that the United States has supported a major development and transportation project, the Indian Corridor, surpassing both Turkey and Iraq.

He said the fight against the Indian corridor project has boosted efforts to recalibrate bilateral relations between Baghdad and Ankara, with emphasis on the proposed “development road” linking the major port of Faw in the governorate. from Basra to global markets via Turkiye, with investments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, thereby integrating Iraq into regional and global economic networks.

Among approximately three agreements between Baghdad and Ankara, the report suggests that from Turkey's perspective, “cooperation and legal authorization of its operations against the PKK constitute the most urgent area for tangible progress.”

The report noted positive descriptions of the visit in Iraqi and Turkish media, with Turkish reports emphasizing the diplomatic finesse and strategic determination of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, focusing on potential mutual economic gains and emphasizing the expected benefits of the “Development Road” project, such as its risk of eroding PKK control over large areas of northern Iraq. Iraqi media highlight long-standing issues that need to be resolved as well as vast opportunities for development and improvement of relations.

Kurdish coverage of the visit commends officials and experts for Turkish engagement in Iraq, emphasizing the need for Ankara to maintain strong relations with Erbil and Baghdad to prevent the Kurdistan Region from enjoying the benefits of close relations.

The report states that “this obvious new chapter in bilateral relations has limits and carries risks. One limitation is the Iraqi government's limited ability to access the PKK, given its limited military and intelligence resources in remote border areas where the PKK is active.

“It is possible that Baghdad could offer potential support to counter the PKK in order to persuade Ankara to reduce its support for the Kurdistan Regional Government, but such a possibility poses a strategic risk that Ankara must be careful with, given Ankara's close relations and Erbil brought significant economic and security benefits to both.”

The report also discusses continued Iranian influence in Baghdad and doubts about Turkish influence there, something its allies and clients will certainly seek to downplay.

“The Development Road adds a new economic dynamic to the bilateral equation, making the promise of strengthened neighborly relations more substantial than previous expressions of intent.”

He further asserted that in the increasingly turbulent regional framework, coupled with the new economic project supported by the Gulf, the current axis could indeed have strategic importance, potentially leading to the most stable period between neighbors of the Iraq since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.