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Joe Biden's chances of losing to Donald Trump, according to polls

Joe Biden's chances of losing to Donald Trump, according to polls

 


President Joe Biden's chances of losing to former President Donald Trump in this year's presidential election have declined only slightly in recent weeks, despite concerns about the president's health, according to recent polls.

Biden is under increasing pressure after a lethargic and at times confusing performance in his June 27 debate with Trump, prompting at least 18 sitting Democratic lawmakers to call on him to resign and make way for another candidate.

Although many polls have shown Biden has suffered a loss of support since the debate, the race remains essentially deadlocked, as Trump's lead over the president is still well within the margin of error of most polls that show Biden trailing.

An average of recent polls from the polling site FiveThirtyEight shows Trump with a 2.1% lead over Biden nationally, up from a 0.2% lead on debate day.

President Joe Biden, left, is pictured Thursday at a news conference in Washington, D.C., while former President Donald Trump, right, is pictured Tuesday at a rally in Doral, Fla. Recent polls show Trump has slightly increased his lead over Biden since last month's presidential debate. More Kent Nishimura; Joe Raedle

New national polls released this week by YouGov/The Economist and Ipsos/Washington Post/ABC News show Trump leading by 3 points and the race tied, respectively.

FiveThirtyEight’s election simulations, which use polling data and other factors, also suggest a razor-thin margin of victory for the November winner. As of Thursday night, Trump has won in 51 of 100 simulations, while Biden has won in 49.

Before the debate, each candidate won 50 out of 100 simulations, indicating that Trump received only a minimal boost to his chances of winning despite the post-debate focus on Biden's fitness.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Biden campaigns by email Thursday evening for comment.

In most key states, polls have also moved only modestly in Trump's favor since the debate.

In Wisconsin, Trump leads by 1.4% in the FiveThirtyEight average, with Biden holding a 0.2% lead over Trump on June 27.

However, Biden had a 3% lead over Trump in Wisconsin in the most recent poll, from Morning Consult/Bloomberg, with Trump leading in polls taken immediately after the debate.

Trump received a bigger boost in Pennsylvania, where the FiveThirtyEight average shows his lead growing from 0.8% on the day of the debate to 3.3% on Thursday.

In Michigan, the former president was leading Biden by an average of 0.5% on Thursday, a slight increase from his 0.3% lead on June 27.

Trump's 5.2 percent average lead in Georgia is down slightly from 5.3 percent on June 27. Leads in Nevada and Arizona have increased from 2.7 percent to 4.8 percent and from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent, respectively.

Although Biden still appears to be leading in most major polls less than four months before Election Day, it is unclear to what extent the fallout from the debate and calls for his resignation have lastingly damaged his campaign.

The New York Times reported Thursday that the Biden campaign is conducting internal polling on a potential matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is perhaps the president's most likely replacement if he resigns.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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