The path to peace in Ukraine through territorial concessions to Russia?

The path to peace in Ukraine through territorial concessions to Russia?

Kiev Mayor Vitaly Kliko was thinking out loud about the possibility of a territorial compromise to end the war. This surprised many. What does he want to achieve and what do Ukrainian citizens think about concessions to Russia? I am talking about this hot topic in Ukraine Lilia Rzheutska I Victoria Vlasenkoiji adverb for DWwith slight adaptations in text and material, we transmit in its entirety.

In recent weeks, the possibility of the Russian invasion of Ukraine ending at the negotiating table has again been intensively discussed. Examples include the so-called peace mission of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which he initiated on his own, as well as the statement by US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump that “a war will break out within 24 hours.” Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, speaking about the peace plan, referred to the territorial reality before February 2022, when the Russian invasion began. At that time, Crimea had already been annexed and parts of Lugansk and Donetsk were occupied by Russia.

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But the real surprise was prepared by Kiev Mayor Vitaly Kliko, who raised the possibility of a territorial compromise. So far, Ukrainian investors have avoided such formulations. Official kyiv insists on the 1991 borders. “Will the Ukrainian president continue the war with new victims and new destruction or will he have to consider a possible territorial compromise with Putin? If so, what will be the pressure from the United States in case of 'Trump's victory? How will he explain to his own population that they have to give up parts of the territory for which thousands of our heroes gave their lives?'” Kliko asked in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. He said that in this case, President Volodymyr Zelensky would probably have to hold a referendum on possible territorial compromises.

Do such statements mean that Ukraine is open to diplomatic solutions? And is this acceptable to the country's population and Western partners?

Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the kyiv Center for Political Research “Penta”, calls the statements of the mayor of Kiev a “false start”. Because, Fesenko reminded, there are currently no real peace negotiations, but only initiatives and plans that do not constitute a good basis for negotiations. He added that Kliko makes such statements with the aim of political confrontation with President Zelensky, with whom he has been in conflict for years. “Kliko fuels the current fear of the population of a secret agreement. But there are no secret agreements yet, and there are no peace negotiations either,” Fesenko said. He added that it is impossible to conclude a secret agreement anyway, because it would have to be implemented with the support of society. “That is when consent would be necessary in a referendum, so that Zelensky does not make concessions himself.”

Roger Hilton of the Bratislava-based international think tank GLOBSEC says the difficult two years of war that have preceded it have forced some Ukrainian politicians to talk about possible territorial concessions. “The fact that we hear such comments from someone like Mayor Klik is an acknowledgement that difficult political decisions lie ahead for the country,” Hilton says. He adds that such statements could be an internal political test of how much Ukrainian society supports this position. Hilton says Kliko has never hidden his desire to become president and is therefore using the opportunity to score political points on the basis of a peaceful solution. Hilton says that because of the war, presidential elections have not been held this year and that such statements could therefore be seen as part of the pre-election campaign. He also believes that territorial concessions would also be bad for Europe.

“I think most Western allies would not accept Ukraine giving up any territory, because it would pose a series of insoluble problems for Europe. Moreover, on a global scale, it would set a precedent for other authoritarian regimes that want to illegally annex certain areas,” Hilton concludes.

According to polls from spring 2023, the number of those who would be ready to make concessions for the sake of peace is growing. In May of this year, there were 32 percent, and in May 2023, only 10 percent. The majority of respondents, 55 percent, are opposed to any territorial concessions to Russia. This is data from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). If we compare the figures for the period from May 2022 to May 2023, only eight to ten percent of respondents were ready for territorial compromises, and the vast majority – from 82 to 87 percent – ​​were against any concessions.

TIME FOR NEGOTIATIONS

On possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, she wrote for DW in mid-July. Lilia Rzheutskaya. Here are some of his thoughts:

In Ukraine, there is increasing talk of peace negotiations with Russia. In the past, President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to negotiate with the current Russian leadership and even issued a decree that negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin were completely excluded. But the situation is obviously changing. Zelensky now believes that Russian representatives should be present at the second “peace summit” that Ukraine plans to hold in November. At the same time, 44 percent of Ukrainians living behind the front line believe that it is time to start official negotiations between kyiv and Moscow, 35 percent are against it, and 21 percent are undecided. These are the results of a survey conducted by the Ukrainian Razumkov Research Center on behalf of the ZN.UA Internet portal from June 20 to 28, 2024. But according to the poll, Ukrainians are categorically opposed to Kiev fulfilling the recent conditions set by Putin for ending the war. Nearly 83 percent of respondents reject the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions that are not under Moscow's control. About 84 percent of respondents are against the transfer of these territories to Russia. In addition, 77 percent of respondents are against lifting all Western sanctions against Russia.

When asked what is the minimum condition for concluding a peace agreement with Russia, more than 51 percent of respondents say that Ukraine must be liberated from the Russian occupation forces within the 1991 borders. Although the majority of Ukrainians want to return to these borders, every second Ukrainian (46 percent) believes that there is no shame in refusing military service. Only 29 percent of them disagree, and 25 percent are undecided.