Who is Xi Jinping, the lesser evil of the American presidential election?

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (EPA; AP/Yonhap)

Among the many countries interested in the ultra-tight American presidential race, we cannot leave China out. Posts on Chinese social media platform Weibo featuring a hashtag for the US presidential election received 14.8 billion views and accumulated 3.75 million comments, indicating an extremely high level of interest. The hegemonic struggle between the United States and China has been going on for almost ten years now, and the next American president will have a huge impact on China over the next four years.

Even Chinese political events are impacted by the US presidential election. Last month, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), the state's top legislature, announced that it would meet from November 4 to 8. Normally, the NPCSC only meets during even months (February, April, etc.), yet the committee is expected to meet right around the time of the U.S. presidential election and when we have an idea of ​​the results.

Reuters reported that the NPSCS was considering economic stimulus measures that would raise China's debt ceiling by an additional 10 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion). Reuters predicts that China could raise its debt ceiling further if Trump is elected.

Which candidate does China favor: Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party or former US President Donald Trump of the Republican Party? Scholars who study international relations related to China say that no matter who is elected, the fundamental structure of the strategic competition between the United States and China will not change too much and that the changes will be minimal.

Although some sticking points in the US-China conflict have changed between the Trump administration and the Biden administration, no fundamental changes have been made to the competitive relationship between the two countries in terms of economics , foreign policy and national security.

Our competition with the United States is a constant that cannot change, Jin Canrong, professor and associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, said at a recent forum.

Washington's strategies will be difficult or tricky, depending on who wins the election, he said.

Delving into the details, the two candidates aren't that different. Harris will likely continue the Biden administration's policy of cooperating with allies like South Korea, Japan and the EU to pressure China in cutting-edge sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Trump, for his part, prioritizes American interests over Washington's allies, perhaps even to the point of becoming isolationist. He pledged to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and said he knew Xi Jinping very well. When it comes to China, Harris is picky but predictable, while Trump is forceful and unpredictable but has the potential to thaw the current freeze in U.S.-China relations.

In an interview with Hankyoreh, an international relations researcher at a Chinese public policy institute who requested anonymity said: No matter who wins, the overall structures of U.S.-China relations will not change. .

In terms of maintaining stable relations with the United States, China prefers a democratic administration, they added.

Harris has said she will continue the policies of the Biden administration, the researcher continued, although it is unclear what type of political policies Trump will launch if elected.

Wang Hsin-hsien, acting director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told the Hankyoreh that China would likely prefer Harris.

The Biden administration has opened communication channels with Beijing in various areas over the past three years, Wang added.

China has painstakingly opened these communication channels and wants to maintain them, he said.

It's not necessarily a bad thing for China if Trump is elected, Wang added.

Trump is a businessman and will want to make a deal. He also does not appear to trust U.S. allies, and so could break the current international blockade around China and bring about a change in U.S.-China relations, he continued.

Some even say China probably prefers a Trump presidency. Wu Qiang, a former professor at Tsinghua University and an independent political commentator in China, told German newspaper Deutsche Welle: Trump's return to the White House would be a major advantage for China, as it would mean deeper divisions within of American democracy.

Amid division with global allies in Europe and the Americas, the United States will return to a new form of isolationism, which was already evident during Trump's previous term, Wang added.

In short, Trump's election could signal an American crisis, which would be an opportunity for China.

In 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, Trump announced the United States' withdrawal from the World Health Organization. In 2019, he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris climate accords. He pressured South Korea to increase its financial contribution to stationing American troops and suggested that the United States would withdraw from NATO. At the same time, China was striving to establish itself as a new leader in the international community. China has provided the COVID-19 vaccine it developed to countries in Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, and has played a leading role in organizations like the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, designed to challenge a US-led world order.

By Choi Hyun-june, correspondent in Beijing

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