What happens now to Donald Trump's legal affairs?

Donald Trump during his trial in Manhattan Criminal Court, New York, April 23, 2024. YUKI IWAMURA / AP

When Donald Trump embarked on his third run for the White House, he not only had his country's interests in mind, but he might have his own as well. The former and future president of the United States faces charges in four separate cases. His return to the Oval Office next January should put an end to at least two of the four proceedings initiated against him and compromise the pursuit of the other two.

January 6 attempt to overturn presidential election results

Indicted on August 2, 2023, for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and prevent Congress from certifying the results on January 6, 2021, Trump should not be further troubled by the serious accusation of “conspiracy against the United States.” “

Special counsel Jack Smith, who is investigating this matter as well as the matter involving Trump's handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence, asked a Washington, D.C., judge on Friday (November 8) to suspend legal proceedings until December. 2 “to allow the government time to assess this unprecedented situation and determine the appropriate course of action moving forward.”

The U.S. Department of Justice prohibits a sitting president from being indicted in federal cases. This policy, in effect since 1973, prevents federal prosecutors from bringing charges against the U.S. president on the grounds that such a charge would “unconstitutionally impair the ability of the executive branch to carry out its constitutionally assigned functions.” “.

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to “fire” Smith. After his inauguration on January 20, the new president is expected to appoint an attorney general who could order criminal charges dropped and dismiss the special prosecutor.

In early 2029, at the end of his second term, Trump will once again become an actionable citizen, but a July 1, 2024, Supreme Court ruling that significantly expanded the president's criminal immunity could complicate possible future prosecutions. With Trump re-elected, it is unclear whether the indictment, revised by Smith's team in August 2024 after the Court's ruling, could withstand the Court's scrutiny and likely calls from Trump's lawyers for them to stand trial.

Classified documents at Mar-a-Lago

The case of illegal storage of classified government documents at Trump's Florida residence will likely meet the same fate as the January 6 case. The difference, however, is that the charges have already been dismissed in July 2024. Federal Judge Aileen Cannon ruled, contrary to 25 years of federal legal precedent, that Smith's appointment was illegal.

Smith's team appealed the decision on August 26. The accused having returned to power, the issue of this appeal, still ongoing, is no longer so much the continuation of the proceedings against Trump as the annulment of Judge Cannon's decision, which risks weakening him. the ability of the judiciary to appoint special prosecutors.

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Judge Cannon's decision came under heavy criticism last summer, especially since she was appointed by Trump himself in May 2020 and this was not her first surprising ruling in favor of the former president. Indeed, many observers and former federal judges have publicly questioned Cannon's impartiality. According to ABC News, his name is currently being circulated as a possible candidate for the post of US Attorney General.

Attempted voter fraud in Georgia in 2020

In this case, Trump and 14 others are accused of trying to change the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia and subvert the will of its voters. After a two-and-a-half-year investigation by Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis, Trump was indicted in August 2023 by a grand jury on 13 counts.

But unlike the January 6 cases and the classified documents, Trump is not being prosecuted by the federal justice system, but rather by the justice system of the state of Georgia. The federal Department of Justice in Washington, D.C., has no power over state court systems. Additionally, in the highly unlikely event that Trump is convicted by a state judge before he takes office on January 20, 2025, he would not be able to pardon himself, since this power only applies to federal convictions. Only the state governor has this power. This is why Trump's lawyers have been trying, since the summer of 2023, to take the case out of Willis's hands and make it a federal case, without success.

The future of the case remains very uncertain at the moment. Experts say it is unlikely that a state judge will allow Willis to prosecute Trump once he becomes president again, due to the same constitutional concerns that prevent the Justice Department from prosecuting him at the federal level.

This matter could therefore be frozen as long as Trump is president. But even if he is suspended, he may not survive the attacks from Trump's lawyers.

They have two options. The first is to disqualify Willis and take the matter out of his hands. Trump's lawyers made a first request in January 2024, but the judge in charge of the case, Scott McAfee, rejected it. They appealed, and the case is still ongoing, with hearings for both sides scheduled for December 5. A decision is not expected until March 2025. Many legal experts believe that if Trump's defense succeeds in firing Willis, no other state prosecutor will take up the mantle. case.

If Trump's appeal fails, the case will likely go to the Georgia Supreme Court for a final decision. And even if Trump's lawyers fail to remove Willis from the case, the chances of the case going to trial will diminish over time.

Falsification of business records during the 2016 presidential campaign

On May 30, in the so-called Stormy Daniels case, Trump became the first former president to be convicted in a criminal case when a New York City grand jury upheld all 34 counts against him.

New York Judge Juan Merchan had initially scheduled sentencing for July 11, but the Supreme Court's July 1 ruling on criminal immunity for former presidents forced him to postpone sentencing until July 18. September, then again on November 26. will rule on November 12 on whether he can even impose a sentence. Trump's lawyers could then challenge his decision, arguing that an elected president should be entitled to the same protections as a sitting president, or seek an additional extension, or both.

Experts agree that if Judge Merchan were to pass sentence anyway, a prison sentence for Trump would likely be considered unconstitutional, according to the Financial Times. It is therefore possible that the judge will not be able to pronounce a sentence before Trump leaves the White House. But even if a different sanction were imposed, the future president would almost certainly appeal. At the same time, his lawyers asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to remove the case from local jurisdiction, as they did in Georgia, and make it a federal case, which would be then subject to the influence of a court. Trump administration.

Gary Dagorn

Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher can only be responsible for the French version.

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