Second round of Trump-Mexico confrontation looks worrying for Mexico

MEXICO CITY (AP) Mexico is facing a second Donald Trump presidency, and few countries can match its experience as a target of Trump's rhetoric: There have been threats to close the border, impose tariffs and even sending U.S. forces to fight Mexican drug cartels if the country does not do more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs.

Not to mention the consequences of mass expulsions of migrants who are in the United States illegally on remittances of money sent home by migrants, which have become one of Mexico's main sources of income.

But even though this runoff resembles the first, when Mexico appeased Trump by quietly giving in to his immigration demands, circumstances have changed, and not necessarily for the better. Today, Mexico has a somewhat harsh left-wing ideologue as president in Claudia Sheinbaum, and Trump is not known for handling such relationships well.

In 2019, Andrs Manuel López Obrador, then president of Mexico, was a charismatic, outspoken and popular leader, who seemed to understand Trump, because both had a transactional view of politics: you give me what I want, I'll give you what that you want. . The two later struck up a friendly relationship.

But while Lpez Obrador grew up in the give-and-take politics of the often-corrupt former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Sheinbaum grew up in a family of left-wing activists and gained her political experience within radical university student movements. .

Claudia is more ideological than Lpez Obrador, and so the problem is that I see her potentially responding to Trumpian policies, whether it's, you know, organized crime or immigration or tariffs, with a very more nationalist and chauvinistic of the relationship, said Arturo Sarukhan. , former Mexican ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013.

Sheinbaum made a point of being one of the first world leaders to call Trump on Thursday to congratulate him after the election, but on that call, Trump did two things that may say a lot about how things are going to go.

First, Sheinbaum said, Trump quickly brought up the border to remind him there were problems there. He then asked Sheinbaum to send greetings to Lpez Obrador, with whom Trump said he had a very good relationship. This could suggest that Trump believes that López Obrador, the new president's political mentor, is still in charge, a view shared by some analysts.

Sarukhan said he thought the fact that Sheinbaum is a woman and from Mexico would pose a very significant challenge, an issue as the two begin their relationship.

Trump is unlikely to get drawn into other issues and simply forget about Mexico. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump-Vance transition, said Trump was given a mandate to implement promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.

Not everything has changed for the worse: cross-border trade exceeds $800 billion per year and American companies are more dependent than ever on Mexican factories.

But the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, or USMCA, is about to be revised, and Mexico has made legal changes that Trump could seize on to demand a renegotiation of certain parts of the agreement.

Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico would not give in even if cornered, saying that we would obviously resolve any issues that arise through dialogue, as part of a collaborative process, and that if not, we would would rise, we are ready to do so. this with great unity.

Getting up hasn't worked particularly well before. In 2018, Marcelo Ebrard was Mexico's top diplomat; Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ebrard was essentially complying with U.S. demands to keep asylum seekers in Mexico and accept migrants even if they were not Mexican.

Ebrard simply asked that the deal not be made public to avoid embarrassing Lpez Obrador, Pompeo wrote. (Ebrard later claimed he avoided signing a much worse safe third country deal.)

Today, Ebrard is Mexico's economic secretary and will lead the Mexican delegation in the planned 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement, which Trump greeted cheerfully (I've never seen anyone bend like that, Trump once said of Ebrard). .)

Ebrard on Thursday downplayed any risk this time, saying economic ties between the two countries would prevent Trump from closing borders or imposing tariffs.

I am optimistic. Unlike other countries, we are (the United States') largest trading partner, so if you impose tariffs, it will have repercussions in the United States, Ebrard said. I'm not saying it will be easy, because it's not easy at all, but the relationship with President Trump will be good, because what unites us? These figures, this gigantic economy.

But some former diplomats say any argument that Mexico can avoid friction with the Trump administration is overconfident and that 2025 won't necessarily be like 2019.

Martha Brcena, Mexico's ambassador to the United States from 2018 to 2021, said she did not think Trump would go back on his campaign promises to expel migrants who are in the country illegally. She said Mexican officials who think Trump might tone down his campaign promises because Mexican migrants are needed by the U.S. economy are being too optimistic.

Mexico views the situation from the perspective of economic logic. The logic applied by the Trump campaign on immigration is one focused on issues of national security and cultural identity, Brcena said.

Some of Trump's main policy concerns about restoring U.S. jobs and growing rivalry with China are also found in Mexico.

American and foreign automakers have set up dozens of factories in Mexico, and some in the United States fear that Chinese companies could do the same to take advantage of existing trade rules to export Chinese cars or auto parts to the United States. United.

Sheinbaum's push to pass López Obrador's policies to eliminate independent regulatory and oversight agencies, as well as laws that the U.S. government says could reduce the independence of the judiciary, both of which are required by the CUSMA trade agreement, does not help.

If they proceed to eliminate independent regulators and autonomous bodies, this will constitute a new violation of the USMCA, Sarukhan said. And then it will make things worse. Obviously the big piece will be China and the Chinese footprint in Mexico.

This could lead Trump to demand the renegotiation of all auto industry deals as part of the trade deal.

Regarding efforts to jointly combat the illegal drug trade, this cooperation fell to historically low levels in 2019 and 2020, but modestly encouraging signs were observed. Last week, Mexico announced the seizure in Tijuana of more than 300,000 fentanyl pills after months when the country's total seizures amounted to only 50 grams (or a few ounces) per week.

Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, also appears to be tacitly abandoning López Obrador's strategy of not confronting drug cartels. But neither she nor her predecessor and political mentor could ever accept Trump's plan to send American forces to operate independently on Mexican soil.

It remains to be seen how far Trump could go; he often only makes symbolic gestures to carry out his threats. But Sarukhan noted: I think he will speak loudly and carry a big stick.

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AP Writer Adriana Gomez Licon in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., contributed to this report.

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