Trump is quickly burning through his political capital

On some level, I accept the idea that one person's revenge is another person's reform, so I'm sure Trump could argue that he is appointing reformists. Here again, an arsonist who burns a building will not be mistaken for a reforming architect. Perhaps the arsonist could argue that he couldn't share his vision if he didn't burn down the existing location first.

What will ultimately matter is whether these people can govern as reformers or whether they will only serve as vehicles for Trump's vengeance. And it's hard not to see it all as revenge rather than reform, from creating a list of generals to be fired to threatening to purge apolitical federal staff. It's hard not to see this as anything other than a Vengeance Cabinet.

And politically, it just doesn't make much sense.

Let's say he succeeded in trolling the left and owning the Liberals by getting the Senate to accept his choices of former Rep. Matt Gaetz to lead the Justice Department, former Fox host Pete Hegseth to lead the Department of Defense, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to be director of national intelligence. What will this do for him and his voters in the long term? If the reason we chose these people is pure revenge and they are carrying out what Trump wants to do, is that really going to help him implement a real agenda? If he picks all these first fights with, essentially, the biggest and most important parts of the government, how quickly the unrest created will go from change can be painful, let's be patient, to simple instability is painful, and we must we find a balance to “calm the waters”? Don't believe me, just rewind the tape to Trump's last term.

And it's this question that bothers me more than anything else: why is he so determined to choose the most controversial firebrand he can think of for each post? Why does he want all members of his Cabinet to be armed with maces? Is he that angry at the so-called deep state? Is he so convinced that the government framed him because of Russia or because of the various other civil and criminal cases he has faced? Or is he so convinced that the government knows everything he has done is problematic and fears him?

Are either answers satisfactory to the average voter?

Either Trump is right and the government has been armed to stop him, or the government was right, Trump poses a unique threat and he is trying to weaken the parts of the government that might have the most credibility against him, namely the Army and federal law enforcement. .

Here is the political problem Trump is creating for himself: he now takes full ownership of the entire bureaucracy. There is no fantastical or mythical deep state to blame for failing to deliver on its promises. He appoints people who he believes share his vision, so no excuse for being cornered by the old establishment wing of the GOP (like what happened in his first term).

This time he must keep his promises, and his ability to keep his promises depends on his ability to bring together a stable set of political actors not only to do what he wants, but also, somehow another, to keep his promises to a whole new group of voters who are “trying to keep their promises.” “Trumpism for the very first time.”

If the next six months at the Pentagon are more about which toilets people can or cannot use and who can or cannot defend the country (and believe me, if you watch Rep. Nancy Mace's latest show on where a member of Congress goes to the Pentagon). bathroom, you can see how quickly Hegseth might also try to start a culture war within the Pentagon, and all evidence points to that being his mission), Trump is going to find himself taking more heat for his controversial choice of defense chief as his real choice for the job.

There are many potential landmines that Trump and the newly empowered Republican Party must avoid. We misunderstand their mandate in cultural matters.

What many voters seem to be saying when they vote, culturally, is that they don't like being told how they should behave. There is a fierce libertarian trend in this country, and it can appear to the left or the right depending on the parties in power. If Republicans move from preaching against DEI to imposing their own culture, mandating Bible study in public schools (see Oklahoma) or using gender stereotypes rather than pure merit to decide whether Someone has a place on the front lines of the fight, so they will engage. the same sin they accuse coastal elites of committing, of imposing their own culture on a public that does not agree with all their beliefs.

Live and let live will always be a more comfortable place for a diverse, multi-ethnic democracy than trying to impose one set of values ​​over another.

And this is precisely the risk that Trump has already created by deciding to choose the most controversial firebrand that can be found in some of these key positions. If his choices cause instability, the public will reject this administration faster than they think.

One thing Trump and the Republican Party have already misinterpreted about his so-called tenure is that he was elected despite his personal unpopularity. In other words, he was not elected proactively by the voters who pushed him over the edge; he was elected because of who he was not.

This is not a decision voters made because they like Trump. Rather, they made this decision because they believed the Biden-Harris administration did not understand how they lived their lives. Does Trump understand this? Maybe that's not the case, but he certainly knew how to channel their frustrations into a vote-getting message, and he certainly exposed Democrats as having no idea how the working class fares. carried in this economy.

But these moments of peak political capital are fleeting, and when they're gone, they're gone. Just ask President Joe Biden.

Biden saw the political capital he had accumulated early in his presidency disappear completely during the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, barely a year into his term. What was notable at that point was that Biden was never able to climb out of the hole in approval ratings that resulted from the August 2021 debacle.

I've been wondering for some time why voters abandoned Biden as quickly as they did and why he wasn't given the benefit of the doubt. The conclusion I came to is that voters were never convinced by Biden as president. He was elected not for who he was (Trump), but rather for who he was (Barack Obama's vice president).

And make no mistake, after the tumult of Covid, the voters deciding the election simply wanted calm and stability, not a massive ideological shift in philosophy, but a break from the instability that Trump brought. Well, I think Biden lost a lot of his position with this botched withdrawal because these swing voters thought he might be as erratic or certainly as incompetent (or potentially) as the previous occupant of the Oval Office.

If Biden had won his 2020 Democratic primary campaign the old-fashioned way, by running through the primaries, making his case, building his own political identity, instead of the way he won, by seeing the primary campaign shut down in his momentum by a virus, perhaps the public would have given him a little grace for his first big mistake. But that's not what happened, and the lack of connective tissue between Biden and the electorate did him no favors once his administration was judged on its merits.

Each political party sees its mandate end because of the same problem: a perception of self-improvement. Whether this excess is about cultural norms, the dismantling (er, reform) of government, or simply a misreading of the electorate itself, there is no better recipe for political failure than partisan excess. And there is no better cure for a losing political party than the ability to run against the overreach of the party in power.

The question is whether Trump and his Republican Party understand how they won. If they do not accept the assumption that they won because of who they were not rather than because of who they are, they will see their support erode as quickly for them as for Biden. Right now, Trump is on the verge of going too far, and he hasn't been sworn in yet.

If the first thing out of the box in January is a mass deportation plan that seems as unstable and as irregular as the first round of nominations seems, not only will Trump not have a honeymoon, but he might also see its new Republican candidate, the Republican Party. The controlled Congress is headed for the hills if its approval rating hits as low as Biden's before the end of his first year.

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