Trump's pro-Israel cabinet picks could strain relations with Turkey, analysts warn

US president-elect's choices for his administration raise concerns about impact on relations with Turkey

US President-elect Donald Trump's staunchly pro-Israeli candidates will be the biggest obstacle to improving relations with Turkey, analysts told The Media Line.

Trump's nominee for UN ambassador, Elise Stefanik, said the UN had betrayed Israel and supported defunding UNRWA. Mike Huckabee, who was appointed ambassador to Israel, declared that the West Bank does not exist. The president-elect's pick for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has spoken out against a ceasefire in Gaza and said Hamas is responsible for the deaths of civilians during the war.

Gulru Gezer, a former diplomat who served as Turkey's general counsel in Los Angeles, told Media Line that an emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lead to a regional war, posing risks for Ankara, especially if it involves Iran, which shares a border with Turkey.

I think today they obviously have an extremely pro-Israeli stance and, of course, I wonder how they are going to bring peace to the region and what the repercussions will be. We can see that Netanyahu was only encouraged by the statements made by the government over the past week. I think it's a concern because it's also a security concern for us.

I think today they obviously have an extremely pro-Israeli stance, and of course I wonder how they're going to bring peace to the region and what the repercussions will be. said Gezer, who is now director of the foreign policy program at the Turkiye Economic Policy Research Foundation in Ankara. We can see that Netanyahu was only encouraged by the statements made by the government over the past week. I think it's a concern because it's also a security concern for us.

Ryan Bohl, a Middle East analyst for risk intelligence firm RANE, said the Trump administration's pro-Israel stance would pose the biggest risk to relations with Turkey.

He believed that pressure for annexation of the West Bank would become stronger and that Erdogan should oppose it, although, Bohl said, the Turkish president does not want to completely end relations with Israel.

Erdogan has been heavily criticized for continuing to maintain ties with Israel, particularly on trade, during the Gaza war.

The defeats of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in March local elections across the country were partly blamed on these criticisms, and the Turkish president announced soon after that trade with Israel was ending.

Turkey could position itself diplomatically as a tough and friendly NATO ally. And some Trump hawks are going to want to react and suppress Turkey's relations with Iran, Turkey's relations with Russia, to punish him for that.

Bohl said Erdogan could try to play a global role by criticizing the pro-Israel positions of the United States and its Western allies.

Turkey could position itself diplomatically as a tough and friendly NATO ally, Bohl said. And some Trump hawks are going to want to react and suppress Turkey's relations with Iran, Turkey's relations with Russia, to punish him for that.

Bohl acknowledged that Rubio could also cause headaches for Turkey, particularly given his stance on Iran and his pressure on Ankara over any possible sanctions evasion.

Under Trump's first term, Turkey benefited from an exemption from sanctions against Iran for oil imports.

We are about to see a return to maximum pressure on Iran. This is going to be a problem for the Turks, Bohl told The Media Line. HWe added that Rubio could push for a focus on Turkey's human rights record to boost his chances of running for the Republican nomination again in a future election presidential.

However, Erdogan might view Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s role in the Trump administration as positive. Although he was nominated to head Health and Human Services, Bohl said Kennedy could push Trump to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.This could give Turkey an opportunity to launch another offensive in Syria against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria.

Ankara fears that the presence of Kurdish militia near its border could allow it to launch attacks against Turkey and has strongly opposed Washington's alliance with the group.

This issue led to strained relations when Trump was president.

In 2019, Trump sent a letter to Erdogan, who was preparing to launch an offensive in Syria against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, warning he could destroy Turkey's economy and telling the Turkish president not to not be a badass.

Turkey experienced one of its lowest points in its relations with the United States under Trump when his government imposed sanctions on Turkish officials over the detention of an American pastor.

It was the first time the United States sanctioned a NATO country, and the Turkish lira experienced a free fall.

Trump likes strong leaders and he considers Erdogan to be one of those strong leaders.

However, Gezer hoped that relations between the two leaders would improve, especially compared to those with Biden, who waited four months to speak to the Turkish president after taking office.

Trump likes strong leaders, and he considers Erdogan to be one of those strong leaders, Gezer said.