Turkey wants Trump to break deadlock on F-35 purchases

Until five years ago, Turkey planned to buy 100 units of Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth jets modernize its air force. But the acquisition of a high-end Russian air defense missile system derailed that plan, with the United States banning Turkey from acquiring F-35s over fears the sophisticated Russian system could jeopardize its tiny comeback radar.

Five years later, Ankara hopes the new Trump administration will reverse its ban.

Turkish sources report that the discussions could go beyond a call from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom Donald Trump has established relations. According to BloombergTurkey could agree to restrict its Russian S-400 air defenses in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions. During the summer, Greek media reported that Washington suggested Ankara transfer Russian missile launchers to the American section of Turkey's Incirlik air base, thereby placing them under American supervision.

“If Turkey agrees to a smooth decommissioning of the S-400s by storing them at Incirlik under US supervision, this could significantly accelerate Ankara's reintegration into the F-35 program,” said Suleyman Ozeren, senior lecturer at the 'American University and Senior Researcher at American University. Orion Policy Institute, told Business Insider.

“However, this decision would likely require Moscow’s consent, which represents a complex challenge.”

This is not the only obstacle. As analysts see signs that Trump and Turkey may attempt to dead endany deal could still face resistance within his cabinet and in Congress, which in 2017 passed legislation under which Turkey would later be sanctioned for its acquisition of the S-400 system.

Ali Bakir, a Turkey expert at Qatar University's Ibn Khaldon Center and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, sees “cautious optimism” in Ankara.

He attributes this to the belief that “personal understanding and communication” between Trump and Erdogan will resolve outstanding issues in Turkish-American relations, paving the way for a “new beginning.”

“However, it is important to recognize that Congress also plays an important role in this dynamic,” Bakir told BI. “Congress has often been the most problematic element in US-Turkey relations, rather than the US president.”

“Early indications suggest that Congress may not be particularly friendly to Ankara,” Bakir said.

Ozeren also predicts that Ankara could find “greater room to maneuver” during Trump's second term, especially since Republicans will control the country. House and Senate.

“In theory, this could increase the chances of obtaining US approval for Turkey's return to the F-35 program,” Ozeren said. “Nevertheless, given the deeply strained relations over the past decade, any progress would likely be fraught with pitfalls and setbacks.”

Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm RANE, believes Trump is personally “excited” about selling F-35s to Turkey.

However, Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a Falcon of Russia and China and may prove “less flexible” on the requirements of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which took effect in 2017. Bohl sees “few signs” that the law will be overturned.

“It will therefore remain to be seen whether Trump can overcome these institutional obstacles for a sale to Turkey,” Bohl told BI.

Before Turkey received S-400s, Washington had repeatedly warned Ankara that it would not tolerate F-35s flying in a military that also operates S-400s, fearing it would compromise the weak radar signature observable, essential to the survivability of the aircraft. Placing the Turkish S-400s under American supervision at Incirlik could resolve these problems.

“The damage will never be too severe in terms of relations; what matters is whether the administration and Congress decide that Turkey has done enough to limit the F-35's potential exposure to intelligence and/or gathering Russian information,” says Bohl.

“There will likely be a division between Trump, who tends not to emphasize such risks, and the Pentagon and the intelligence community, who do,” Bohl added. “Even with a soft Defense Secretary compared to Mark Esper in his first term, this consideration may still be in play.”

Turkey has repeatedly claimed over the years that it no longer needs the F-35 since it is developing its own stealth jet, TF Kaan. Despite these claims, Ankara would most likely welcome another chance to acquire the fifth generation produced by Lockheed Martin, in partnership with Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems; its powerful single-engine aircraft is built by Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of RTX Corporation. THE F-35 is piloted by 17 American allies.

“I believe that if the ban on F-35s is lifted, Ankara will definitely want to acquire them, despite other side deals, because Turkey cannot afford to be too dependent on a single player at times. criticism,” Bakir said.

At the same time, Turkey is develop national air defense and never put the S-400 into service in the five years since its receipt. The Ukrainian war in the meantime, where Russian S-400s suffered lossescould reduce the value that Turkey places on them.

“Certainly, the combat performance of the S-400s against Ukraine has been mixed; Turkey may conclude that more advanced F-35s are in its national interest, especially given Israel's recent deployment of F-35s against Iran,” Bohl said.

“At the same time, the F-35s will depend on U.S. supply chains, and these could be interrupted for political reasons or due to other priorities that make resupply difficult.”

Paul Iddon is an independent journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics and history. His articles have appeared in various regionally focused publications.