David Gauke: There is political unrest in Europe's two largest states – but be careful not to indulge in a big Brexit sigh of relief

David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary and was an independent candidate in South West Hertfordshire in the 2019 general election.

For too long, the UK has been viewed with pity by many Europeans.

The exit vote; the Brexit impasse; the Prime Ministerships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Whether sympathetically or not, European observers wondered what was wrong in Britain.

In a way, it's somewhat of a relief that these questions are asked less often today. Unfortunately, this does not so much mean that we have become a resounding success (we have not), but rather that concerns about economic performance and political stability now face the EU's two largest economies.

Germany, once Europe's economic powerhouse, has the worst economic performance of any G7 country compared to its pre-pandemic situation. It was once admired for its strong manufacturing industry, particularly by those who believe that making things matters much more than providing services, but now struggles to cope with high energy prices and competition from China. It also has more to lose if President Trump imposes tariffs on European imports.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz risks being defeated in the legislative elections on February 23. His coalition was never stable but has now collapsed. He will limp along until he is likely to be replaced by Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU with the center-left SPD as junior partners in a new grand coalition. If the Merz government fails to meet the expectations of the German people, the far-right AfD will become a growing force.

France is also faced with its political and economic challenges. When it comes to the economy, it's not so much about growth as it is about fiscal sustainability. Its debt and deficits are too high and it lacks the political will to do anything about it. Michel Barnier tried but, as a result, became the shortest-serving Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic. Populists on the left and right are capable of blocking any attempt at fiscal discipline and hope to oust President Macron. The political center has been emptied and it is not impossible that the two candidates in the next round of the presidential election will come from the extremes. At some point, bond markets' patience may run out.

Europe's problems are not limited to Germany and France. Populism is on the rise across much of the continent. Far-right figures close to Vladimir Putin are already stationed in Hungary and Slovakia, and Czechia will likely follow next year; elections in Romania were disrupted by Russian influence in Romania. At a time when Ukraine needs more support, Europe is poorly placed to provide it.

With struggling economies, political instability and division due to a war on its borders, the EU is no longer as impressive as it was in comparison to the UK. For some, this reinforces the justification for Brexit. Britain, it is said, is better off, no longer chained to a corpse but free to chart its own course in the world.

As a political argument it may have some force. We joined the Common Market in the 1970s, a time when the main continental economies had long surpassed the UK. It was a time of extraordinary economic success for the original six signatories of the Treaty of Rome, with their standards of living rising far more rapidly than ours.

On the other hand, although the 2016 vote to leave the EU is seen as a cry of pain from those left behind, it is a period in which the United Kingdom Uni has performed relatively well compared to much of the EU. We had not been directly involved in the euro crisis and one of the main drivers of the Brexit vote was that our economy was creating so many jobs that we were sucking in high levels of immigrant labor from the rest of the EU. At the very least, the perception of much of the public was that the UK was performing relatively well economically compared to the EU. This perception gave voters the confidence to support Brexit.

It is therefore not surprising that Leavers point to the EU's problems and argue that they justify Brexit. It's an argument that will have some impact, but here are five reasons why it shouldn't.

Firstly, we should not delude ourselves into thinking that just because we are outside the EU, we are immune to difficulties that arise in the EU. I argued earlier that in some ways it is somewhat of a relief that the UK is no longer looked upon with pity by others because those other countries now have their own problems, but when it deals with questions of economic and political stability, it is not a zero. sum game. If a major European economy faces a crisis, we will still be affected. You shouldn't get too carried away by schadenfreude.

Some argue that we are heading towards a new Eurozone crisis and that the Eurozone will not be able to hold up. We have heard this before and the EU has demonstrated sufficient political will to withstand the worst crises of the past. We must also not forget that the relationship with the EU that we rejected did not involve membership of the euro.

Second, and relatedly, Brexit supporters have argued that outside the EU we could engage more fully with other parts of the world. Where exactly? Trump's America does not look like a reliable partner. China is an important part of the global economy, but no one claims that is the answer. Available trade deals with the rest of the world are of marginal economic benefit. The reality is that Europe will continue to be our most important market. The globalization divide since 2016 only strengthens the case for a closer relationship with the EU.

Third, Europe faces real problems, but they should not be overestimated. Economies like Spain and Poland are experiencing strong growth. The European Parliament elections earlier this year saw populist parties doing well, but the largest group was the dominant center-right. A new European Commission was appointed and approved by the European Parliament without much fanfare.

Fourth, a legitimate response to many of the problems facing Europe would be closer integration, not further fragmentation. EU competitiveness would benefit from more integrated capital markets and the facilitation of cross-border service provision. President Trump's military isolationism should encourage greater cooperation at the European level (not necessarily at the EU level) on defense issues. The fight against illegal immigration is more effective on a multilateral basis.

Fifth, focusing on Europe's difficulties can lead to a failure to appreciate the value of, for example, joining the EU single market. The point about joining the single market is that as a member we have had very good access to a very large market on our doorstep. This is a very good thing. Of course, if the rest of the single market grows at 3 percent a year, that's better than 1 percent growth a year, because it will be an even bigger market. But even if it stagnated, it is a very large market which covers a very large part of our trade. Putting barriers to trade with this market remains a mistake.

French prime ministers may come and go, and the German economy may continue to stagnate, but the relationship with the EU will remain vital for us. For those of us who believe that our economic and geopolitical interests require a closer relationship with the EU, our task may be made more difficult by the political and economic difficulties facing Germany and France, but the arguments fundamentals are stronger than ever.