Donald Trump's third term chances, according to Oddscheckers

Paris companies offer chances on President Donald Trump who is potentially looking for a third term, although he is constitutionally unacceptable to the race.

U, Bookmaker K William Hill recently offered odds on Trump's victory in victory in 2028, while the Paris Society online Polymarket has been suggesting that there has been a chance that the Republican could repeal the limits of the presidential mandate.

Newsweek contacted William Hill and Polymarket to comment by e-mail.

Why it matters

Trump seems to take the suggestion that he could arise for as a third unconstitutional mandate, offering legal routes never tested before in American history. Democrats previously warned during the 2024 campaign that Trump would govern as an authoritarian figure if he returned to the White House.

President Donald Trump speaks to the press before signing an executive decree in the White House Oval Office on March 26, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Donald Trump speaks to the press before signing an executive decree in the White House Oval Office on March 26, 2025 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee / Getty images what

Trump told NBC Kristen Welker on Sunday that he “joked” about considering a third mandate in office, adding that there are “methods that you might do.”

An option floated by Welker during the interview is that vice-president JD Vance heads the GOP ticket in 2028 with Trump as a running mate. Vance could then resign once in power in 2029, allowing Trump to assume the presidency for the third time.

Trump added that there are “others too”, but when they were asked for more details, he replied: “No.”

The 22nd amendment to the Constitution declares: “No one will be elected to the president's office more than twice, and no one who held the post of president, or acted as president, for more than two years of a mandate to which another person has been elected president will be elected to the president's office more than once.”

The wording of the 12th amendment also indicates that anyone who is “constitutionally inadmissible” to serve as president cannot be vice-president either.

Any amendment to the Constitution would require approval by a majority of two thirds in the House and the Senate, then the ratification of at least 38 of the 50 American states, which means strong biparisan support would be essential.

Legal experts have largely rejected the suggestions that Trump could circumvent the limits of the terms by first being vice-president.

William Hill is currently making chances of Trump 5/1 to win the 2028 elections at the time of the editorial staff, despite questions about the legality of a third term. The Bookmaker has a 5/2 favorite, with Trump's eldest son Donald Trump Jr., third at 9/1.

Polymarket, an online platform where users are betting on the probability of global events, also offers people the opportunity to bet “yes” or “no” on the question of the repeal of the presidential limit on two mandates.

The site currently gives 5% chance that Trump will sign a bill aimed at repealing or modifying the 22nd amendment, that the Supreme Court is governed in a manner which allows a president to serve more than two terms by July 31, 2025.

A certain number of Trump allies also push the idea that he could arise for a third term because his two terms were not consecutive.

The republican representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee introduced a joint resolution of the Chamber in January to modify the 22nd amendment, proposing that no one is elected president more than three times or purge an additional mandate after having served two consecutive conditions.

The wording of the Ogles proposal would prevent previous presidents with two terms such as Barack Obama or George W. Bush from running again.

Steve Bannon, former chief strategist of the White House and animator of the Podcast War Room, has often argued that the Constitution allows Trump to present himself again because his two terms were not consecutive.

What people say

The former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani previously declared to Newsweek: “Politically, Trump does not have the votes to repeal the 22nd amendment, whether in Congress or to the States. I would expect the Supreme Conservative Court to apply the ban on a third term. Average for him to do so with a third term.”

The law professor of Harvard and constitutional expert Laurence Tribe published on X, formerly Twitter: “Whoever puts a third term Trump by the 22nd amendment + the 12th amendment is considered as by magic: the 22nd does not stipulate the service of the 3rd term, only 3 times.

Derek Muller, professor of law of elections at Notre Dame, told the Associated Press: “I do not think there is” a strange tip “to bypass the limits of presidential term. A president of Duck like Donald Trump has all the incentives in the world to give the impression that he is not a lame duck.”

Senator John Curtis, a Utah Republican, in NBC News in March when asked for a possible third term Trump: “I would not have supported a third term for [former President] George Washington, “he replied laughing.” It's a no, yes. “”

What happens next

Any attempt for Trump to lead a third term in 2028 in one way or another is sure to be noted by legal challenges.

It is currently not planned to take the proposal to modify the ogles to a vote in the House.

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