Tennis Predictions: Best Bets for Montreal and Toronto

The Olympics are over and that means it’s time to really focus on hardcourt tennis. We’re on the road to the 2024 US Open, so the next few weeks are packed with exciting action on the ATP and WTA Tours. This week, the world’s best players are in Montreal and Toronto for the National Bank Open (presented by Rogers). This is a 1000-level event for both the men and women, meaning it’s about as big as a non-major can get. So you’ll see real intensity from everyone involved. Last year, Jannik Sinner won this event on the men’s side. On the women’s side, Jessica Pegula was the champion. Both players will be looking to defend their titles, but both courts are full. With that in mind, let’s get started. Below are some of my favorite tennis predictions and best bets for Thursday, August 8.

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Record 2024: 604-602 (+35.43 units)

Montreal Tennis Predictions

Brandon Nakashima vs. Andrei Rublev

Nakashima has been on a roll lately. The American has won 12 of his last 18 matches and is now 42-22 in all competitions in 2024. Nakashima is also coming off a huge win over Tommy Paul, and is now 3-0 in his head-to-head series with one of the best Americans in the game. Nakashima has simply been healthy for most of the season, which has allowed him to play some of the best tennis of his life. Meanwhile, Rublev has not been great lately. The Russian has lost six of his last 11 matches and some of those performances have been absolutely terrible. With that in mind, I think the American takes a set in this match. I’m also going to throw in the moneyline.

The reality is that Nakashima is serving at an extremely high level. His hold percentage has increased to 88.5% in 2024. That’s not going to make life any easier for Rublev. The Russian’s break percentage has dropped dramatically this season and that’s a big part of why he’s losing matches.

Nakashima is also a level-headed player who keeps his head down and focuses on the task at hand. Rublev can get extremely hot and his temper has gotten the better of him this season. That is quite significant, because I can see him getting a bit frustrated when he tries to break Nakashima's booming serve.

Bet: Nakashima +1.5 sets (-160 – 1.5 units) + Nakashima ML (+180 – 0.5 units)

Kei Nishikori vs. Now Borges

Nishikori secured a shock 6-4, 6-4 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the previous round. This came on the heels of a 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 win over Alex Michelsen in the opening round. The 34-year-old is now given a decent chance by the bookies in his clash with Borges. However, I think there is a considerable gap between the two, which is why I am putting a big bet on the Portuguese player.

Nishikori might have been able to beat Tsitsipas, but that was a match where the world No. 11 couldn’t stay out of his own way. Tsitsipas, who normally has one of the most dangerous forehands on tour, couldn’t do anything on that side of the court. That’s a problem when you also consider that Tsitsipas’ backhand is one of the weakest in tennis. So while it was nice for Nishikori to get a win over a top player, I’m not sure he deserves much credit. And Borges is going to be a lot tougher for him to beat.

Borges may not do much that stands out, but he is a very solid server and he can be quite aggressive from the baseline. Borges takes the ball early and tries to move his opponents around the court. Both of those things should affect Nishikori here. I also just trust Borges' fitness more here. Even if Nishikori comes out and takes a set, will he be able to maintain his level in the third? I have my doubts.

Overall, I just don't see this version of Nishikori as a top-50 player, and I'm not even sure he's a top-100 player at this point. That makes it hard not to like Borges, especially in circumstances that suit him.

Bet: Borges ML (-138 – 2 units)

Toronto Tennis Predictions

Diana Schnaider vs. Coco Gauff

Shnaider has struggled to get to this point in the tournament. She narrowly defeated Harriet Dart in the first round, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (2). Then she won 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 (5) over Magdalena Frech in the Round of 32. All in all, we haven't seen a smooth transition from the Olympics to the hard courts of Toronto so far. However, Shnaider has the weapons to make things difficult for Gauff, who didn't look great in a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Yafan Wang in her first match in Canada.

Gauff is clearly one of the most talented players in the world. She is only 20 years old and has won a Grand Slam title. No one can take that away from her. However, Gauff's forehand is still a serious problem and she is a bit shaky as a server. Until those things change, she is going to have her share of battles. And I imagine this is one of them.

Pressuring Gauff on the forehand side is a way to get the best out of her, and Shnaider has the ability to do that. She is a very powerful player and she is going to hit the ball to that side of the court. So if the American doesn't avoid mistakes and doesn't play with form, she can quickly make mistakes from the forehand wing. I also think Shnaider's ability to punish the ball will put a lot of pressure on Gauff's serve.

Shnaider has also been playing some great tennis recently. She was one of the most impressive players during the grass court season, winning a clay court title in Budapest and then winning a silver medal in doubles at the Olympics. She should come out on court with a lot of confidence, and that will go a long way against this version of Gauff.

Bet: Shnaider +5.5 games (-120 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

I usually have a LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count toward my record and have been a huge part of my success this season. Be sure to check them out. I’ll likely add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I post my Challenger level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.

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