Yakov Trenin is on the Marcus Foligno circuit – Minnesota Wild

Minnesota Wild fans look at the ice and watch the controversial of a forward that their favorite team paid dearly for in the offseason with a four-year contract. He has one point in his last 14 games, and while the Wild have played well, they are still thinking This was the guy Minnesota was supposed to make harder to play against?

The date is December 30, 2017. Marcus Foligno was in the middle of his first season in Minnesota after the Wild traded Jason Pominville to acquire him in a four-player deal, then signed him to a four-year contract contract that summer. The move was met with confusion and skepticism. Foligno has never scored more than 23 points in a season. However, he matched that number in his first year in Minnesota. Foligno also often played on the fourth line, which didn't make his $2.83 million salary any less confusing.

Now we know better, of course. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Foligno has been one of the top defensive wingers in the NHL while scoring 17 goals per 82 games. That skepticism and confusion are definitely a thing of the past.

After his first 14 games in a Wild jersey, Yakov Trenin is in the crosshair of the fan base's skepticism. It's understandable why. Bill Guerin's front office took over Minnesota's limited resources this offseason and splurged on a four-year, $3.5 million AAV for the stalwart winger.

“We needed size,” Guerin explained at the time. “We needed courage.”

Translation: they needed another Foligno.

We are only 4% through Trenin's contract. However,there is already a wave of buyer's remorsespreads through the fan base. One assist in fourteen games will probably do that, but John Hynes doesn't seem to think Trenin can achieve that at all. Hynes has already relegated Trenin to the fourth line, and he's not much further from being healthy.

But while the 0.07 points per game mark sticks out like a sore thumb, the Wilds got the Foligno-type player they paid for.

Foligo's offensive contributions are welcome, but every Wild fan knows why he's in St. Paul. His job is to defend hard… with emphasis on the word 'tough'. He is one of the NHL's heaviest hitters on a team not known for strong lineups. Foligno does both tasks to perfection.

Of the 345 forwards with more than 2,000 minutes at 5-on-5 since the 2020-21 season, Foligno ranks 10th in goals per hour (15.5) and eighth in goals allowed per hour (1.84). Trenin has a similar profile: 31st in goals per hour (11.2) and seventh in goals allowed per hour (1.83).

What has changed for Trenin this year? Not much. The physicality is still there (12.5 per hour) and he has only conceded three goals in 159 5-on-5 minutes. He is also, statistically speaking, the best defensive forward in hockey this year. Trenin's expected goals allowed rate of 1.35 per hour is No. 1 in the NHL (out of 360 forwards with 100+ minutes), meaning he's at the top on a team with defensive standouts like Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy.

Are the points coming now? Probably, at least to some extent. The Wild generate just 1.77 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 with Trenin on the ice, but historically, Trenin has done slightly better than that: his career average in Nashville was 2.36 xG per hour.

We may not see the offensive heights that Foligno had in Minnesota, but things should break Trenin's path a bit if he continues to play this way. It's possible that Trenin's slow start will turn into an uninspiring time in Minnesota, but the safe prediction is that Wild fans will start to see the “Moose”-esque side of “Yak” in due time.

Do you think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you for it. Just fill in this form.