Scientists issue warning about the Hyde Fault in Otago

Five meters underground, what looks like dirt for many of us holds the key to scientists.

“We can observe in those trenches where different layers of sediment have been altered by earthquakes in the past and we can go back in time to older layers. We can date these layers and we can pinpoint the time of past earthquakes,” says University of Otago seismologist Jonathan Griffin.

It is the first in-depth study of the Hyde Fault, which lies west of Hyde and Middle Marsh. It’s also the first time that information has shown that a Hyde bug is active.

“We were able to go back about 60,000 years ago, 65,000 years ago, and find four or four Paleo earthquakes,” Griffin says.

The most recent, says Griffin, was about 10,500 years ago. They occur on average every 12,000 years.

“We think based on the fault length that it could host an earthquake as low as 7,” he says.

If it did, it would likely cause significant damage – especially to an old, unsupported Dunedin building.

“I see Dunedin’s situation as a possible scenario for a future Canterbury earthquake,” warns seismologist Mark Stirling.

Dunedin has been classified as a low seismic risk area – like many of our most populous areas. Accordingly, each has different building codes.

“We need to develop policies to strengthen those buildings, and the new buildings have to be at a much higher level,” says Stirling.

Although the Hyde Fault is considered “quiet” and not as well known as the Alpine Fault, the impact it can have remains to be considered.

“The first thing is awareness of local seismic hazards,” Stirling says.

As a city, Dunedin has not been hit by a strong earthquake but that doesn’t mean it will never be.

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