The next earthquake in the Bay Area may be caused by the Santa Rosa fault

The double tremors that rocked Santa Rosa on Tuesday evening, and a small tremor near the town of Sonoma on Wednesday, were just a warning of the continuing threat of a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Researchers say the Rodgers Creek Fault, which runs from San Pablo Bay north through central Sonoma County and was responsible for Tuesday night’s shocks, could become the source of the next major earthquake in the Bay Area. The rift is a major thread along the boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates, which rub against each other as they creep in opposite directions.

A 4.4-magnitude earthquake struck Santa Rosa at 6:39 p.m. Tuesday, followed by a 4.3-magnitude aftershock one minute later. They smashed picture frames from the walls, slashed water pipes and rattled nerves.

The US Geological Survey has fixed the epicenter on the portion of the Rodgers Creek Fault that runs under the Hidden Valley neighborhood near Fontangrove in northeastern Santa Rosa.

Above the subsurface epicenter—the quakes originated about 3.5 miles underground—neighbors were stunned that the quake ruptured beneath their feet causing no further damage. In her home off Parker Hill Road, Carolyn Anderson was sitting in a rocking chair when she felt the first shock, and two pictures fell off the wall. She looked at her husband and said, “I felt like he was under the house.”

According to the USGS, it was.

Across the street, 15-year-old Charlie Scooby was watching Rick and Morty on TV when the whole house shook “as if his legs had grown and he was starting to walk.”

The Rodgers Creek Fault is the northern spur of a fault ending in the hills north of Healdsburg and extending southeastward through central Santa Rosa and under San Pablo Bay, where the Hayward Fault becomes the most famous, which extends under Urban East Bay and a major rupture occurred in 1868.

Scientists estimate that these related faults have a 33% chance of a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or higher before 2043. These projections were made by a group of scientists with the USGS, the Southern California Seismic Center, and the California Geological Survey. As the most likely sources of the next devastating earthquake in the Gulf region.

The Rodgers Creek Fault is a right-sided slip fault, where scientific terminology means vertical fractures in the Earth’s crust as plates move horizontally and rub against each other.

“We’re sitting here between two large-scale tectonic plates,” said Susan Hecker, a research geologist with the USGS Seismic Science Center in Moffett Field, who has studied the history of the Rodgers Creek fault.

The fault bends to the right in Santa Rosa, she said, a feature that may create a greater potential for straining along the fault.

The Alameda County Courthouse in San Leandro was seen in the aftermath of the massive 1868 earthquake at the Hayward Fault, which is linked to the Rodgers Fault and another major rupture could occur in the coming decades.

Hayward District Historical Society / Courtesy of The Chronicle

Two earthquakes in 1969—magnitude 5.6 and 5.7—rattled Santa Rosa, causing severe damage to at least 74 buildings that included historic downtown works and new buildings and homes. About a third of the 74 buildings sustained irreparable damage, according to the USGS.

On Tuesday, Brooks Anderson was collecting litter to put out on litter night when he heard a rattling and then felt a thump — as if a semi-van had crashed into the house. A group of his oil paintings depicting the coast of Maine fell off the walls.

“I wasn’t sure if a plane had gone down nearby – it was so loud,” said Anderson, who is an artist.

Then moments later, a second knockout hit struck. More paintings fell to the floor.

Hecker said Wednesday’s quake was not related to any fault identified. No smaller earthquakes were reported earlier this week across the Bay Area, including a 2.9-magnitude quake that shook East Bay on Sunday.

Earthquakes in the seismically active Gulf region can be caused by unmapped subsurface faults.

“It happens all the time everywhere in the Bay Area,” Hecker said. “Most of these are not related to each other.”

Researchers believe that the North San Andreas Fault, which runs through the South Bay, Point Reyes, and other areas of the Bay Area, is unlikely to cause the next major earthquake. That’s because the devastating 1906 earthquake – with a magnitude of 7.9 – released a huge tension along this fissure. The USGS reported a 6.4% chance of a rupture greater than 6.7 degrees before 2043 on the northern end of the 800-mile fault, compared to a 19% chance of a major earthquake in southern San Andreas near the Mojave in Southern California.

USGS scientists have found evidence showing that the Rodgers Creek fault ruptured significantly in the early to mid-1800s. They are studying whether a recently discovered connection between the Rodgers Creek and Hayward faults under San Pablo Bay might indicate they could rupture together, leading to a large-scale catastrophe.

Magnitude 4 earthquakes are relatively common and unlikely to cause much stress along the fault, Hecker said.

But any earthquake brings a 5% chance that a larger earthquake will follow in about three days.

“These earthquakes of such a magnitude that they do so little damage are getting people’s attention,” Hecker said. It’s a good reminder, ‘Am I ready for something bigger? “

Jordan Parker, Chronicle staff writer, contributed to this report.

Julie Johnson (he/she) is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: juliejohnson

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