Big San Andreas Earthquake Delayed – What Happens When It Cracks?

A massive earthquake caused by the San Andreas Fault has been long overdue and continues to cause concern among seismologists.

The fault is the boundary portion between two huge subsurface tectonic plates. It stretches for more than 800 miles across California, past San Francisco and almost as far south as San Diego.

These plates are relatively stable, which means they can see significant stresses build up over time. And when they move, large earthquakes can occur.

The error continues to cause concern as it appears that multiple sectors are being greatly stressed. The director of the Southern California Seismic Center, Thomas Jordan, said earlier that the fault appeared to be “closed, loaded, and ready to go,” according to the Los Angeles Times.

An image showing residents overlooking downtown San Francisco as fires rage across the city after the 1906 earthquake. A massive earthquake caused by the San Andreas Fault has been long overdue and continues to cause concern among seismologists. Smith Collection/Jado/Getty

The two fault plates are moving north but the Pacific plate is moving faster, according to an article on The Conversation by Matthew Blackett, senior lecturer in physical geography and natural hazards at Coventry University in England. This causes increased amounts of pressure.

The pressure was released before. Most famously, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay in 1906 and a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in the Loma Prieta region of California’s central coast in 1989.

The current pressures haven’t been released in years which means an earthquake could be around the corner.

How likely is a major earthquake to occur?

“There are many plausible scenarios for large earthquakes up and down the San Andreas fault system, including those that would be very destructive in California,” Rick Aster, professor of geophysics and chair of the department at Colorado State University told Newsweek.

“Large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system are geological inevitable, but the occurrence of individual earthquakes over years to thousands of years is chaotic. It is thus possible to predict earthquakes probabilistically but not, unfortunately, the magnitude, time and location of individual earthquakes at this time.”

According to the US Geological Survey, it is very likely that some areas across the fault will experience a 6.7-magnitude earthquake in the next 30 years.

In areas close to state borders, it’s nearly 100 percent likely to occur. In the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas, the USGS estimates there is a 10 percent chance of a 6.7-magnitude earthquake in the next 30 years.

“Some of these odds along certain faults are very high, but it cannot be said with great confidence if any particular fault will slip tomorrow, or in 30 years, or in some other period of time,” Astor said. “This is mainly because the interactions between fault systems are very complex and interconnected, and our knowledge of the main physical conditions within Earth that control their behavior is very limited.”

What will happen when an earthquake occurs?

Perceptions of what a massive earthquake triggered by the San Andreas Fault might look like have been conveyed in popular culture, as in the 2015 movie San Andreas. In the movie, the fault caused a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and destroyed much of San Francisco and Los Angeles. The earthquake then caused a tsunami.

Blackett of Coventry University wrote that predictions from the USGS still indicated that the fault would not cause an earthquake greater than 8.0.

The US Geological Survey predicted in 2008 the type of damage that could result from a hypothetical 7.8 earthquake caused by the fault. He believed that this would be more dangerous in areas on both sides of the fault and that $33 billion would damage buildings.

Main gas pipelines will also be damaged, causing subsequent fires in the affected areas.

However, California is strict about earthquake preparedness. Technologies and scientific research are also accelerating in error. This means that warning systems can be in place when a failure inevitably causes a major earthquake.

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