What is Boise's risk from a tornado? Earthquake? Higher than you think, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Have you ever felt in danger of falling victim to a natural hazard while in Ada County?

Probably not.

Particularly heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding, or snowfall may create dangerous swirling conditions. However, in general, we don't have to look out for major hurricanes or prepare for strong earthquakes like elsewhere in the United States.

But as it turns out, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Ada County is the only county in Idaho with a “relatively moderate” risk rating on the National Risk Index.

The National Hazard Index is a dataset that collects data on 18 natural hazards and calculates the risks of each hazard that occurs in a county.

Many coastal counties, such as those along the Gulf Coast, have a “relatively high” or “very high” risk rating, primarily due to the risk of hurricanes and coastal flooding. The same can be said for the California coast, with the added threat of an earthquake.

But why does Ada County have a “relatively moderate” risk rating, the third highest risk category?

BREAK RISK ASSESSMENT BOISE

The Risk Index uses a mathematical process to score each potential risk on a scale from 0 to 100.

The calculation takes into account the expected annual loss in dollars from each natural hazard and multiplies it by the county's social vulnerability score, which is determined by the potential negative impacts on the community due to external stressors, such as natural hazards.

This total is then divided by the county's Community Resilience Score, which calculates a community's ability to recover and adapt from a natural disaster. The resulting number is the county's risk index rating.

Here's how Ada County ranks each risk:

Avalanche: Not applicable

Coastal flooding: Not applicable

Cold wave: relatively high

With a projected annual loss of $1.2 million due to periods of extreme cold weather, Ada County was rated “relatively high” with a score of 94.9. Boise only had one cold snap last winter when temperatures reached lows of 3 degrees on Jan. 15 and 16 and did not jump above freezing between Jan. 13 and 17.

Dryness: very low

Although Ada County experiences 16.4 droughts annually, according to FEMA, the expected annual loss is only $9,100, resulting in a score of 40.6. Much of southern Idaho, including most of Ada County, is heading into spring with little to no drought conditions.

Krascheninnikovia lanata, also called Winterfat, is a drought-tolerant white sage shrub.

Earthquake: relatively moderate

You may not think of Ada County as a major earthquake area, but large earthquakes occasionally occur in Idaho. A 4.9-magnitude earthquake was felt in Boise in February even though the epicenter was 75 miles north of Boise, and in 2020, a 6.5-magnitude quake rocked the Challis in central Idaho.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) gives Ada County an earthquake score of 93.5, with only a 0.118% chance of an earthquake occurring in any given year.

Hail: relatively low

It's not unusual for Ada County to experience significant amounts of hail, with FEMA estimating it happens about once every five years. The last large hailstones in the area were in June 2022, when coin-sized hailstones, about 1.25 inches in diameter, were recorded in Milpa. FEMA projects an expected annual loss of $218,000 due to hail damage, giving Ada County a risk assessment score of 68.7.

Heat wave: relatively high

It's no secret that summers are getting hot in Boise. The City of Trees recorded one of its hottest summers on record in 2022, with temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees on 27 occasions, breaking the previous record of 20 degrees set in 2003. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) expects annual losses of $4.2 million in Ada County due to heat waves, with the county nearly surviving at a rate of two annually.

Hurricane: Not applicable

Ice Storm: Relatively high

Ice storms in Boise occur about once every 10 years, according to FEMA, but an expected annual loss of $600,000 due to ice-related weather resulted in Ada County receiving an index score of 90.7.

Landslide: relatively moderate

Ada County and landslides don't usually go together, with many of the state's most dangerous landslides occurring in the Idaho mountains north of Boise. However, the Boise foothills provide a slight landslide threat under adverse conditions, resulting in an index score of 94.5.

Lightning: relatively high

Once again, the slopes are to blame for having a “relatively high” index score. Lightning is often the cause of wildfires throughout Idaho; In 2021, Idaho Department of Lands spent $68 million fighting fires across the state, many of which were caused by lightning.

A thunderstorm with intense lightning moved through Boise, seen here from northbound Federal Highway, Thursday night, September 15, 2022.

River floods: relatively low

The Boise River runs directly through downtown Boise, while the Snake River makes up the southern portion of Ada County. The Boise River sometimes overflows its banks during heavy rainfall, as happened in April 2023 when portions of the Boise River Greenbelt were closed due to flooding.

Although the flooding was not significant, FEMA expects Ada County's annual loss from river flooding to be $887,000 and gives it a hazard index score of 68.1.

Strong winds: relatively moderate

When storms move into the Treasure Valley, they usually come from the west with winds blowing east. Thanks to the Boise Mountains to the north and the Owyhee Mountains to the south, these winds are channeled through the Treasure Valley, where they drop in elevation from about 4,000 feet to 2,730 feet.

The flowing winds often cause gusts of up to 55 mph. The Federal Emergency Management Agency expects annual losses in Ada County due to strong winds to reach $1.2 million.

Hurricane: relatively low

Tornadoes rarely occur in the Treasure Valley, but the probability of them occurring is not zero. Ada County has seen 12 tornadoes since 1950, the last of which was four tornadoes that occurred in one day on August 3, 2000. The low, but not impossible, chance of tornadoes in Ada County resulted in an index score of 38.

Tsunami: Not applicable

Volcanic activity: Not applicable

Forest fires: relatively high

Although some of Idaho's worst wildfires occur in less populated areas of the state, it's still rare for a summer to go by without Ada County suffering from wildfires in the foothills and plains south of Boise.

Last summer, nearly 4,500 acres of public land in the Boise foothills burned after extreme heat and nearby artillery fire from the former Boise Army Barracks artillery range likely caused a wildfire. FEMA expects an annual loss of $25 million from wildfires in Ada County and gave the county a risk score of 99.5.

A vegetation fire retardant burns east of Blacks Creek Road south of Interstate 84, Wednesday, June 21, 2023.

Winter weather: relatively high

Boise residents are accustomed to winter weather, with the city receiving about 20 inches of snow annually. Last winter, Boise saw 27.4 inches of snowfall, including 18.9 inches between January 6 and 13.

FEMA expects Ada County to spend about $413,000 on winter weather events annually, giving the county a risk score of 91.2.

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