Latest Climate Change Risks • Earth.com

We tend to think of earthquakes as purely geological events – the result of shifting tectonic plates and turbulent pressure beneath our feet. But what if our weather and climate change could play a role too? A new study by MIT scientists suggests that heavy rains and snowstorms caused by climate change have the potential to trigger swarms of earthquakes.

Noto Peninsula and earthquake swarm

The focus of the MIT study was on an area in Japan called the Noto Peninsula. This finger-shaped land mass has witnessed continuous seismic activity for more than a decade. The specific type of earthquake activity observed is known as an earthquake swarm, which is characterized by a series of small earthquakes that occur continuously without an obvious main event.

Researchers at MIT aim to unravel the mysteries behind these persistent seismic disturbances on the Noto Peninsula. Their earthquake research went beyond the usual focus on subterranean activity and entered the world of climate change data.

“We see that snowfall and other environmental loading at the surface affects the stress state underground, and the timing of heavy rainfall events is closely linked to the onset of this earthquake swarm,” noted William Frank, an assistant professor at MIT.

More about the earthquake swarm

When we think of earthquakes, we usually envision one large shock followed by a series of smaller tremors. This sequence begins with the “mainshock,” the main and largest event of the earthquake, followed by smaller tremors known as “aftershocks.” These aftershocks can last for weeks, months, or even years as the Earth's crust adjusts after the initial rupture.

But an earthquake swarm works differently. Unlike a typical earthquake sequence that has a distinct mainshock, an earthquake swarm lacks a single, identifiable main event. Instead, it is characterized by a series of smaller, continuous earthquakes of roughly similar magnitude. A swarm may persist for days, weeks, or even months without a clear focal point.

The main difference between a typical earthquake sequence and an earthquake swarm is that there is no distinct main shock. In a traditional earthquake sequence, aftershocks generally decrease in strength over time.

In an earthquake swarm, tremors are of the same size and occur without a consistent pattern. While a typical earthquake sequence often follows a predictable decay pattern, a swarm can persist for an unpredictable period, sometimes extending over years.

This phenomenon is exactly what is shaking Japan's Noto Peninsula, a rugged region extending into the Sea of ​​Japan. Since late 2020, hundreds of small earthquakes have rocked the region in an unusual swarm.

Instead of starting with a main tremor, the Noto Peninsula swarm began with a gradual increase in seismic activity. The earthquakes intensified and clustered, producing continuous tremors in contrast to the main aftershock pattern.

History of Japan

As mentioned earlier, Japan's Noto Peninsula is an area accustomed to occasional tremors. This area has a history of seismic activity extending back more than a decade. However, in recent years, these disorders have reached new heights. Since 2020, the peninsula has been a hotbed of small but persistent earthquake swarms.

The constant shaking has raised concerns and prompted a search for answers. The team of researchers from MIT decided to embark on an in-depth investigation, looking for patterns within the seismic history of the region. They carefully analyzed earthquake catalogs and records of past tremors, and delved into detailed meteorological data in search of a possible explanation for these severe earthquakes.

Climate change and earthquake swarms

By analyzing the frequency of earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula, the researchers identified a clear seismic change. Before 2020, the occurrence of earthquakes appeared sporadic, with no clear pattern emerging. However, a dramatic shift occurred in 2020. The earthquakes began to cluster together tightly in time, signaling the start of the ongoing swarm.

But the real surprise came when the researchers studied seismic velocity, which is the speed at which waves resulting from earthquakes travel through the Earth's layers. This measurement revealed a noticeable relationship. Changes in earthquake speed appear to follow a seasonal rhythm, which interestingly aligns with the timing of the earthquake swarm.

This discovery raised a puzzling question: What environmental factor, caused by climate change, could affect the timing and intensity of earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula?

Snow, climate change and earthquakes

Heavy snowfall events also turn out to be an important piece of the puzzle. When snow accumulates, it adds enormous weight to the ground. This weight, combined with rainfall, increases what scientists call “pore fluid pressure.” This is the pressure exerted by fluids within small cracks and gaps in the rock below us.

Think of it like a sponge. Submerged rocks, heavy by snow and rain, are more susceptible to forces deep underground, sometimes causing them to fail and slide — leading to earthquakes. It is important to note that this does not replace plate tectonics as the primary cause of earthquakes, but it can act as a final push.

Effects of climate change on earthquakes

The big question now is whether this link between climate events and earthquakes is limited to the Noto Peninsula in Japan, or if it has broader global implications. Researchers at MIT believe this association could extend beyond this single region. The findings suggest that other locations around the world may also be vulnerable to climate-influenced earthquakes.

As the undeniable reality of climate change unfolds, it brings with it an increase in extreme weather events. This includes periods of heavy rain and snowfall. The MIT study suggests that these intensified weather patterns could exacerbate the effects observed in Japan, leading to more frequent or even stronger earthquakes in vulnerable areas.

The research highlights the complex interaction between Earth's different systems – the delicate balance between the atmosphere, the solid ground beneath our feet, and the potential for seismic activity. Further investigations are needed to establish the relationship between climate change and earthquakes to identify specific areas that may be most at risk.

“If we are heading towards a changing climate, with more extreme rainfall events occurring… that will change how the Earth's crust is loaded,” Professor Frank said.

The study was published in the journal Science Advances.

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