Can Oregon handle huge earthquakes?

Monique Merrill

PORTLAND, OR (CN) – It's not a question of if it will happen, but when: A powerful earthquake will occur one day along the subduction zone that lies beneath the Pacific Northwest.

In the past 10,000 years, the Cascadia Subduction Zone has experienced 43 earthquakes. The most recent was in 1700, when the subduction zone unleashed a 9.0-magnitude earthquake, collapsing the coastline several feet and triggering a tsunami.

Current projections indicate a 37% chance of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7.1 occurring in the subduction zone within the next 50 years. All of this raises another question: How prepared is the region for this terrifying day?

In late October, the Oregon Department of Emergency Management ran a week-long scenario to test its preparedness not only for the devastation but also for the disaster logistics afterward. Preparing for earthquakes is a daunting task, not least because of their unpredictable nature. When a major earthquake finally hits Cascadia, officials don't expect more than a few seconds.

As it happened, the drill coincided with a 6.0 magnitude earthquake, centered about 170 miles off the central Oregon coast. Although this earthquake was huge, it was nothing compared to the size and scale the country was preparing for.

So, what's the worst that could happen? “You can't get more than 9.4,” Althea Rizzo, geohazards program coordinator for Oregon Emergency Management, said of the statewide exercise. In the test scenario, Oregon was expected to face up to 25,000 deaths statewide, but it wouldn't take a record-breaking earthquake to cause significant damage. The intensity of earthquakes is measured on a logarithmic scale, “so even small earthquakes are really big.”

In the grim scenario of 25,000 deaths, only a small fraction of those hypothetical casualties are from the earthquake itself. The rest came from the tsunami that would inevitably come, inundating low-lying areas on the Oregon coast.

“The tsunami is really going to be the killer when it comes to Cascadia,” Rizzo said, using the name given to the fault line in the Pacific Northwest. Coastal Oregonians would need to flee to higher ground. They will also have to hold on until rescue workers can reach them, as islanding – that is, the formation of temporary islands on what was previously entire land – will likely occur.

Even inland and on higher ground, Oregonians will need to be prepared. Besides tsunamis, another major concern is liquefaction, where shaking begins to boil sand and push water to the surface. This is one of the main causes of damage from earthquakes, Rizzo said, and is one of the reasons that can reduce ancient buildings to rubble.

Unlike weather-related natural disasters such as hurricanes, which can be tracked and subject to an early warning system, earthquakes cannot be predicted. This makes preparing for them difficult, both for emergency officials and ordinary residents.

In the event of an earthquake — a big one — Oregonians would be lucky to get a few seconds of warning. What can Oregonians do with these seconds to stay safe?

For Chris Goldfinger, an earthquake geologist, paleontologist and professor emeritus at Oregon State University, the answer to this question is simple.

In most cases, those seconds should be used to run outside, he said.

This is a departure from traditional earthquake advice, which encourages people to get down, take cover and hold on. But for an earthquake as strong as Oregon faces, in which even seemingly solid buildings could collapse, that may not be enough to stay safe.

“It sounds like a conspiracy theory, but do your research,” Goldfinger quipped.

In the professor's case, his concerns about the classic “cover and cover” advice were raised during an earthquake drill in his campus office. As he walked around the building, he began to take a closer look at the surroundings.

“I said, 'Well, it's a collapse risk,'” Goldfinger said. “It was a four-story structure.”

Parking outside the building is starting to look more attractive. Instead of taking shelter inside, he thought I could escape here.

“If I ran out here, I wouldn't look at another building coming my way,” Goldfinger said. “I will see cars moving in the earthquake.”

For Goldfinger, it all comes down to situational awareness, like putting on a coat before heading out in the rain or leaving early when there's traffic. Except in this case, it's about assessing how much of the building structure might fall on you if the earthquake started shaking the foundation violently.

“We're not used to thinking about a building as a danger in the same way that we think about crazy drivers on I-5 or, you know, all the other things that can go wrong on a normal day,” Goldfinger said.

Not so for Goldfinger, who has spent his career not only studying earthquakes, but also surviving them. This includes the massive 9.2-magnitude earthquake that struck Japan in 2011, which occurred while he was visiting for an earthquake conference.

For him, the threats of seismic activity are always in the back of his mind. Even in seemingly mundane moments, like enjoying an ice cream cone on an Oregon coastal beach, disturbing thoughts rise to the surface.

“I was just looking around, just thinking how long is it going to take me up that hill from where I am with my ice cream cone?” He remembers. It does not encourage living in fear but rather being prepared. “You don't want to take it to the level of mainstream paranoia, you know, but just take a quick look at where you are.”

Goldfinger published his thoughts on “drop, cover and wait” in an opinion piece, finding that it is easier to challenge directing when approached from a personal perspective. But Goldfinger's ideas on advice are not the norm.

“As an emergency manager, the best response for the greatest number of people is to let go and hang on because, for the most part, we build very well here in the United States,” Rizzo said. “If you're in a newer building, drop, cover and hold is definitely what you want to do.”

Furthermore, escaping from older buildings can pose its own risks, such as collapsing brick facades in the exit path. In the 2011 earthquake that destroyed large parts of central Christchurch, New Zealand, the falling structure itself posed a risk.

Earthquakes were not top of mind when much of the infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest was first built. However, the buildings here have been retrofitted to withstand vibration, and new buildings have high standards that must be met to ensure they will be safe.

One notable exception: Oregon Emergency Management Headquarters. “This building is going to fall,” Rizzo said with a slight chuckle. “That's why I'll get the hell out of here if he starts shaking.”

“What an irony of life,” Erin Zisset, public information officer for Oregon Emergency Management, added upon hearing Rizzo's statement. That's one reason the state is delocalizing data centers: If and when that office goes down, response teams can still work remotely, she said.

For emergency preparedness professionals, earthquakes present a unique challenge. How can the seriousness of the risk be conveyed without confusing the audience?

For Rizzo, the answer lies in humor.

When I talk to an audience, “I kind of start with jokes and try to keep it lighthearted,” she said. This is despite the fact that even in lower estimates, “I'm talking about 20 thousand dead.” Like Goldfinger, she wants people not to be afraid but to be prepared. “When people are afraid, they shut up.”

On this front, experts say practical planning is key to dealing with the earthquake. Ideally, this individual preparedness will go hand in hand with statewide efforts.

“As we know, when disasters happen, it takes time to get resources and support to those affected,” said Kayla Thompson, community preparedness coordinator for Oregon Emergency Management. “So, the more prepared everyone is individually, the better.”

Thompson runs the state's preparedness program, “Be Ready for Two Weeks.” It provides detailed information on how to prepare for a disaster and the following days.

Her directions go like this: Get a suitcase. Fill it with batteries, water and food. Know the locations of evacuation zones and form an exit plan. Build a first aid kit and keep it handy.

When the ground starts shaking and the unthinkable becomes reality, experts say it's a person's preparation beforehand that determines what happens next. Meanwhile, they say preparedness can also be a way to allay fears. As Rizzo says, “Once you start preparing, you find yourself relaxing a lot because you're doing something, you're taking action.”

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