Dividing Earthquake Risk Zones: An International Effort in Iran for West and South Asia

As an international effort, this article aims to represent the important control factors for Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) conducted over the past three decades in Iran, West and South Asia.

After every major earthquake, the seismic source and ground motion models will be modified, and there is always discussion of the reliability of seismic hazard division maps and a comparison of previously assessed and recorded ground motions.

This draws attention to the importance of the input data set and the level of knowledge of the seismic source parameters in potential seismic areas (engineering, mechanical, faults, return periods, etc.)

South Asia is subject to high seismic activities and is greatly affected by continental convergence and active crust shortening between the African, Arab and Indian plates to the northeast (northeast) and north in relation to the Eurasian plate. According to the regional tectonic system of the Iranian plateau, the solutions to the axial mechanism for most earthquakes are compressibility, hitting slip, or a combination of these two mechanisms (Figure 1). The GPS-derived velocity field of the Arab, African (Nubian and Somali) and Eurasian plate interaction area indicates a counterclockwise rotation of a large area of ​​the Earth’s surface including the Arabian plate and adjacent parts of Zagros, central Iran, Turkey and Eurasia (Fig.2) .

Central Turkey (Anatolia) moves in a coherent manner with an internal deformation of less than 2 mm / yr. The Anatolian Movement is bounded on the north by the North Anatolian Right Lateral Fault and on the southeast by the Left East Anatolian Lateral Fault. For Eurasia, Southwest Aegean – Peloponnesus moves towards SSW (South-Southwest). Similar measurements in the Iranian continent and northern Oman indicate that most of the margarine was absorbed by the Makran subduction zone and less than the kopetdag. The Iranian Central Block is constantly moving with an internal deformation smaller than 2 mm / yr.

In the western part of Iran, the deformation is distributed between several drive belts. The maximum velocity (38 mm / year) in the northern Ganges is close to the average convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates. All these GPS analyzes indicate high rates of deformation in West Asia and the Iranian plateau, with the region being subjected to systemic pressures from collision of lateral tectonic plates.

Figure 1. The focal mechanism of the major earthquakes recorded in Iran during the last century. Dashed lines: the boundaries of the three major tectonic regions of Iran. Caller Line: major malfunctions

Therefore, geodetic, seismic and tectonic studies of the region confirm the existence of a complex active tectonic framework with high deformation rates, part of which is expressed in terms of earthquakes. This region experiences different degrees of earthquakes every year, some of which may reach the Mw8 (for example, the 27 November 1945 Mw8.1 Makran earthquake). Several damaging earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 have occurred during the past century such as the earthquakes of 1909 and Bruegird (MW.7.3), 1930 Salmas (Mw.7.1), 1962 Bou’in-Zahra (Mw.7.1) and 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz. (Mw 7.4), 1978 Tapas (Mw.7.4), 1990 Manjil (Mw 7.4), 1997 Ghaen (Mw.7.3), 2003 Bam (Mw.6.6), 2013 Savaran (Mw 7.8) in Iran; 1939 Erzincan (Mw.7.8), 1970 Gediz (Mw 7.2), 1976 Calderan – Muradiyya (Mw.7.0), 1999 Izmit (Mw.7.6), 1999 Duzce (Mw 7.2), 2011 Van (Mw 7.1) earthquakes in Turkey; Nuweiba earthquake south of the Dead Sea fault and Akwaba Bay in Egypt. 1935 Quetta (Mw.7.7), 1945 Balochistan (Mw.8.1), 2005 Balakot (Mw.7.6), 2011 Dalbandin (Mw.7.7) and 2013 Awaran (Mw.7.7) earthquakes in Pakistan; And the 2002 Hindu-Kush (Mw 7.4) and 2015 Hindu-Kush (Mw.7.5) earthquakes in Afghanistan (Fig.3).

Figure 2. The horizontal velocity field for a large part of the Alpine Range – the Himalayas.

Figure 3. Seismic map for the Middle East before decoupling the cluster represented by seismic centers (4 MW). The yellow stars indicate some of the most devastating (6.5 MW) seismic events over the past century. Data source: EMME earthquake catalog (Zare et al., 2014).

After the earthquakes (i.e., the 1990 Mw7.3 Manjil earthquake and the 2003 Mw6.5 Bam earthquake) some questions were raised about the reliability of seismic risk division maps and about the comparison between previously recorded and evaluated ground motions. This raised the importance of the input data set and the level of knowledge of the seismic source parameters in the area (fault engineering and mechanics, return periods for large and destructive earthquakes, etc.)

Related efforts

The application of the most common seismic hazard analysis methods such as Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) as well as Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is explained in this region.

It should be noted that reliable seismic risk studies rely on the existence of a robust earthquake catalog and a good knowledge of the tectonic framework, active deformation rate and the related attenuation model. Better inputs to risk analysis lead to more reliability and seismic risk assessments, so that accurate input data such as comprehensive catalogs and earthquake parameters as well as characteristics of seismic tectonic areas reduce the uncertainty of the analysis. There have been many efforts to prepare standardized earthquake catalogs in the Middle East and Iran in recent years such as the new seismic catalog for the Middle East region which has been developed and consists of historical, early and recent events recorded between 1250 BC and 2006 (Zare et al., 2014).

This effort was carried out under the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) project and the Middle East earthquake model (EMME) and the ultimate goal was to create a unified earthquake catalog by integrating regional and international data for use in the harmonized estimation of earthquakes hazard in the region. We observed a lack of sufficient robust motility metadata in most parts of the study area. The uncertainties associated with the seismic risk analysis and the level of success of the Poissonian method in the region were also presented.

The trend of seismic risk studies in South Asia began using deterministic approaches, continued with the probabilistic approaches and finally linked them to spectral zoning maps. The trend in risk mapping appears to cover assessment of severity, realistic acceleration and new deterministic approaches; The development of site-specific seismic risk analysis for the region should be based on a detailed database of integrated site characteristics. This article is based on the context and critical review of the seismic risk studies that I have conducted over the past 28 years. Mehdi Zaree is Professor of Seismology Engineering at the International Institute of Seismology and Seismology (IIEES) in Tehran. He is also an associate member of the Iranian Academy of Sciences (IAS) in Tehran, where he is now the head of the geology department at IAS. He can be contacted at: [email protected]

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