Predicting earthquakes is a top priority for the University of Southern California’s Earthquake Research Center

Southern California sits on a fragile bed of ever-changing rocks where the dreaded threat of earthquakes lurks beneath a sunlit surface. The danger is terrifying because no one knows when and where the great earthquake will strike.

This threat disturbs Professor Yehuda Ben-Zion. A geophysicist in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Southern California’s College of Arts, Arts and Sciences in Dornsife, he has studied earthquakes throughout his career. Now, as the new director of the Southern California Seismic Center based at the University of Southern California, he has a bold plan to shift his research on earthquake processes and increase the focus on forecasting large earthquakes.

Yehuda Ben-Zion (Photo Courtesy of Yehuda Ben-Zion)

“I am interested in pushing the boundaries of science. I am working on many initiatives that can enhance earthquake prediction and open new research horizons.

He envisions a large expansion of the sensors over faults known to generate large earthquakes. He wants to transform earthquake research by studying how faults change before, during, and after a rupture. He outlined his vision for a future seismic center in recent articles in seismology and in nature research letters. SCEC is preparing various funding proposals for the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey and other sponsors.

SCEC is a consortium of more than 90 American and international research organizations – including the California Institute of Technology, Stanford University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, and University of California Colleges – that are headquartered at the University of California. Its annual budget is around $ 10 million, and it comes from various sources.

Is earthquake prediction possible? Some scholars remain skeptical

Predicting earthquakes has been a hope since the earth moved under the ancient peoples. Earthquakes have contributed to the collapse of ancient civilizations in China and the Middle East. Large earthquakes devastated California and other major cities around the world, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Cities like Los Angeles, Tokyo, Istanbul, San Francisco and Mexico City remain permanently vulnerable.

However, forecasting earthquakes was also the domain of mystics and quacks. Scientists feel uncomfortable when pressured to predict earthquakes. Experts say, at this point, there is no way to reliably predict large earthquakes. Instead, they rely on scientifically-based long-term probability estimates to predict when and where a fault could trigger a major earthquake. Ben Tzion sees opportunities to advance science and push long-range forecasting closer to near-term forecasting.

It is the most promising game in town for predicting earthquakes.

John Vidal

Professor John Vidal, former director of the SCEC, says Ben Zion is pursuing a daring challenge in Earth sciences in collaboration with researchers in France and elsewhere, although the potential is uncertain.

“There is a convincing understanding that earthquakes are spinning from stress loading to rupture to reloading to the next interval, and if you can recognize progress through the cycle, you get one step closer to predicting earthquakes,” he said.

He added: “But some scientists are skeptical, given the slow progress so far in forecasting earthquakes, and they expect that earthquakes will strike without warning.” “Is it possible to have more information, to see how rocks behave just before the interval? Are the clues strong? Does it happen reliably before earthquakes? It’s the most promising game in town for predicting earthquakes, and it has new theories and measurements, in addition to that.” [Ben-Zion’s] Very well informed. “

SoCal seismic sensors focus on fault areas

Understanding earthquakes is difficult because they originate deep in the ground or under the sea, involve complex geology and provide limited information at the rupture point at the surface. As such, earthquakes are the ultimate terror of nature, due to extreme uncertainty and potential ruin. In the blink of an eye, the bug can turn, unleash the centuries-old stored energy to cause colossal destruction and death. The Ridgecrest earthquake of 7.1 magnitude in 2019 unleashed about 45 nuclear bombs the size of Hiroshima.

Southern California is particularly prone to large earthquakes because it occupies a seismically active region over two tectonic plates the size of the contiguous continent at the San Andreas Fault. Major infrastructure – including oil, gas, water, and pipelines – is crossing the fault. More people and homes are added each year, and many of them are very close to other great regional faults in the Inland Empire that pose separate and additive threats to rupture. In addition, much of the Los Angeles metro area sits above a maze of faults capable of producing large earthquakes, as in 1933 in Long Beach, 1971 in Sylmar, 1987 in Whittier, and 1994 in Northridge.

Scientists assess risk using long-range forecasts to predict the likelihood of a major earthquake. For example, the US Geological Survey estimates whether a magnitude 7 earthquake hits the Los Angeles area and the San Francisco Bay Area in about 30 years. In Southern California, the odds are much higher for smaller, destructive earthquakes and about 1 in 3 for a 6.7-magnitude earthquake, the same size as the 1994 Northridge earthquake, over the same three-decade period.

To improve these predictions, Ben Zion is seeking a new, expanded network to produce information that can be used to monitor fault zones and predict earthquakes, starting with the SCEC’s habitat area in Southern California. While the region already has about 1,000 seismic sensors, Ben Zion says they are scattered over a wide range, and most of them are far from major faults. It’s a blind spot that he says leaves gaps in our understanding of the defect conditions preceding the break.

Bridging the data gap is crucial.

Yehuda Ben-Zion

“No science can be developed without direct monitoring of the phenomena under investigation in the natural environment,” said Ben Tzion. “It is necessary to make measurements within the fault zones, where details of natural processes can be observed. Bridging the data gap is critical.”

What might be included in the new USC seismic center? Among other initiatives, the Saudi Electricity and Water Authority proposes a major expansion of seismic sensors, including accelerometers, broadband stations and GPS stations – hundreds of them – that are positioned within a kilometer of major faults. It will be augmented by cameras, acoustic sensors, and other geophysical tools. The system will be integrated with regional sensors, to stimulate new theoretical studies, laboratory experiments and field observations, with analysis with the help of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies.

Ground zero for the network would be the San Jacinto Fault in the Riverside and San Bernardino counties – one of the largest and most historically active faults in the area – as well as the San Andreas Fault.

Yehuda Ben-Zion’s optimism about predicting earthquakes is fueled by data

What makes Ben-Zion optimistic about his new approach?

The answer was found on November 17 in a paper co-authored in Nature, which analyzes data collected from sensors close to the fault prior to some recent earthquakes, with a magnitude of 7 or nearly greater, from around the world. In certain cases, the data shows tantalizing evidence that appears to indicate a major jolt is preparing to strike.

Among the early warning signals, there was evidence of progressive rock weakening and crust deformation around future rupture regions, slow slip and tremor events, and increased concentration of seismic activity localized in a narrow range over the part of the fault that eventually broke. The newspaper explains that these processes were observed days, weeks and months before a major shock occurred.

In particular, the study analyzes how some of these phenomena appeared prior to the 1992 Landers earthquake, 1999 Hector Mine, and 2019 Ridgecrest in the Mojave Desert, as well as the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in Baja California. Similar evidence was recorded before several major earthquakes in Japan, as well as an 8.2-magnitude earthquake near Iquique, Chile, in 2014.

While not every fault gives a warning of a rupture, Ben Tzion says that “With more accurate measurements and better near-fault data captured just before a major earthquake, we can elicit signals in the fault zone that can dramatically improve the ability to predict earthquakes. “.

If all goes as planned, the new Southern California earthquake center may help protect against disasters. The so-called “Great Earthquake”, the prediction of a gigantic earthquake of the San Andreas fault south extending from roughly the Salton Sea to Bakersfield, will unleash disaster. The ShakeOut Earthquake scenario developed a decade ago by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) warns of a magnitude 7.9 earthquake that would kill 1,800 people and cause 50,000 casualties and $ 200 billion in property damage. The southern portion of the rift, near the Salton Sea and Coachella Valley, has not erupted for over 300 years, an unusually long lull period.

More stories about: Earth Sciences, Earthquakes, Southern California Epicenter

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