Volcano watching: Small changes at the summit of Mauna Loa bear great clues

Although Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on Earth, it has lived in the shadow of Kilauea since its last eruption in 1984. The geological record shows that Mauna Loa erupts every seven years on average; However, 37 years have passed since the pyroclastic flows came from the northeast rift volcanic region 7 kilometers (4 miles) from Hilo.

However, Mauna Loa is sure to erupt again one day, and the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s intense monitoring efforts have continued over the decades.

The recent deformation and earthquake changes at Mauna Loa are the latest in a series of “grumbling” that arguably began in 2004. At that time, GPS instruments showed an amplification of the volcano’s crest reservoir system accompanied by very deep earthquakes. This behavior continued for several months before Mauna Loa returned to its posterior state.

Summit swelling began again in 2014, this time with shallow earthquakes, and has continued since, with only a short break in 2018.

In the past six months, there has been a rise in earthquake activity on the western side of Mauna Loa and changes in the deformation pattern at its summit.

These changes are small, sometimes barely louder than noise, but they may tell us that the magma system is evolving in important ways.

Technology has changed a lot in the 37 years since the last eruption of Mauna Loa volcano.

Today, HVO monitors Mauna Loa deformation using more than 30 GPS stations, seven tilt meters, and regularly analyzes satellite radar data.

The higher sampling rate and greater instrument sensitivity give us a way to see more detail. As we continue to monitor the Mauna Loa unrest, we also hope to learn more about how the volcano behaves and look for evidence of the next eruption.

Three observations from the past several months are particularly interesting (to a geophysicist).

The first is that the distortion trend at the Mauna Loa summit has reversed twice since October 2020, shifting back and forth from the outward (expansionary) to the inward (systolic) direction. The most recent contractile episode shortened the distance across the summit of Mauna Loa Caldera (Moku’aweoweo) by only about 1.5 cm (0.6 in). This is small compared to the scale of the expansion that occurred, but the sudden reversal is a novel behavior not observed in Mauna Loa using modern tools.

The second observation was a small, shallow 3.2-magnitude earthquake in Moku’aweoweo on March 6.

Using satellite radar, we were able to see that the earthquake caused a landing of approximately 10 cm (4 inches) in a small portion of the caldera.

This is very unusual for a 3.2-magnitude earthquake and indicates that the fault may have slipped all the way to the Earth’s surface.

The third note is the smallest but it may be the most important. Starting on March 23, the tilt scale near the Mauna Loa summit recorded a tilt change of about 5 micruradians.

It is not unusual to see such a large tilt at Kilauea, but there has never before been a tilt signal that could be attributed to changes in the Mauna Loa volcanic system.

Changes in inclination have been observed in Mauna Loa due to changes in daily or seasonal temperatures and due to precipitation, but has not previously occurred due to volcanic deformation.

These new observations are interesting because they suggest that some of the deformation is driven by shallow processes than we’ve seen in the past several years.

Since this is the first time we have observed this level of detail, it is difficult to know what the data might indicate about the future of the volcano.

Mauna Loa may become calm again and return to the background, as it did in 2005, or it may not be.

Mauna Loa is currently in an “advisory”, which is only second out of four levels in the USGS Volcano Alert Level System.

We expect there will be additional indicators, such as an increase in gas emissions and a continuing increase in earthquakes, before any future eruption. These recent observations remind us that Mauna Loa is a volcano and are part of the reason why HVO encouraged everyone to think about how the Mauna Loa eruption would affect them and plan accordingly.

Volcano activity updates

Kilauea volcano erupting. USGS Volcano Alert Level at WATCH (https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels). Kilauea updates are released daily.

Lava activity is limited to Halema’uma’u with lava erupting from a vent hatch on the northwest side of the crater. Laser rangefinder measurements this morning, May 6, indicate that the lava in the western (active) part of the lake is 228 meters (748 feet) deep, with the eastern portion of the lava lake anchored to the surface.

The top tilt gauges have recorded little change in the past 24 hours. The sulfur dioxide emission rates measured on May 5 were 300 tons / day. Earthquakes remain stable, with higher tremor. For the most recent information on the eruption, see https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/Kilauea/current-eruption.

Mauna Loa does not erupt and is still at Volcano Alert Level. This alert level does not imply that a volcano eruption is imminent or that progression to an eruption from the current level of turbulence is a certainty. Mauna Loa updates are released weekly.

Last week, around 118 small-scale earthquakes were recorded below Mauna Loa; Most of these occurred below the summit and higher elevations at depths of less than 8 km (about 5 miles).

GPS measurements show low rates of distortion in the summit region over the past week. Gas concentrations and fumarol temperatures both at the summit and in the sulfur cone in the southwest rift region remain stable. Web cameras do not show any changes to the landscape.

For more information on the current monitoring of Mauna Loa volcano, see: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa/monitoring.

There were 3 events with 3 or more hair reports in the Hawaiian Islands during the past week: 7 km (4 mi) M2.6 earthquake 34 km (21 mi) east of Pahala on May 3 at 9:07 pm HST, M3 earthquake 0 5 km (3 mi) WSW from Pahala at 0 km (0 mi) depth April 30 at 5:33 am HST, and the M2.2 earthquake 3 km (1 mi) WSW from Kahaluu-Keauhou at depth 5 km (3 mi) on April 29 at 2:58 pm GMT.

HVO continues to closely monitor both the ongoing Kilauea eruption and Mauna Loa for any signs of increased activity.

Please visit the HVO website for previous Volcano Watch articles, Kilauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano photos, maps, recent earthquake information, and more.

Questions emailed to [email protected].

Volcano Watch is a weekly article and activity update written by the scientists and affiliates of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory of the US Geological Survey.

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