There is no peace in Myanmar 1 year after taking over the army

BANGKOK – The military takeover in Myanmar a year ago that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi not only abruptly halted the country’s newborn return to democracy. It also brought a surprising level of popular resistance, which has flourished in a low-level but persistent uprising.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, commander of Myanmar’s army known as Tatmadaw took power on the morning of February 1, 2021, arresting Suu Kyi and key members of her government and the ruling National League for Democracy party, which won the by-elections victory in November 2020.

The use of deadly force by the military to retain power has escalated the conflict with its civilian opponents to the point that some experts describe the country as in a state of civil war.

Costs have been high, with about 1,500 people killed by security forces, nearly 8,800 arrested, an unknown number tortured and missing and more than 300,000 displaced as the army destroys villages to eradicate resistance.

Other consequences are also important. Civil disobedience disrupted transportation, banking services, and government agencies, slowing down an economy that is already recovering from the coronavirus pandemic. The public health system collapsed, leaving the fight against COVID-19 abandoned for months. Higher education stalled after the revolt-friendly teachers and students boycotted school or were arrested.

The government-installed government was not anticipating the level of resistance that arose, Thomas Kean, a Myanmar affairs analyst advising the International Crisis Group’s expert group, told the Associated Press.

We saw in the first days after the coup, they tried to adopt a kind of approach as usual, with the generals denying that they were implementing any significant change, but only removing Suu Kyi from power, he said.

And of course, you know, that sparked these huge protests that were brutally suppressed, which resulted in people turning into armed war.

The military has faced revolt using the same brutal tactics in the country’s rural center, which it has long unleashed against ethnic minorities in border areas, which critics have accused of as crimes against humanity and genocide.

Its violence has generated new sensitivities for ethnic minorities such as Karen, Kachin and Rohingya, long-term targets of military abuses with which members of the Burmese majority are now pursuing a common anti-military cause.

People opposed taking up the military because they had come to enjoy representative governance and liberalization after years of military rule, said David Steinberg, a senior researcher in Asian Studies at Georgetown University.

Young people came out in droves to protest despite the dangers, he said, because they had neither family nor career to lose, but saw their future in danger.

They also enjoyed tactical advantages that previous generations of protesters lacked, he noted. Myanmar was caught up with the rest of the tech world and people were able to stage strikes and demonstrations using cell phones and the internet, despite efforts to restrict communications.

A driving force was the Civil Disobedience Movement, founded by health care workers, which encouraged actions such as boycotting military products and people not paying electricity bills or buying lottery tickets.

Detained by the military, Suu Kyi has played no active role in these developments.

The ruling generals, who have said they will probably hold new elections by 2023, have linked it to a series of criminal charges widely seen as fabricated to prevent him from returning to political life. 76-year-old Suu Kyi has already been sentenced to six years in prison, with the possibility of adding many more.

But in the days after the military took power, its elected member parties in parliament laid the groundwork for sustained resistance. Prevented by the army from taking their seats, they rallied themselves and in April formed the Government of National Unity, or NUG, which claims to be the legitimate administrative body of the country and has won the loyalty of many citizens.

NUG has also sought to coordinate armed resistance, assisting in the organization of the People’s Defense Forces, or PDFs, of local militias formed locally and in the neighborhood. The military considers NUG and PDF as terrorist organizations.

With urban demonstrations reduced mainly to crowds to avoid strikes, the battle against military rule has shifted mainly to the countryside, where poorly occupied local militias wage guerrilla warfare.

The Four Cuts armies strategy aims to eliminate the threat of militias by cutting off their access to food, funding, information and recruitment. Civilians suffer collateral damage as soldiers block essential supplies, take in suspected militia supporters and flatten entire villages.

“When the army enters a village, they will burn down some houses, possibly shoot some people, take them prisoner and torture them to the kind of horrific abuse that is happening regularly,” said analyst Kean.

But when the soldiers leave, they lose control of that area. They do not have enough manpower to maintain control when 80% to 90% of the population is against them.

Several ethnic minority groups with decades of experience in fighting the Myanmar military offer critical support to the PDF militia movement, including training supplies and some weapons, while also providing safe havens for opposition activists and others fleeing the military.

We never accept a coup for any reason. The position of our organization is clear, said for AP Padoh Saw Taw Nee, head of the foreign affairs department of the National Unions Karen. We oppose any military dictatorship. Therefore, the automatic answer is that we should work with those who oppose the military.

He said his group began preparations shortly after taking power to host people fleeing military persecution, and noted that he played a similar role in 1988 after a failed popular uprising.

NUG says it will respect the demands of ethnic minority groups for greater autonomy when it takes power.

The military, meanwhile, maintains pressure on Karen with periodic airstrikes, sending villagers to flee safely across a river that forms the border with Thailand.

Supporting ethnic groups is seen as the key to supporting the resistance, with the view that as long as they can engage the military, its forces will be too large to complete the PDFs.

No other factor is seen as capable of tilting the balance in favor of the army or the resistance.

Sanctions on ruling generals may make them uncomfortable U.S. actions, in particular, have caused financial distress, but Russia and China have been credible allies, particularly willing to sell arms. The UN and organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are seen at best as toothless.

I see the scene as a scene for a protracted conflict. Neither side seems willing to back down or see it as in their best interest or as a necessity to back down or make concessions in any way to the other, analyst Kean said.

“And so it is very difficult to see how the conflict will diminish, it will diminish in the near future, even in a period of several years. It is very difficult to see the return of peace in many areas of Myanmar.

–

Associated Press video editor Jerry Harmer contributed to this report.