International
East Asian countries can give India some growing lessons
After covid, Bangladesh is set to have a higher GDP per capita than India with current exchange rates, says the International Monetary Fund. While some have questioned the appropriateness of the comparison, others highlighted India’s failures vis-.-Vis Bangladesh. Mente explores.
How do current rates, constant prices change?
The international comparison of GDP per capita in foreign currency is influenced by many factors such as the level of domestic prices, exchange rates and purchasing power. Some countries, for example, keep their exchange rates lower to boost exports, although the domestic value of the currency may be stronger. What this basically means is that currency can have a higher purchasing capacity in the domestic market. Any comparison of per capita income levels should be made using GDP per capita in purchasing power parity exchange rates, compared to current rates.
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How does it fit into the India-Bangladesh context?
When we look at the comparison of gross domestic product per capita in dollar terms at purchasing power parity exchange rates, India is likely to maintain its superiority in terms of higher per capita income in the foreseeable future even by IMF estimates. In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), India’s GDP per capita in 2020 is estimated at $ 6,284 by the IMF, compared to $ 5,139 for Bangladesh. It should be noted that India’s GDP is much larger compared to Bangladesh, but so is the country’s population and, thus, increasing factor productivity will be critical to maintaining the lead.
What about Bangladesh’s recent economic progress?
Bangladesh’s outstanding economic performance in the last two decades is undoubtedly as it has emerged as a major player in several areas including high exports in sectors such as textiles. It is now trying to diversify into productive export areas. It has made steady progress in social indicators such as female labor force participation, where India has seen a decline.
How has GDP growth in India come out so far?
India’s economic performance has been decent over the past three decades, excluding 2011-14 and after 2018. The current weakness has more to do with the pandemic than the slowdown in growth. However, since the 1950s, many countries have surpassed India in terms of GDP per capita, on the eve of strong reforms. For example, East Asian economies now have higher growth rates in per capita income, although India continues to grow by 3-4%. Currently, some of these countries have up to 2-3 times India per capita GDP, if not more.
Will others continue to overtake India?
Some countries grew forward due to India’s lack of focus on economic reforms that increase productivity. The dismantling of Nehruvian Socialism began in 1991, but the lack of reforms in the land, labor, and agriculture sectors acted as a constraint. The government has now taken steps to address such issues, but must continue with the reform process to ensure that India experiences the same kind of economic growth as some of our competitors. That’s the only way to maintain our supremacy.
Karan Bhasin is a policy scholar.
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