Health
Delta COVID variant and vaccine repellent
Dr. Irving Kent Law
Honestly. Really.I’m working hard Absent Writing something about COVID like me, and arguably most readers are trying to tentatively return to their previous lives before this pandemic disrupts all our lives, so the rearview mirror I’m incredibly happy to see the COVID getting smaller and smaller in a way, we’re just starting to understand.
Still, some observations have been revealed to those who are paying attention to not letting us begin to retreat.
The first is a report from large medical centers across the country that the majority of COVID patients with sufficient illness to be hospitalized are unvaccinated. Currently 95-99% of COVID-related inpatients are not fully vaccinated individuals.
The second observation of great concern is that the delta variant first identified in India during this pandemic catastrophic experience is now becoming an increasingly dominant form in the countries in which it emerged. The infectivity seems to be about 60% higher, but not so deadly. And the COVID vaccine currently approved in the United States provides excellent protection against it. So far.
So what are the points that can be gained from these observations? Let’s start with the basic principles of biology. The first principle is that reproduction is the basic work of all life. It is the randomly occurring adaptations in a particular environment that drive evolution, and mutations provide survival benefits. This is a basic Darwinian observation. I leave it to those who believe there are other factors here to explain why mutations occur and test them to live on that logic.
Combining these two observations is that continuous infection provides the basis for mutations to occur. In the biological age, the life cycle of an organism determines how often mutations occur randomly. Mutations that occur in very long-lived turtles are only noticeable for thousands of years with little external influence. Therefore, the Galapagos tortoise has not changed significantly for thousands of years.
The virus, on the other hand, replicates very quickly, and each generation of virus has a low but random incidence of genetic code errors or mutations. The majority of these literally die because they have no survival (ie, reproduction) benefits. Those that increase infectivity, and thus infectivity, provide survival benefits, so their mutations, or “changes,” eventually overtake other strains. This is why the original SARS-CoV-2 virus has been superseded by British variants, then South Africa, Brazil, and several other variants that have temporarily flourished, but is now a Delta variant. is.
In the uncontrolled viral breeding environment that was the overwhelming Indian healthcare system, variant strains undoubtedly emerge, and based on their infectivity, delta variants have emerged as the current predominant strain. As long as the virus can run wild in the population, the mutation will occur until the “worse” mutation takes over. This is because it is more infectious and therefore breeds better. If it is more deadly (as an unintentional, accidental feature), we will have problems. A worse scenario is when mutations also allow “vaccine escape”. This means that existing vaccines will not be able to reduce the infectivity and severity of the virus.
Other serious coronaviruses that infect humans, the original SARS-CoV-1 in 2002 and the MERS in 2012, were more deadly than SARS-CoV-2 (causing COVID-19), but contagious. Was much lower. Therefore, virologists and epidemiologists were very careful about the possibility, but they never became a pandemic. By disbanding the surveillance station in 2018 and separating epidemiologists from previous coronavirus endemic areas, SARS-CoV-2 was able to sneak up on us. With little emphasis on testing capabilities, it was able to continue to spread until it became widespread.
So this will bring you back to the first point. The approved vaccines we have in the United States are working. They reduce the risk of getting COVID, and even if infected, the severity of the disease is usually not severe enough to require hospitalization and certainly significantly reduces the risk of death. Therefore, the observation is that patients currently hospitalized for COVID are by far the most completely unvaccinated patients.
As long as some people choose not to be vaccinated, there is a breeding environment for mutations. Given the number of fellow citizens who chose not to be vaccinated, it is unlikely that they will reach herd immunity. As the saying goes, if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. Therefore, the rest of us need to live with this virus and hope that booster vaccines will be able to control mutations of new concern in the future.
Irving Kent Loh, MD, is a preventive cardiologist and director of the Ventura Heart Institute in Thousand Oaks. Email him at [email protected].
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