What is the likelihood of a breakthrough infection?

Sufficient evidence shows that the COVID-19 vaccine dramatically reduces the risk of serious illness, but talk about breakthrough infections causes fear among vaccinated people. Continue to cause resistance among those who do not.

President Joe Biden sought to anticipate these concerns by citing the notable statistics of September 9. speech..

“Recent data show that there is only one confirmed positive case per 5,000 fully vaccinated Americans per day,” he said.

Through a pandemic, experts Difficult To determine the exact number of vaccinated people infected with COVID-19. We wanted to understand where the numbers came from, how they were calculated, and what they tell us about the spread of breakthroughs.

Analyzing data about breakthroughs

The statistics were first published in the issue of The Morning. Newsletter Published by New York Times.. This issue was intended to expose widespread misconceptions about the potential for breakthrough infections.

To get to the figure Times Reporter David Leonhard calculated an average daily COVID-19 cases per resident in three locations in Virgin, Utah, and King County, Washington, including Seattle. Leonhard found that the average vaccinated American was approximately one-5,000th more likely to be infected with COVID-19 on a particular day.

In high-vaccination areas such as Seattle, vaccinated people are probably even less likely to get COVID-19, about 1 in 10,000 per day. Unvaccinated people in King County were about 10 times more likely to be infected with COVID-19 than vaccinated people.

Statistics “reinforce what we know from many other sources. Vaccines dramatically reduce the chance of infection,” said Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Nicholas Wada. “The impact is even greater with respect to severe illness and death, even if the delta mutant is predominant.”

Since the publication of the Times article, a new analysis from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been revealed. This suggests that the average chance of breakthroughs is even lower.

On September 10th, the day after Biden’s speech, the CDC report Analysis of vaccine efficacy across 13 jurisdictions from April 4th to July 17th. CDC Said In May, the investigation of non-serious breakthrough cases ceased, but the September analysis matched case monitoring data with 13 vaccine registries. Together, the jurisdiction accounted for a quarter of the US population, including low-vaccination states such as Alabama and Louisiana.

Jennifer Kates, Senior Vice President of the Kaiser Family Foundation, used CDC data to calculate the potential for breakthroughs across all jurisdictions. She found that the chances of June 20-July 17 were lower than what Leonhard found. It’s about 1 / 5,000 a week, or about 1 / 35,000 a day.

Consider these warnings

There is a limit to the number of breakthrough infection risks.

“It’s important to emphasize that this statistic doesn’t tell you,” Wada said.

The first complex factor is that breakthrough infections are likely to be underestimated and underreported. Vaccines are so powerful in reducing the symptoms of the disease that many people experiencing breakthrough infections may not even recognize it.

Leonhard said there was no reason to believe that the health department underestimated the number of positive tests when contacted by email. But by definition, they can’t count breakthroughs that are never identified. He acknowledged his article, but Biden did not.

“It’s hard to know how many of them are, but I think there are quite a few,” Leonhard told PolitiFact. “Fortunately, many of the undetected cases are so mild that they are unlikely to be transmitted.”

The difficulty of identifying the actual number of breakthroughs reflects the fact that the vaccine has achieved its intended purpose.

Emily Girly, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said: “The main purpose of vaccination is to prevent serious illness and death in the event of an infection, which can be lost, especially in public debates.”

In addition, the method of data collection depends on the jurisdiction. Virginia, for example, keeps detailed records of coronavirus infections by vaccination status. In contrast, in Florida, where virus cases are skyrocketing. NS No report A number of groundbreaking cases.

The second caveat to the statistics is that they are averages that do not capture intra-community and inter-community variability. This means that in the worst outbreaks of COVID-19, you are more likely to experience a breakthrough infection. People in areas where the disease is widespread are more likely to encounter the virus than people in areas where the virus is controlled.

Joshua Sharfstein, Vice Dean of Bloomberg School, likewise, the likelihood of experiencing a breakthrough infection depends on the precautions someone takes.

Breakthrough statistics “useful for a very wide stadium, but they are not immutable for viruses and there is no guarantee that behavior will not be an issue,” he said.

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