What you need to understand the variant

Scientists have been moving rapidly since the World Health Organization designated Omicron. Variant of concern In late November. Observations arrive one after another and are often posted directly to social media without the warnings and uncertainties of peer-reviewed or published papers. Watching science unfold in real time can be confusing and misleading.

“We will see new information and new research every few weeks every day.” Said “One study doesn’t really prove anything,” said Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, WHO Chief Scientist.

So what do researchers need to do weeks or months ahead to better understand Omicron (and future variants)? And how do you need to measure their progress? Here is a guide to follow.

Omicron was first identified in South Africa in late November, and cases in South Africa began to rise faster than previous waves.

South African public health agency Estimate Omicron has accounted for the majority of coronavirus cases in recent weeks, based on the following genomic sequencings. Small share Of that positive test sample.

The number of cases is also increasing rapidly UK, With Denmark Norway, Where Omicron is likely to dominate. The United States is also facing an increase in incidents, Low level The variant has been detected so far.In the case of Omicron Expected to riseBut for now, the Delta variant remains dominant in the United States.

However gEnomic sequencing There are some challenges. It takes time and it takes at least a week for the results to appear.Some countries Perform more sequences than others..It can also be BiasedEspecially in the early stages of monitoring new variants.

With a test maker Government researchers Omicron also states that it does not appear to diminish the ability of the most commonly used PCR and rapid home tests to identify cases of the virus.

Variant spreads Reproduction number, This shows the number of people expected to catch the virus from one infected person. The following estimates show that South Africa’s reproduction numbers were higher in December than at any other time, except at the start of the pandemic.

This high reproduction number suggests that Omicron may spread more easily than previous variants and may circumvent some of the protection provided by vaccines and previous infections. Modelers have discovered that Omicron can be several times more contagious than the South African Delta. Who..

Researcher UK When Denmark, Countries with higher delta incidence than South Africa draw similar conclusions, and modelers estimate that Omicron cases are doubling every 2-3 days at these locations.

However, experts say it may take weeks or months for the scientific community to better understand why Omicron appears to be more contagious.Researchers Working to decide Whether the characteristics of the variant essentially make it more contagious, or whether many of its mutations may help avoid the immune system stimulated by the vaccine or previous infection.

There is some early evidence that Omicron can re-infect people more easily than the delta type.The first data to look at this is South African scientist Similar trends can be seen In englandHowever, experts emphasize that reinfection should be monitored in different populations over a long period of time.

Number of laboratory He also began testing how vaccines and antibodies induced by previous infections compete with Omicron. After combining blood samples and variants from vaccinated, boost-immunized, and previously infected people, scientists monitor the number of antibodies that attack the virus.

Early data suggest that people who received two mRNA vaccines had lower antibody levels against Omicron compared to Delta, Vaccination combined with previous infection — Or vaccination Plus booster — Still provides reasonable protection. Health officials are encouraging people to take booster shots to increase their defense against Omicron.

Vaccine manufacturers While small Pfizer studies have suggested a booster effect, we are also looking for ways to adjust the dose to more directly target new variants. Strong protection Against Omicron.

Antibodies The body’s immune system.. Another line of defense against the virus, T cells, is thought to be more protective against serious illness. Laboratory studies of their performance against mutants are limited because it is difficult for scientists to collect these cells.But researchers have shown that there are still T cells Likely to recognize Omicron When Maintain their protection Even if the virus mutates.

Since laboratory tests cannot completely reproduce the complexity of the human immune system, scientists also need to monitor how effective vaccine and booster effects are in the real world. Vaccine efficacy studies, in contrast to laboratory studies, follow a large number of people over a long period of time.

I don’t know yet Much of Omicron mutations Variants are more or less more serious than previous versions of the virus. It has more mutations than previous mutants of concern (there are about 50, many of which are among the viruses most directly targeted by immune defense), but one of these mutations. The departments may work together. Cancel each other..

Scientists cannot begin estimating the severity of the mutation until weeks after the increase in infection, until hospitalization or the most likely experience of serious illness. However, Omicron is just beginning to spread worldwide and there is little data on its severity.

It’s almost time to look at South Africa, where Omicron has been circulating for weeks. So far, parts of Country Indicates low hospitalization and mortality rates. However, many inpatients in these areas are young, and it is still clear whether the mild consequences seen in South Africa are due to the low likelihood that young people will become extremely ill or die from the disease. Not. Immunity from previous infections or vaccinations can also cause mild illness.

Experts say more data is needed from other parts of the world with different levels of immunity at different ages before drawing more general conclusions. It’s worth noting that researchers are still discussing whether the variant is more toxic, even months after the global surge in delta variants.

Manufacturer Treatment Severe Covid is testing whether their intervention remains effective.According to many people are expected to do so the WhoHowever, monoclonal antibodies may not work as well. Regeneron’s manufacturer states that antibody treatment may be less effective against Omicron, but the drug can be fine-tuned as needed.