Health
A new way to help epidemiologists map the spread of COVID-19
New York: Researchers have developed a method that we believe can help epidemiologists to more efficiently predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Published in the journal Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, this study outlines solutions to the “SIR” epidemic model. This model is commonly used to predict the number of people who are susceptible to a virus epidemic and have been infected and recovered.
This method was created by researchers at the Rochester Institute of Technology (RTI) in the United States.
They said that by using this solution in their models, epidemiologists could quickly predict many different scenarios of how COVID-19 will spread based on various variables. The predictions made by the mathematical model help civil servants make policy decisions about when to apply and remove restrictions intended to flatten the infection rate curve.
Applied mathematicians who developed this method said they were excited to find a way to apply their skills to fight a pandemic. “We saw a popular article about the” SIR “model and immediately wrote a paper, knowing that our method could speed up the process,” said research author Nathaniel Barlow, RIT. Associate Professor said.
“Our goal was to get better tools for professionals fighting this disease,” Barlow added.
This method was based on previously developed solutions to very different problems in predicting thermodynamics, hydrodynamics, and light trajectories around black holes. Over the last six years, they have worked extensively with college students on these issues and have found that the solutions for the “SIR” epidemic model have very similar mathematical structures.
The author has never worked in the field of epidemiology before, but previous studies have been seamlessly translated into this new field.
“We play an important role in providing algorithms that support scientific research and prediction. The technology developed here is common in many different disciplines,” the study author writes.
As of Sunday morning, the number of cases worldwide was 6,059,017 and the death toll increased to 369,106, according to Johns Hopkins University. There are currently 1,770,165 confirmed cases and 103,776 deaths in the United States, both of which are the highest in the world.
(IANS)
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