Covid 19 will end in India in mid-September, says Department of Health officials

When will the coronavirus pandemic end in India? No clear answer is yet available, but senior officials from the Ministry of Health predict that an Indian pandemic could enter mid-September this year.

The pandemic in India will end in mid-September, according to Dr. Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General of Public Health (Public Health), Department of Health and Family Welfare.

In his article in the International Journal of Epidemiology, Kumar, along with Deputy Secretary-General of the Ministry of Health’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Leparroy, predicts that the pandemic will disappear in India in mid-September. ..

Their predictions are based on Bailey’s model, where the relative removal rate (BMRRR) is considered to reach the conclusion.

Dr. Kumar, who speaks with IANS, said, “There is a well-known model called the Bailey model. It’s based on relative deletion rates, which means the number of cases entering and leaving the pool. If the number equals the number of patients removed, the factor reaches the 100% threshold and then this pandemic ends.”

This model calculates the percentage removed. This is the percentage of people eliminated in the infected population. In addition, a regression analysis was performed to show the linear relationship between total infection rate and total recovery rate.

“This model can be applied to any infectious disease. No matter what you do, it reaches 100% a day. Relative clearance rates either cure or kill all infected people “It was 42% when we surveyed it on May 19, but now it’s about 50% and 100% in mid-September,” Kumar said. I will.

According to this mathematical calculation, progressively higher rates reflect the right direction and the success of the control measures taken. This study uses linear regression analysis and shows that the linear line reaches 100 in mid-September 2020.

“So, at that point, the number of infected people could be interpreted to be the same as the number of patients eliminated, so the factor reaches a threshold of 100%,” the study said. ..

“This is a very good model to support the analysis and interpretation of state and district data (whenever there is a large number of cases) and it also helps in the relevant decision making in the control activity of the COVID 19 pandemic.” The study said.

“This will further help the government take long-term disease prevention and intervention programs,” it said.

But Kummer said that all mathematical models are not absolute and depend on the quality of the data available.

“All states have different policies in reporting the number of cases. Some report only severe cases, some report both severe and mild cases. With fewer tests being conducted in the state, fewer cases are being reported, so it is very important to report the correct data for more accurate results,” Kumar said.

Talking about implementing lockdowns in the country, Kumar said lockdowns could have even better results.

“We couldn’t achieve what we could have, but the idea of ​​lockdown was very good, but for a variety of reasons it wasn’t very effective. Down is a more administrative decision, but actual action needs to be taken at the community level,” Kumar told IANS. “Otherwise, we wouldn’t be able to benefit from it, he added.

“If you allow an outbreak and no action is taken at the community level, it’s very difficult to control the outbreak,” Kumar said.

When asked what percentage of the population would be infected in India, Kumar said the study did not predict the number of cases in the country. “We can’t predict how much the population will be affected. This will be a huge factor in how people maintain distances and how public health measures will be implemented in the future. It depends on the matter.

“It also depends on how different governments behave,” Kumar said, adding that it is very possible to prevent the sheer number of corona cases from happening within the country.

“There must be uniformity in applying public health measures at the community level across the country. My model does not suggest a number of cases. I only predicted when this would end. Depends on the surveillance system and the quality of the data.”