Health
Did the mutation help the spread of the coronavirus? More evidence, but protracted questions
For a few months, Scientists discussed Did some of the variants of the coronavirus that prevailed in most parts of the world do so because they were more contagious than other viruses?
Experts said Thursday that a team of researchers reported new evidence that could deepen discussions rather than resolve them. In a pandemic that changes shape from day to day, too much uncertainty remains.
of New reportPosted by Journal Cell, suggesting that this variant, led by investigators at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, has such benefits. Other researchers said the discovery was not yet conclusive.
The underlying questions are as important as ever to understand the early stages of a pandemic and to predict how it will evolve in the coming months. If the variant-defining genetic glitch, known as D614G, even gave a slight increase in transmissibility, it would be explanatory Why the infection exploded in some areas No other with similar density and other attributes. Other experts argue that variability is much more likely to spread by accident and outbound from an explosive outbreak in Europe.
Last month, virologists at Scripps Research, Florida discovered that viruses with the D614G mutation were far more infectious than those without it, at least in cell culture. These differences are necessary for high transmission to occur in the real world, but are rarely enough. There is no evidence that the D614G variant makes people sick.
This new paper, led by theoretical biologist Bette Korber, presents evidence in the form of research results, examination of infected patients, and extensive statistical analysis of pandemics in which D614G variants have been repeatedly inherited in cities, regions, and countries. I am. “The consistency of this pattern is highly statistically significant, suggesting that the G614 variant may have fitness benefits,” the authors conclude.
In an interview, Dr. Cober said the three lines of evidence “all support the idea that this is more likely to be a more contagious virus,” than other variants. “This is the most predominant virus in the world, it took only about a month to develop, and now it’s the virus we should pay attention to.”
The report also acknowledged that other alternatives could be accounted for, including the so-called founder effect-advantageous, and rooted in transmission dynamics in the region where the variant first took off. Other studies have discovered No evidence of increased contagiousness For the D614G and many scientists, the problem remains open.
Dr. Mark Schard, a biostatistician at the University of California, Los Angeles, said: .. “But this is a very difficult problem, and the evolution and demography are complex, so there is far more work to do.”
Dr. Cober helped scientists focus on the D614G mutation in early May, paper “When introduced in a new area, it quickly becomes the dominant form,” he claims. The new report is an extension of the previous one, and Dr. Cober said her group intends to test different variants of animals and continue the investigation to see if differences in infection can be detected. Stated.
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