The fear behind COVID mortality statistics

Whether the world is on the second wave of the pandemic or on the grip of the first wave is controversial. But what is certain is that the recent infection with COVID-19 has changed something of note.

The question is why and if it continues.

COVID-19 reportedly killed approximately 300 people a day in the United States in April and May, accounting for up to 8% of infected people. In early July, it fell to about 5%.

It’s not just a US trend. Research Milan Mortality dropped “dramatically” from 24% of patients admitted in March to just 2% in May. To England, COVID-19 inpatient mortality rate increased from 6% to 1.5%.

That’s good news. Indeed, if we had been infected with the coronavirus early in the pandemic, many people who would have died because of more recent infections are still alive.

But Australian epidemiologists backed up the warning from the best health authorities that we shouldn’t be dazzled by the numbers. Total deaths, including Australia, are almost certainly increasing. It’s also possible we’ve been around the corner due to the proliferation of new victims.

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Reason why few people die in COVID-19

On Thursday, the United States reported its single largest surge in new coronavirus cases with 65,000 infections. Still, deaths have fallen 75% since the April peak.

US President Donald Trump ignores the surge in infectious diseases, but the death toll is falling.

“99% [COVID-19 cases] It’s completely harmless,” he wrote in a recent tweet, Mortality -Percentage of confirmed infectious disease deaths-Currently around 6% in the United States.

Nonetheless, deaths per known infection are certainly decreasing. These are some theories about why that is happening.

One difference is clinical care. Healthcare professionals are now spending a few months identifying what works best in tackling this disease.

“We were like stumbling in the dark. Now we feel a little better,” said Dr. Taison Bell, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Virginia. New York Times..

For example, a really simple technique for critically ill patients Prone position.. This means that putting them on the stomach can improve lung function. In some cases, while anticoagulants are beneficial, the steroid dexamethasone may help calm the immune system out of control.

More vulnerable people are better protected. Also, fewer people are catching COVID-19 in hospitals. These people were already ill and were likely to die.

Virus is just a virus

The general fall of cases in many countries means that hospitals are not overloaded, so they can better care for sick people.

However, professor Peter Collignon, an infectious disease specialist at the Australian National University School of Medicine, said all hope that the virus might have transformed into something non-fatal is useless.

“The mortality rate seems to be declining, because we are doing more testing,” he told news.com.au.

“I wish COVID-19 was less toxic, but I just missed another case.”

In the early pandemics, only those who were more ill were tested because they were already showing symptoms when the test kit was in short supply. In other words, more positive results were obtained and the fatality rate (CFR) looked larger.

Now, people who feel good can get swabs, and many asymptomatic cases occur that can be treated early or can be easily shaken off, lowering CFR.

Data from the United States COVID tracking project (Below) confirms this trend. Positive results have diminished due to a significant increase in testing in the United States. Despite the fact that more people are infected overall.

young person

Professor Collignon investigated mortality rates around the world, centered on South Korea and Australia, two countries that have successfully dealt with pandemics so far. Both CFRs are relatively low, for example much lower than in the United States.

However, it is Singapore, and data from here show a fatality rate of only 0.1%. Johns Hopkins University, It may provide greater clues.

“In Singapore, most mortality rates Migrant worker A young and healthy person.”

In Florida, the average age of people diagnosed with COVID-19 is now 35 compared to 65 in March. Mortality decreases with age.

Where mortality is stable

During most pandemics, the actual mortality rate declines over time.

“The (2009) swine flu pandemic had an original mortality rate of about 6-8% in Mexico, so everyone thought it was that bad,” said Collignon.

“Although mortality was 3% in Australia, but in fact it was 0.02% for all infected people, so be very careful when determining mortality in the early stages of the disease. ”

Professor Corignon said he expected the mortality rate in Australia to settle between 0.5 and 1 percent.

“It’s still 10 to 20 times more deadly than seasonal flu.”

Unlike President Trump’s allegations, that doesn’t mean that 99 percent of people come unharmed.

“For every 100 people infected, about 1 will die, but 10 require hospitalization.”

In the elderly, the chance of death is much higher. But young people could not blaspheme, he said.

“Even though 20s and 30s are unlikely to die, if you get it enough, you’re dead, so we should do everything we can to stop it from spreading.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a leading infectious disease specialist in the United States, is equally concerned.

“Comforting with lower mortality is a false story,” he said on Tuesday, saying that even if COVID-19 spreads like a wildfire, lower mortality still means more deaths. It pointed out.

“There are many other very dangerous and bad things about this virus. Don’t let yourself fall into false self-satisfaction,” he told a TV channel. CNBC.

Delay of death

Another concern is that CFR numbers have fallen partially as deaths have not kept up with the recent increase in case numbers.

For victims, the average time from onset of symptoms to death is COVID tracking project.

However, some young sick patients may take longer to die. In other words, these dead have not yet appeared. Broadway actor Nick CorderoThe 41-year-old died in 95 days of pain after diagnosis.

In addition, large uncontrolled spikes in infections can overwhelm hospitals, meaning that some patients do not get the treatment they need and die unnecessarily.

On Friday, Victoria’s chief medical officer, Brett Sutton, warned that Melbourne would inevitably have more deaths.

“The surge seen in the last few days will increase the number of hospitalizations and ICU cases and deaths in the next few days.”

As of Friday, Victoria had 932 active cases and is now Australia’s worst hit state. If the mortality rate is certainly 1%, then at least 9 of these people can die. All eyes are on whether that happens.

The more cases you have, the more dead you will be-it’s a simple, uncontroversial equation.