Long Covid: High economic burden justifies further prevention efforts

This briefing examines overseas evidence on the economic impacts of Long Covid, considers the potential impacts in the New Zealand context and outlines measures the New Zealand Government can take to mitigate these costs.

Long Corona: It is recognized that there is a significant impact on the health of the nation

Long COVID refers to continued changes in health for months or years after infection with COVID-19.¹ Long-Covid affects multiple organs and systems in the body and can affect people of any age. Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive impairment that can lead to impaired memory and attention. Even moderate symptoms can interfere with daily tasks.² (Our Previous Long Corona Briefing For more information please click here.

Globally, the population prevalence of symptomatic long COVID is estimated to be approximately 6-7% of all adults..¹ Many affected people are unable to work and drop out of the labor force altogether.^1-3 Those who remain in the workforce may be less productive and may need additional support to perform their roles (See Appendix We further discuss the types of impacts that Long COVID will have on the workforce and the estimated prevalence of these impacts. These impacts will be felt across businesses, healthcare,⁴ and education sectors, and the economy as a whole.

International evidence on economic costs

While New Zealand has not conducted robust analysis of the spread of Long Covid and loss of productivity, international estimates of the impact on the economy are concerning. These include: The surrounding area GDP loss of £1.5 to £2.7 billion In the UK in 2030, due to declining productivity and reallocation of medical resources, Total economic and social welfare costs are $864 billion to $1.04 trillion For the OECD as a whole, this is annual. Economist Impact GDP losses from Long Covid in 2024 are estimated to be between 0.5% and 2.3% (average 1.0%, median 0.6%) across eight high-income countries.

Of particular relevance to New Zealand, Australian researchers have conducted a detailed economic analysis of how long-Covid-related labour force reductions have affected productivity and GDP from 2022 to 2024. Just published study⁵ Suggests that a long COVID-19 pandemic could damage the Australian economy AUD 9.6 billion (95% CI: $4.7 billion to $15.2 billion)equivalent 0.5% of Australia's GDPImportantly, this estimate is likely conservative (See Appendix).

Potential costs for New Zealand

Given Similarities The impact of the pandemic on New Zealand and Australia is such that a long COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a comparable economic impact. New Zealand's GDP (NZ$410 billion The gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year ending March 2024 faces a decline of 0.5% due to the effects of the long COVID-19 pandemic, as seen in Australia, which is about 2 billion New Zealand dollars Annually.

The above estimates and evidence that Long Covid is impacting productivity in Aotearoa come from survey results which show that Long Covid is putting a huge strain on worker productivity. Long COVID Registry Aotearoa The report found that people who felt they had a long corona life worked between 7.3 and 9.4 hours less per week in 2023/4 compared to before the pandemic. In addition to this reduction in working hours, between 61% and 71% of respondents reported presenteeism (working despite feeling unwell).

What should the New Zealand Government do?

It is clear that decisive action is needed. Global evidence shows that both the health and economic burden of Long Covid in New Zealand is likely to be high. Remaining high infection rates mean that every week a new cohort of New Zealanders joins the Long Covid draw. The three key actions are:

• PreventionThe New Zealand Government must take further steps to reduce the risk and incidence of Long Covid. This requires the following actions:
  • Reduce the number of cases Use well-proven public health and social measures (including indoor ventilation and the use of masks where appropriate), with a focus on settings such as schools, hospitals and public transport where there is a high risk of COVID-19 transmission and where sector-level impacts are already being felt.
  • Improving vaccination rates this is Greatly reduce risk Incidence of Long COVID in adults and children after COVID-19 infection.^6-8 New Zealand's COVID-19 vaccine strategy should reflect this knowledge, focus on high-risk occupations and immediately extend regular booster vaccinations to younger people. teacher.
• Professional and social support Occupational support can include extended sick leave policies, workplace accommodations to improve productivity, workplace safety assessments, and comprehensive rehabilitation programs to help affected people return to work. Social support Must be provided For those who can't work.
• Strengthen economic analysis and research. Robust field studies are needed to quantify the true number and costs of Covid-19 and Long Covid in New Zealand, building on other New Zealand studies to assess worker productivity losses due to ill health.^9-11 These studies should include comparisons with appropriate control groups (e.g. people with a history of COVID-19 but without long COVID-19).^{twenty three}Without accurate data, it will be difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions about how to efficiently and fairly protect New Zealanders from the health and economic harms of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

Long Covid is not just a health crisis; it also imposes a huge economic burden. As other countries have shown, the impacts of Long Covid on workforce participation, productivity and overall economic performance are enormous. New Zealand has yet to conduct its own detailed analysis, but this is clearly necessary. In the meantime, the New Zealand Government needs to further invest in preventative approaches using evidence-based measures to reduce the unsustainably high incidence of acute Covid-19 infections and Long Covid.

Author details

Associate Professor Amanda KvalsvigPublic Health Department | Public Health Department
University of Otago | Otakao Waikaboat

Dr. John CarrScientific Leader, Centre for Public Health Communication, School of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington

Professor Paula LorgeryUniversity of Auckland | Leaf-Level Water

Professor Nick WilsonCo-Director, School of Public Health and Centre for Public Health Communication, University of Otago, Wellington

Professor Michael BakerDirector, School of Public Health and Centre for Public Health Communication, University of Otago, Wellington

• It's common for people to be unable to work full-time, or at all.In a large UK community cohort study,³ Participants reporting currently having long COVID were approximately 34% more likely to be economically inactive up to one year after infection compared to before infection (adjusted odds ratio: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.05-1.72). Among those reporting long COVID, 13.1% experienced long-term absence, compared with 9.8% of participants who were not long COVID but contracted COVID-19. Similar findings have been reported in the United States.²
  Nearly one in five UK doctors who responded to the Labour Force Survey said they were unable to work because of the coronavirus pandemic.⁴ Hundreds of doctors¹² and teacher In the UK, legal action is currently being taken against systems-level failures to protect health.
  The Long COVID Registry Aotearoa also reported declines in domestic work and volunteering, with a significant decrease in the informal care they provided and an increase in the informal care they received.
• Workplace safety and performance are concerns. Economic and other pressures may lead people with Long Covid to continue working despite feeling unwell (presenteeism). Cognitive impairment is common with mild infections.^13-16 Some workplaces indicate that formal evaluation for memory, reasoning, and executive function impairments is warranted. Occupations where the impact of long-term COVID on safety is critical include health care workers,¹⁷ Airline pilot,¹⁸ Bus and train drivers, truck drivers, electricians, emergency personnel, etc.
• Essential workforce affected by COVID-19: Occupations at higher risk of COVID-19 infection and reinfection also have a higher risk of long COVID-19, so strategic action is needed to protect the key workforce. Analysis of COVID-19 rates by occupational group conducted by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in 2022 showed higher infection rates in education and health-related occupations.¹⁹ This is consistent with UK data.³
• The economic forecasts cited in this briefing are conservative. For example, an Australian study by Costantino et al.⁵ The true cost is likely to be much higher because this estimate does not take into account reinfection, nor does it include wider impacts on the economy, such as job losses due to caring for someone with Long Covid.²⁰ British Modelling These wider impacts have been shown to be much larger in scale than direct losses in productivity and employment. Long Covid also has a significant direct impact on healthcare costs. A recent UK study reported that compared with a control group, healthcare costs for people with Long Covid were 44% higher in the year after diagnosis.^{twenty one}