Much larger prevalence of COVID-19 than originally reported: a study

This study, published in the journal EClinical Medicine, found that children account for about one-third of the estimated undiagnosed cases in the United States.

With thousands of early cases of COVID-19 not detected earlier this year, it was discovered that the disease was much more prevalent in China’s Wuhan and Seattle during the U.S. week prior to blockade measures in cities. did.

Researchers at the University of Texas (UT) in Austin, USA, have also concluded that the first case of COVID-19 in Seattle may have been traced back to Christmas or New Year’s Day. This study, published in the journal EClinical Medicine, found that children account for about one-third of the estimated undiagnosed cases in the United States.

Researchers found that COVID-in Wuhan and Seattle based on re-examined pharyngeal swabs taken from patients suffering from influenza-like illness in Seattle in January, late February and early March in Wuhan. The range of 19 epidemics was estimated.

Subsequent analysis of the samples in each city found that most were influenza, but some researchers found that they were positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. “The data suggest that there was at least one COVID-19 in every two cases of influenza, even before we realized that the COVID-19 was widespread,” said Lauren Ansel Myers, UT Austin professor. Stated.

“By knowing how the flu was prevalent at the time, we were able to reasonably identify the prevalence of COVID-19, said Mr. Myers. When the Chinese government closed Wuhan on January 22, Researchers said there were 422 known incidents.

However, Myers and his team used a new epidemiological model to estimate data for cotton swabs in the city and found that there could be more than 12,000 cases of undetected symptoms of COVID-19. It was.

On March 9, a week when Seattle schools were closed because of the virus, researchers found that more than 9,000 people with flu-like symptoms had COVID-19, about a third of the total. Are estimated to be children. The data do not mean that health authorities were aware of these infections, but that they may have gone unnoticed during the early uncertainties of the pandemic.

“Because COVID-19 seems overwhelmingly mild in children, an estimate of symptomatic childhood cases in Seattle suggests that there could have been thousands of mild cases at that time.” And the first author of a postdoctoral research in the Myers lab.

According to some other studies, about half of COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic, with thousands more infected in Wuhan and Seattle before the implementation of their respective blockades in each city. I think.

“By using a combination of research techniques and modeling, we can look back at the history of this pandemic,” Myers said.

“This helps us understand how the pandemic spread rapidly around the world and provides insight into what might be seen in the coming weeks and months,” she said. Said.

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