Experts warn that the coronavirus explosion abroad “actually tests” Australia’s hotel quarantine program

The explosion of COVID-19 cases abroad puts a strain on Australia’s hotel quarantine system and increases the likelihood of “leakage” to the community, major epidemiologists say.

Victoria does not accept returnees from abroad, Data show that positive cases in hotel quarantine in New South Wales have doubled in the last two weeks.

This follows the federal government’s increase in the international arrival limit. From 6,000 to 6,290 people per week.

The increase in COVID-19 cases in quarantine is not unexpected, with infections rising rapidly in the top two returnees in Sydney: the United States, Europe, Pakistan and India.

In New South Wales, there was only one fear of quarantine when two security guards at the Sydney Marriott Hotel tested positive in August.

However, epidemiologist Mary Louise McCrows said the program was about to be “actually tested.”

“The hotel wasn’t built for quarantine, so there will be occasional incidents,” said Professor McClose, an adviser to the World Health Organization.

“The virus doesn’t understand the rules and regulations. It just takes every opportunity, such as contaminated surfaces and staff being alert.”

“Perfect Storm” in Melbourne

The second wave of COVID-19 in Melbourne proved that the quarantine was watertight. One infected hotel manager caused an outbreak and several months of blockade.

“What happened in Victoria was the worst, it would be difficult to reproduce in any other state, but it’s always possible,” said Professor McClaus.

She said it is currently very difficult to accurately determine risk due to the different levels of virus surveillance in some parts of the world.

“India cannot catch up, not everyone is being tested, and there are serious underreports in Bangladesh.”

Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, said hotel quarantine seemed to work well in New South Wales, but now there is increasing pressure on the system.

He admitted that the leak was unlikely, but said it could occur “occasionally” due to inaccuracies and carelessness.

“For example, one in 1,000 (or more) people who have been infected for more than 14 days but have not been detected by the test get out of the quarantine and unfortunately give it to someone,” said Professor Blakely. ..

“”[Or] Quarantine staff will pick it up, have a negative test result, have a 20% chance of occurring, and take it home. “

However, epidemiologists at the University of Sydney’s Fiona Stanaway said mountaineering in hotel quarantine should not cause unnecessary vigilance.

“Interest rates are rampaging abroad, so there will certainly be more positive people, but I think it’s a manageable risk,” she said.

“March and April US and European interest rates were very high and it was controlled here. I don’t think there is necessarily a reason to worry about this third wave here.

Dr. Stannaway said people under quarantine were tested on days 2 and 10 and were “very small” likely to infect anyone in the community.

She said a powerful hotel quarantine system needs to be complemented by an effective contact tracing team in the event of a leak.

“And unfortunately that’s all we can do until the vaccine comes out.”

Professor Blakely said New South Wales and Victoria had “very” good contact tracing systems, and Queensland was good, but the rest of the states hadn’t been tested yet.

Quarantine facilities outside major cities

The federal government recently announced its intention to expand Darwin’s Howard Springs facility to handle approximately 1,000 international returnees a month.

Professor McLaws said Australia’s handling of COVID-19 relies on national quarantine facilities located outside the city

She said a former Workers camp in Howard Springs, 25 kilometers from Darwin, checked a lot of boxes.

“With a very large number of positive return travelers, no dedicated environment, no really good airflow changes, and no highly trained staff, it has a spillover effect, which flows into the community. Let’s do it, “she said.

“Hotel quarantine was a reasonable and interim solution to bring Australians back safely, but nine months have passed since the public health emergency was called.”

National review of hotel quarantine The hotel program, also referred to as “vulnerable to violations,” assisted the national quarantine facility.

NSW accounts for the majority of returnees with 3,000 people a week, but NSW Health said hotel quarantine was “on track” and services were enhanced to meet new arrival limits. It was.

While NSW police manage the quarantine hotel, NSW Health operates a “health hotel” for people in need of medical assistance.

A spokesperson for the New South Wales Department of Health told ABC that the Sydney Regional Health Department is currently looking for additional apartments to use as quarantine facilities and is looking for more staff.

Currently, there are 532 patients at the Sydney Health Hotel, 65 of whom are COVID-19 positive.

“”[In a health hotel] There are floors designated for patients with positive, negative, or pending results. Physical isolation of the patient cohort according to COVID-19 status is an important part of the infection prevention and management process, “said a spokesman.

Bring more Australians home

All experts agreed that getting Australians home is a risk worth taking.

“We want to maintain international ties. Some risk is worth it,” said Professor Blakely.

“In addition, we need to seriously consider accepting international students. After all, international students come from very low-risk countries, such as China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea.”

Queensland and Western Australia have recently increased their international intake Travelers to 1,150 and 1,165, respectively, per week.

South Australia currently accepts 600 passengers a week, up from 240.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told ABC that there are about 45,400 Australians abroad registered with DFAT and 35,700 awaiting their return.

The prime minister had previously pointed out the possibility of home quarantine for travelers from “safe” countries, but Professor McClaus said this could be a big bet.

“How can I prevent visitors from jumping out of the house?”

“We need to keep the surveillance device in place … depending on where we come from, quarantine at home can be a disaster,” she said.