Health
Christmas is at stake due to a surge in coronavirus cases “when England returns to a three-tier system”
Regular Christmas can be at risk, as experts warn of returning to a hierarchical system after the blockade COVID The number of cases will increase rapidly.
Government adviser Sage said the November blockade is underway to reduce the R number of coronaviruses below the critical “R” number.
However, scientists advising Sage warned that ending the blockade on December 2 and resurrecting the three-tier system could reduce the chances of families gathering on Christmas day. did.
Sage will release a document from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group (SPI-MO) Group on Modeling on Friday, introducing more stringent measures than the planned three-tier limit if the blockade ends as planned on December 2. I asked the government.
The blockade will reduce coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations, but if SPI-MO immediately introduces Tier 1 and Tier 2 rules that allow visits to pubs, bars and gyms, hard work will be quickly revoked. It warns that there is a possibility.
A (SPI-MO) Document dated November 4th, States as follows. “When England returns to the same application in the layered system that was in place before November 5, transmissions will return to the same rate of increase as they do today.”
In a passage that examined how well the three-layer system worked before the current blockade, SPI-MO said, ” Clear effect “Is about the infection rate with strict Tier 3 interventions, but” the infection rate from Tiers 1 and 2 is much lower. ”
SPI-MO, who advises the Sage Commission, examined various scenarios of how the coronavirus is controlled over the next few months and affects gatherings during the festival.
Despite harsh warnings, SPI-MO scientists say that the rules of social distance can end much sooner if vaccination is initiated. There are few cases.
He also said that the rules of social distance can be relaxed for a limited time during Christmas. When the incidence of coronavirus is low, Testing and tracing are effective, “quick and definitive intervention” makes R much lower than 1, and “keeps it for a while” by December 25th.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to return England to Tier 1 “medium”, Tier 2 “high” and Tier 3 “very high” alert levels on December 3rd. The northeastern part has reached Tier 2 due to rising coronavirus rates across the country. Johnson called for a national blockade.
The UK coronavirus dashboard states that the R rate is currently around 1-1.2, but the infection rate is increasing by 1-3% daily.
Sage believes that R-values are already below 1 in some places, especially in parts of Wales, and potentially in parts of Scotland and northwestern England.
R is expected to fall to more places next week or next week as people remain under blockade restrictions.
Experts examining case data believe that growth rates are flat and that the number of new cases per day across the UK is between 55,000 and 81,000.
It takes into account care homes, hospitals, and community cases.
The levels of older people at highest risk for Covid-19 are still rising, but the number of cases is declining in the younger age group.
The doubling time of the epidemic is believed to be between 28 and 63 days across the UK.
New figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (ONS) on Friday show that between October 31st and November 6th, there were an estimated 654,000 private UK households with Covid-19.
According to ONS, daily infections are stable at around 50,000, an increase from 618,700 from October 25-31.
According to ONS, infection rates have increased in recent weeks, but “the rate of increase is slower than in the previous week.”
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