The elderly continue to be heavily affected by the new Massachusetts coronavirus, reflecting epidemiologist views in other countries.
According to a recently published globe analysis of demographic data from the state, the last two weeks of cases of COVID-19 identified in Massachusetts are increasingly concentrated in people over the age of 60. At the same time, the proportion of known infections under the age of 30 is decreasing.
The overwhelming majority of 503 deaths associated with coronaviruses are people over 70, many of whom have underlying illnesses. 1% of Massachusetts deaths are occupants under the age of 50.
“We’re looking at the actual population distribution of the disease,” said Dr. Sandrogalea, dean of the Boston University School of Public Health. “If you look at Italy, this is exactly what they had. But in Italy, the overwhelmingly high mortality is really driven by the fact that there were far more people over 80.”
According to US census statistics, almost half of people who test positive for COVID-19 are under 50 in Massachusetts. In states where 62% of the population is under the age of 50, this figure is actually extremely low.
The fact that many young people tested positive does not surprise epidemiologists who expect the virus to spread equally to most ages. However, COVID-19 is particularly difficult for elderly people with underlying disorders and a weakened immune system.
Dr. Shira I. Delon, an epidemiologist at Tufts University School of Medicine, said: “We expect hospitalization and death data to be tracked with age, but we do not necessarily expect that positive test data reflects differences in age groups.”
Even at this point in the outbreak, it is unclear how widespread the virus was in Massachusetts. The state has significantly strengthened testing in recent weeks, but it is not yet enough to provide a complete picture, Delon said.
State infection data may be biased toward patients who have more severe symptoms. Epidemiologists know that some infected individuals have mild or no symptoms, and are not tested for viruses and are excluded from state counts. Delon said that the only way to assess the full extent of the spread was to perform a mass test on asymptomatic individuals or a blood test to determine who developed antibodies to the virus.
According to Globe analysis, the proportion of confirmed cases under 30 has dropped from 20% to 15% in the past two weeks. Epidemiologists suggest there are several reasons for the decline.
First, it could be the impact of a social distance effort that has kept people at home. Younger people may also have a more resilient immune system and are less likely to show symptoms that are serious enough to be worth testing.
At the same time, the percentage of people over 60 who have been infected has steadily increased from 26 percent to 34 percent in the past two weeks. Older people tend to have more severe symptoms and are more likely to be tested.
“In reality, the disease is overwhelmingly affecting the elderly and has underlying medical conditions,” said BU Dean, Gale. “Everyone has this infection, with death data.”
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