Health
Covid experts warn that reopening school on March 8 could result in an R number exceeding 1.
When I reopen school in March, COVID Experts warned that the R rate could be returned to or exceeded by 1.
When asked if reopening school could lead to increased coronavirus breeding rates, Professor John Edmonds said, “We are absolutely not sure. It looks like a touch-and-go. I’ll tell the Peston show.
Epidemiologists at the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine continue:
“If the school is fully opened, if the junior high school and the elementary school are opened at the same time, it would be great if the number of duplicates could be kept to less than 1.”
Talk about New Covid variant identified in Bristol, He said: “I don’t know if the Bristol variant is more contagious than the Kent variant. I don’t think so.
“Where it has advantages, it may be possible to infect previously infected or previously vaccinated people. That is a concern for that particular virus.”
Professor Edmund was asked what time scale there was to gradually return to normal, “It’s related to the speed at which you vaccinate people. It’s a really big limiting factor. I The faster they are vaccinated against high prices. The better the risk group, the faster it can be mitigated.
“Ultimately, we will switch to vaccination of low-risk groups, which will really affect the infection.
“Currently, we are vaccination of older people who do not play a significant role in transmission. They tend to be at the end of the transmission chain, not in the middle.”
He warned that it was too early to relax the restrictions before enough people were vaccinated.
He told Peston’s show: “Most people have just taken a single dose and are not completely protected, so I think it’s really dangerous to relieve now.”
When ITV News political editor Robert Peston proposes a scenario in which a high-risk group completes a second dose vaccine, Professor Edmund said: “I think there are still many cases of vaccine failure.
“Let’s say the vaccine is 90% protected. For example, that’s very good. Vaccine 90% of high-risk people. Multiply 0.9 x 0.9 to get 0.81 and 81% of the population. Can be protected, leaving almost 20% unprotected.
“And in that very optimistic scenario, 20% of the highest-risk groups remain unprotected. Therefore, when it bursts, they become infected very quickly and fill the hospital quickly. Finally, a morgue. “
Asked about his view on This summer vacation, He said: “I think we need to keep the border pretty tight for now. No one likes this, but we have identified these important variants out there, and We don’t have a new vaccine that can arm ourselves against these, yet a new variant. “
“I think traveling should be very careful,” he added.
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