Scientists say COVID-19 can become endemic, but over time it poses less social threat

Many scientists predict that the virus that causes COVID-19 will not be completely eradicated, but will be endemic. This means that it will continue to circulate in the pockets of people around the world for years.

However, the virus can become less threatening to society over time in terms of death, illness, and social isolation.

Survey of more than 100 immunologists, infectious disease researchers, and virologists in January According to the scientific journal Nature Most people working in this area (almost 90% of respondents) say they expect SARS-CoV-2 to become epidemic.

The term “endemic” refers to “a certain presence and / or normal prevalence of a disease or infectious pathogen in a population within a geographical area.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention..

One example is malaria, which is caused by parasites and transmitted to humans by mosquitoes in parts of Africa. CDC.. Influenza is another example, along with four other endemic types of coronavirus that cause the common cold.

However, experts say that these viruses do not require blockades, masks, social distance, and seasonal deaths and illnesses are compared by a combination of annual vaccines such as influenza vaccination and acquired immunity. It will be less targeted.

File-People walk the streets of Manhattan on March 1, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Pratt / Getty Images)

As Jenny Ravin, an infectious disease researcher at Emory University, explains in Nature, the number of confirmed cases continues to grow around the world and many people remain vulnerable. COVID-19 is in the pandemic stage.

At the endemic stage, the number of COVID-19 infections will be relatively constant over multiple years, with occasional relapses, Lavine said.

More than one-third of the scientists surveyed by Nature thought it was possible to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from some parts of the world, but it continued to circulate in other parts of the world. It was. Some say that the risk of developing COVID-19 will continue in areas with zero cases of COVID-19, but if most people are vaccinated, herd immunity can quickly kill them.

“I think COVID will be excluded from some countries, but the risk of reintroduction from places where vaccination and public health measures were inadequate continues,” said Christopher Dye, an epidemiologist at Oxford University. (And probably seasonal). ” , Told the journal.

Scientists said the future will depend largely on the type of immunity people receive from infections and vaccinations and how the virus evolves.

A Survey Immunity can last up to eight months after infection, but the length of immunity after the onset of COVID-19 or after vaccination is unknown, according to a publication in the journal Science last month.

More than half of the scientists surveyed by Nature believe that weakened immunity is one of the main causes of the virus epidemic.

Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, told Nature that the coronavirus could follow a path similar to that of seasonal flu, leading to an annual winter pattern.

“I think SARS-CoV-2 isn’t a serious problem and it’s like a flu,” Bloom told the journal.

Since the outbreak, more than 514,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 and more than 28.6 million cases have been identified in the United States. Johns Hopkins University Show.. The number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide exceeds 2.5 million.

For now, infectious disease experts have emphasized that the pandemic stage will not disappear soon.

Dr. Michael Ryan, director of the World Health Organization emergency program, Said at a media briefing on Monday It was “very premature” and “unrealistic” to think that the COVID-19 pandemic might stop completely by the end of 2021.

Ryan said the recent arrival of effective vaccines could dramatically reduce hospitalizations and deaths by the end of the year. He said the only focus of the world today should be to keep COVID-19 infections as low as possible and to vaccinate as many people as possible as soon as possible.

This story was reported by Cincinnati.