Rise of B117 in Alberta: What You Need to Know About The First Species Detected in the UK

If another country shows any signs, experts warn that it is not a problem, but when.

Dr. Stephanie Smith, Head of Infection Prevention and Management at the University of Alberta Hospital, said:

This is the expectation reflected in the current numbers.

The state broke the daily new B117 case record at 201 on Wednesday, broke Tuesday’s record of 195, and broke Sunday’s record of 184.

Details about the first variant detected in the UK, B117, and what it means for the state are as follows:

Is the vaccine effective against B117?

Let’s start with the good news: Yes, studies show that the vaccine is effective against the B117 mutant.

Moderna’s first findings, published in January, showed no significant effect on the ability of the vaccine to neutralize mutants when compared to wild-type viruses. This is another way of saying the original stock.

The same is true for Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca. Research shows..Preprint research led by researchers from UK Public Health Services And when posted this month, we found that both vaccines worked well against the mutants.

Is this variant more contagious?

Yes, according to a pile of evidence, it is much more contagious than the original strain.

Research papers published in journals Science Subspecies reproduction numbers were 43% to 90% higher, with similar ranges observed in Denmark, Switzerland and the United States.

Another Preprint studyThat means it hasn’t been rigorously peer-reviewed by academic journals, which turns out to be more contagious. Researchers at Imperial College in the United Kingdom have found that B117 increased replication by 40% to 70%.

If the number of reproductions is 1, the infected person will infect the other one on average.

But what if the number of reproductions increases by 50% to, for example, 1.5? A group of 100 people will infect 150 people, then 225 people, and another 225 people will be infected with 338 people.

Check this out CBC interactive See what happens when that number goes up or down.

Alberta reported the first case of a B117 community infection in late January, and doctors are worried that the state is beginning to be affected by the rapid expansion.

Edmonton’s emergency physician, Shazuma Mitani, said:

Alberta’s reproduction number (R-value) has steadily increased this month and is now around 1.14. As of the end of November, when the state was approaching the peak of the second wave, the number was 1.12.

“This will actually shape what the third wave will look like, and we need to take it seriously,” Mitani said.

What makes it more contagious?

Smith said the reason B117 is more contagious is the “million dollar problem.”

Viruses are constantly changing and many of these mutations are not important. But from time to time, the genetics of the virus will evolve to make it more contagious. In infectious races, more contagious strains begin to overtake their genetic counterparts.

And B117 is a fast runner.

Since it was first confirmed in the United Kingdom in December, it has contributed significantly to its widespread adoption in 27 European countries and is dominant in at least 10 countries.

“We are on a very similar trajectory to what we have seen in other European countries,” Smith said.

So what makes B117 more contagious? Smith says there are two theories.

The first is related to the peplomer, a receptor that binds the virus to human cells. B117 mutations in peplomer are thought to increase how well it is retained.

In other words, according to Smith, the variant is more sticky.

“If you are exposed to a virus, you can imagine that in the wild type, you had to be exposed to 100 particles in order for the virus to attach. If you were exposed to 50 particles, you would be one. It sticks. ”

The second theory is that variants replicate faster in the body, producing higher viral load. This means that, for example, when an infected person coughs or sneezes, the respiratory droplets are high in virus.

According to Smith, proper physical distance and wearing a mask are still effective ways to prevent infection. That means that if these measures are ignored, the risk is high.

“We didn’t need a distance of 4 meters before we needed 2 meters,” Smith said.

Is it more deadly?

There is evidence suggesting that B117 is more likely to cause serious illness than wild-type, but experts warn that more research is needed.

In a study published in Nature Earlier this month, British researchers found that this variant increased the risk of death by 55%. While that number is of concern, researchers note that it was translated into an absolute risk of death from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent for men aged 55 to 69 years.

Analysis by Danish researcherOn the other hand, we found that the risk of hospitalization was 64% higher in atypical cases.

The first variant of COVID-19 discovered in the United Kingdom is not only highly contagious, but can also be deadly. 2:04

From existing studies, British government scientists have concluded that this variant is “likely associated” with an increased risk of hospitalization and mortality.

However, according to Smith, UK data comes from a period of UK health resource expansion and may have a higher incidence of serious consequences.

What does this mean for Alberta?

Without the variant, Smith could have looked different in Alberta last month.

“In reality, without B117, the number of cases would probably have continued to decline,” she said. “But unfortunately, we are in a situation where we have a more contagious virus.”

The increase in more contagious strains should encourage the government to reintroduce tighter restrictions to contain the increasing number of cases, said Mitani, a doctor in the emergency room. In the vaccine and variant competition, she is worried that B117 will prevail.

“While waiting for those people to get vaccinated, there is a real risk of running into problems by overwhelming the health care system,” she said.

This is a complete game changer on how this third wave goes.-Dr. Edmonton ER, Shazma Mithani

Reflecting the experience of other countries, Hinshaw said Wednesday may need to impose additional restrictions.

“The more COVID-19 becomes, the more chances it has for individuals who, unfortunately, may not even know they are in the area they are exposed to, with very serious consequences,” she said.