Masks, vaccinations also important to keep distance, research suggests :: WRAL.com

Lauren Mascarenhas, CNN

CNN — Vaccination alone may not be enough to end the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers reported Tuesday

Even if the majority of the population is vaccinated, removing pandemic precautions can increase the spread of the virus, researchers report in the medical journal JAMA Network Open.

Mehru Patel, an assistant professor of emergency medicine at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and colleagues used a mathematical model to simulate the spread of the coronavirus among approximately 10 million people in North Carolina.

They found that coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths continued to increase if pandemic precautions such as quarantine, school closures, social distances, and wearing masks were lifted while the vaccine was being deployed. did.

“Our study found that about 1.8 million people were infected in 11 months with a more effective COVID-19 vaccine, higher vaccination rates, and maintenance of NPI (non-pharmaceutical intervention) for a population of 10.5 million. And suggests that it can prevent the deaths of 8,000 people. Keep a distance and use face masks, “they wrote.

When a vaccine with 50% efficacy was deployed to 25% of adults, the model showed an average of 2.2 million new infections if precautions were removed and 800,000 if precautions were maintained. Showed a weak new infection.

When a 90% effective vaccine was given to 75% of adults, the model showed an average of 527,409 new infections when precautions were removed and 450,575 when precautions were maintained. Showed a new infection.

They calculated that it would be better to give more people a less effective vaccine, which would reduce the risk of spreading the virus than giving a smaller number of people a more effective vaccine.

“It seems that significantly increasing its coverage, regardless of the effectiveness of the vaccine, is actually driving control,” Patel told CNN. “The vaccine was distributed to only a small number of people. If so, you may see a surge of the same magnitude as before the vaccine was given. “

Like other studies, this model showed an increased risk of Covid-19 hospitalization and death among blacks and people living in rural communities. The team noted that combining vaccination with pandemic prophylaxis reduced infections, hospitalizations, and mortality in all groups.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last month that it is almost always safe for vaccinated people to go out outdoors or indoors without wearing a mask. There are pros and cons to the guidance, and some public health experts argue that the United States has not made sufficient efforts to mitigate pandemic precautions in its efforts to vaccinate against the new coronavirus.

The CDC’s recommendations do not underestimate the importance of precautionary measures highlighted in modeling studies, said Dr. Alexander Droshenko of the University of Alberta School of Medicine in Canada in a related commentary. Rather, they “emphasize the need for a balanced approach to enable vaccinated individuals to resume low-risk activities.”

In the near future, continuing pandemic precautions will have a synergistic effect with the new coronavirus vaccination and can end the pandemic, Droshenko said.

Patel’s team did not try to pinpoint exactly when it would be safe to lift precautions in the United States, but Patel’s level of infection increased as vaccination rates approached 75% in simulations. Said it fell.

According to the latest CDC data, more than half of the US adult population and about 40% of the total population are fully vaccinated.

As Covid-19 vaccination rates increase, many states are withdrawing pandemic prophylaxis. California plans to remove all capacity limits and social distance requirements when the state fully reopens on June 15. Other states will extend the end of the pandemic limit to the scope of vaccination. I’m tied.

It includes Oregon, which has announced plans to end large-scale pandemic restrictions once 70% of its population has been vaccinated with at least one Covid-19 vaccination.

Patel and his colleagues said the findings were “to reduce the burden on COVID-19 to a level where many economic, educational and social activities could be safely resumed,” maximizing vaccine coverage and pandemics. He states that it suggests the need for collaborative efforts to implement preventative measures.