Publication of Covid model data to be discontinued as it is no longer needed

The Telegraph understands that the government will stop publishing Covid modeling in the new year.

Officials with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said it was no longer required to issue updates on R rates or model modeling to predict the number of deaths and hospitalizations.

The move is understood in society as part of the government’s Covid-19 normalization and as the UK moves away from the present, it wants to treat coronavirus in the same way as other viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or the flu. Culturally entrenched overrecognition of epidemiological variability.

The role it has played in modeling and how governments make decisions will likely be included in the Covid investigation chaired by Baroness Hallett, which will resume in February.

3 year model

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency (SAGE) and the UKHSA have been creating Covid models and forecasts essential to policy making for nearly three years.

[The UKHSA] Professor John Edmunds, epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and long-time member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-M), told the Telegraph.

The final document providing Covid modeling information will be on January 6, 2023, nearly three years after government scientific advisers first convened a special meeting to discuss the emergence of the new coronavirus in Wuhan on January 13, 2020. .

Although the risk to the UK population was said to be very low at the time, the UK went into lockdown in March 2020 and SAGE met regularly to model key components of the government response.

Government Covid-19 Modeler

At the time, that name didn’t yet exist, but on the list of attendees for this first Covid conference was Professor Peter Horby, who would later be knighted for discovering a drug to help treat Covid. Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, who has been instrumental in ensuring the UK gets the best Covid vaccine as quickly as possible, has also been knighted as Chief Medical Officer. Professor Neil Ferguson, who played a role in the UK’s lockdown as a model for up to 500,000 Britons dying of Covid in 2020; Professor Edmunds, the central figure behind one of the most pivotal models created during the pandemic.

Prof. Wei Shen Lim, the head of JCVI, which will later rule on who got which vaccine, was invited but could not attend and sent an apology, the official meeting minutes show.

In the latest documents published by the UKHSA, they say that the release of EMRG’s next Covid hospitalization and death forecasts and the January 6 consensus statement on Covid-19 will be the last.

The article contains up-to-date information on R speed, once the most important metric in the fight against viruses. growth rate, which indicates how much the number of infections is growing each day; How many people are infected every day? Trends in hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid and regional disruptions.

Latest R Ratio Figures

Current figures suggest that the UK has an R rate of 0.8 to 1.2, a growth rate of -4 to +3% and around 100,000 new infections per day.

This number has been relatively stable for several months and will likely remain as we return to daily life following the lockdown.

During the pandemic, R-values, growth rates and medium-term projections have served as useful indicators to inform public health action and government decisions, Dr Nick Watkins, chair of the epidemiological modeling review group and chief data scientist at UKHSA, told the Telegraph.

Now, thanks to vaccines and treatments, the publication of this particular data is no longer necessary as we can move to a stage where we are living with Covid-19, where surveillance has been reduced, but multiple indicators are still being closely monitored.

We will continue to monitor Covid-19 activity in a similar way to monitoring other common diseases and conditions.

All data publications are reviewed on an ongoing basis and this modeling data can be immediately reintroduced as needed (eg when new variants of a concern need to be identified).

The documents and figures are no longer published for public viewing, although the Telegraph understands that data analysis work will continue behind the scenes.

The UKHSA’s weekly updates on flu and Covid will continue to be posted tracking what’s happening, and the ONS Covid Infection Survey will also continue to run, providing information on how many people have contracted the virus at any one time.

The Covid dashboard, which is no longer omnipotent due to the end of free testing, will also continue to work, but is expected to be readjusted in the new year.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said UKHSA’s move was perfectly acceptable as long as the analysis continued behind the scenes.

“We don’t have regular updates on flu or RSV numbers in the UK, and as we saw with the recent Group A Strep (iGAS) story, it’s very unusual to have such granular data,” he said.

We believe that data will continue to be collected without being published. Funds could probably be used more effectively elsewhere.

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