Why Biden and Trump moved from sanctions to engagement with the Maduro regime

Nowadays, it is difficult to achieve political consensus in Washington. But there is a rare degree of alignment in Democratic and Republican foreign policy circles on the need for a more realistic approach to Venezuela, one that balances U.S. interests with the need for a democratic solution to the political crisis in Caracas.

Nowadays, it is difficult to achieve political consensus in Washington. But there is a rare degree of alignment in Democratic and Republican foreign policy circles on the need for a more realistic approach to Venezuela, one that balances U.S. interests with the need for a democratic solution to the political crisis in Caracas.

Like the United States, Venezuela is also holding presidential elections later this year. Although the simultaneous votes and their varied potential outcomes will have significant ramifications for U.S.-Venezuela relations, Washington's policy toward Caracas is unlikely to change dramatically depending on who wins the House. White.

Those who have followed the recent ups and downs of US policy in Venezuela know this story: After a so-called maximum pressure campaign failed to oust Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro, the White House changed tactics , moving to support negotiations with Maduro's government and even sending officials there. Caracas must engage in behind-the-scenes conversations to promote U.S. interests.

This shift is often described as having occurred under US President Joe Biden, who last year lifted some sanctions on Venezuela and its vast oil sector in exchange for concessions in long-running negotiations, but often at deadlock, between Maduro and the opposition. The sanctions relief was intended to incentivize Maduro to ensure that Venezuela's July 28 vote was more competitive than previous elections and to facilitate the release of U.S. prisoners held in the country. Biden officials have also worked with their Venezuelan counterparts to advance these issues.

In practice, however, this change was already underway under former President Donald Trump. Although their rhetoric differed, both administrations combined pressure and strategic engagement in their relations with Caracas. The parallels between Biden and Trump's policies in Venezuela suggest that whoever wins the November US election, Biden and Trump are their respective parties' presumptive presidential candidates. Washington is unlikely to return to the failed maximum pressure strategy of the past.

Trump's maximum pressure campaign included imposing crippling sanctions on Venezuela and issuing criminal indictments against key government figures. Sanctions are expected to cause Venezuela to lose $11 billion a year in revenue from oil exports, the main driver of the Venezuelan economy, according to former national security adviser John Bolton. In 2019, the White House adopted an interim opposition government led by Juan Guaid, then president of the National Assembly. Although Guaid had no control over the military or other national institutions, he sought to encourage defections from the Maduro government in order to trigger a transition of power in Venezuela. Bolton would later characterize this as an attempt at US-backed regime change.

But Trump also showed pragmatism. After Bolton left office, the administration cleared the way for elections in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions, known as the 2020 Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela. The plan was hamstrung by its call for Maduro to cede executive power as a condition for new elections, but it nonetheless emphasized the carrot rather than the stick, evidence of a paradigm shift in approach from Washington to Caracas. The plan also called for an amnesty law for Maduro officials and emphasized a proposed power-sharing deal between Maduro's ruling United Socialist Party and the opposition.

This Trump-era pragmatism was led by figures such as Elliott Abrams, then the special representative for Venezuela, who held discreet conversations with Maduro's foreign minister in New York in 2019, according to the Associated Press. Those talks do not appear to have yielded results, but they demonstrated Trump's interest in communicating with Maduro, even though his administration technically recognized Guaid as Venezuela's president.

This pragmatism was echoed in September 2020, when Trump sent Richard Grenell, the former acting director of U.S. national intelligence, to Mexico City to meet with Jorge Rodrguez, a former Venezuelan vice president and close confidant of Maduros. At this point, Trump reportedly expressed doubt that his own maximum pressure strategy had failed and viewed Guaid as weak, according to Bolton.

That Biden and Trump have sought dialogue with a government they previously viewed as a pariah means they recognize the constraints of U.S. influence on decisions made in Caracas. It is also emblematic of the changing dynamics of global energy and geopolitics.

Years of US economic sanctions have failed to dislodge Maduro. The first financial sanctions against Caracas were imposed in August 2017, exacerbating a pre-existing economic crisis by preventing state oil company PDVSA and its partners from accessing credit. This was followed by individual sanctions against more than 150 political and military allies of Maduro's coalition, and criminal charges against almost all of the country's top ministers. These were followed by direct sanctions against the oil sector, described in some US political circles as a nuclear option to pressure Maduro. These sanctions contributed to a nearly five-fold decrease in oil production compared to the period before the sanctions. Repeated U.S.-backed efforts to trigger a military coup in Venezuela and an attempted invasion led by mercenaries in partnership with a U.S. private security firm have also failed to oust Maduro.

Faced with the fact that Maduro's coalition is unlikely to collapse under its own weight, the United States now recognizes that the best hope for stability and democratic change in Venezuela lies in some form of negotiated transition and d 'elections. Venezuela's ruling coalition is not going to disappear into thin air; If Caracas wants to restore its institutions and its economy, the United Socialist Party must forge a political future. As the approaches of Biden and Trump demonstrate, many in the Democratic and Republican parties are now aware of this.

Great power competition also shapes U.S. policy toward Venezuela. U.S. financial sanctions have created an opportunity for rivals such as Russia and China to increase their influence in Caracas. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which prompted US and European allies to seek oil and gas alternatives to Moscow, there is growing recognition that it is not in Washington's interest in ceding space to its geopolitical rivals in the Western Hemisphere. Given that Venezuela is home to the world's largest oil reserves, it will continue to be important for the United States and other Western countries to maintain a footprint there.

As U.S. and European energy companies invest again in Venezuela, the West has a chance to stabilize the country's economy while pushing for transparency in the private sector. Western companies have their own strict compliance and oversight standards, and their increased investments in Venezuela will leave less room for corruption. An improved economy could also help stem the flow of Venezuelan migrants, who are arriving in large numbers at the U.S. southern border. Venezuelans are fleeing both their country's political crisis and a lack of opportunities, but a stabilized economy combined with broad political agreements could lead fewer migrants to decide to risk the perilous journey north.

U.S. policy toward Venezuela has recently yielded significant victories. Sanctions relief negotiated by the Biden administration last year was part of a deal that guaranteed the release of all U.S. detainees in Venezuela, in addition to two dozen Venezuelan political prisoners. It also led to representatives of the opposition and Maduro government signing an agreement on an electoral roadmap in Barbados.

This agreement did not result in a free or balanced electoral environment before the July vote; Opposition favorite Maria Corina Machado is still barred from running, as is alternate candidate Corina Yoris. But the opposition coalition said it was committed to voter turnout and nonetheless remained committed to dialogue with Maduro. It might be possible for the broader coalition to support another candidate who has been allowed to register, such as Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales and former diplomat Edmundo Gonzlez. Unlike Cuba or Nicaragua, other undemocratic adversaries of the United States in the region, Venezuela has an active opposition that has demonstrated success at the ballot box in recent national and local elections.

The White House recognizes that the United States can do more to promote democratic openness in Venezuela and pursue its geostrategic interests by combining targeted engagement with support for negotiations rather than relying solely on sanctions. The United States should instead empower committed opposition and Chavista voices who are working on a realistic path toward democratic reconciliation.

Venezuelans should not be encouraged to sit idly by and place their future entirely in the hands of a foreign government, even the U.S. government. In the past, this magical thinking has led the opposition to make huge mistakes, from repeated divisions over unpopular election boycotts to open calls for foreign military intervention.

Unless it is accompanied by some form of engagement and negotiation, pressure alone will not lead to change in Caracas. As Carlos Trujillo, former ambassador to the Organization of American States under Trump, said in a recent interview: “I don't think the sanctions themselves will result in a single outcome. I think they are part of a solution, just as negotiations must be part of the solution.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/11/us-venezuela-democrats-republicans-sanctions-negotiations-democracy-maduro/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos