Disastrous: Tensions between Israel and Iran test the limits of US policy amid the Gaza war | Israel's War on Gaza News

Washington, DC United States President Joe Biden issued a brief but stern warning to Iran as he vowed to retaliate against Israel following a deadly air raid on its consulate in Damascus: Don't do it.

But analysts say Iran will likely launch its own attack, raising fears of regional war and showing the limits of U.S. deterrence efforts in the Middle East.

The brinkmanship and resulting tensions have further strained Washington's foreign policy. The United States is already caught between two seemingly contradictory priorities: providing unconditional support to Israel and preventing the expansion of the conflict in Gaza.

Biden is doubling down on a formula that so far has proven absolutely disastrous, said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a think tank that promotes diplomacy.

Parsi said Biden should have reprimanded Israel for attacking the Iranian embassy on April 1, violating international law and endangering U.S. troops in the region.

But, he explained, the Biden administration is rewarding the Israeli government by promising to support it.

The United States, unlike some of its Arab and Western allies, has not condemned the Israeli strike on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria, which killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals.

The White House, however, was quick to distance itself from this strike, stressing that the United States was not involved.

The United States is dedicated to the defense of Israel

U.S. diplomats reportedly called this week, speaking with their counterparts around the world to urge restraint from Iran.

While calling for de-escalation, American officials also reaffirmed their country's unwavering support for Israel, raising fears of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

We are dedicated to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel, but Iran will not succeed, Biden said Friday. The Pentagon and the State Department have also expressed similar positions.

This completely deprives Israel of any incentive to de-escalate, Parsi said.

He added that Biden's support for Israel reflects his approach to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the war on Gaza, which green-lighted massacres and rights abuses in the Palestinian territory.

This helped shape the Israeli strategy which knew no limits, which did not care about international law because they understood that Biden would support them no matter what, Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank, called the U.S. approach to the crisis hypocritical and contradictory.

They are calling on all other parties in the region to show restraint, constantly telling the Iranians not to escalate, while they encourage the Israelis to act with impunity, Toossi told Al Jazeera.

Iran says Israel must be punished

He added that Iran's promise to retaliate is partly driven by the perception that the United States and Israel believe they can cause harm without triggering a strong reaction from Tehran, which does not want a regional war.

But now Iran wants to draw a firm line, Toossi told Al Jazeera. We can say very objectively that American policy has put us in this situation.

The Israeli military has been targeting Iran-linked sites in Syria for years as Tehran strengthens its military presence in the war-torn country.

But experts say Tehran views the bombing of a diplomatic facility as a particularly brazen act that should not go unanswered.

Consulate and embassy offices in any country are considered the territory of that country. When they attack our consulate, it means they have attacked our territory, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday.

The Zionist regime made a mistake and must and will be punished.

It remains to be seen where and how the promised retribution will come, but if it does, it could constitute a turning point in the expansion of the conflict in Gaza. Several countries this week warned their citizens against traveling to the region.

The war on Gaza, which has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, has already spread beyond the narrow enclave.

Hezbollah, a Lebanese group allied with Iran, exchanges fire daily with Israeli forces. The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea, demanding an end to the war, and a U.S.-led coalition has targeted the Yemeni group to stem its attacks.

But the trend of regional escalation appears to have eased somewhat after Iraqi armed groups ceased attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria at Tehran's request, according to several media reports.

A drone attack by Iranian-backed Iraqi groups killed three US soldiers at a base near the Jordan-Syria border. The United States then responded with a series of strikes in Iraq and Syria, but the crisis was ultimately contained.

Pressure on the United States and Israel

Today, the region once again faces the prospect of wider conflict.

The pressure is now on Israel and the United States rather than Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians will not take action. But the die was cast first by Israel, said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at John Hopkins University.

And now people are trying to avoid possible consequences.

Biden doesn't want the United States drawn into a war with Iran, especially as he seeks re-election in November. But Washington's default policy has long been to support Israel, Nasr added.

The American position is that they do not want the war to spread. They don't want to be drawn into a war with Iran. They do not want the war in Gaza to become a regional war, he told Al Jazeera.

They may be saying things to Israel behind the scenes, but I think they are publicly trying to warn Iran not to also escalate the war.

But he added that every country must face domestic political problems as part of its foreign policy. And in the United States, giving ironclad guarantees to the defense of Israel is already obvious.

In Washington, Iran hawks are calling for a forceful American response if Israel is attacked.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton on Wednesday called for a swift and devastating joint US-Israeli retaliation against any Iranian military action against Israel.

Israel is threatened with an imminent attack from Iran. President Biden must immediately warn the ayatollahs that the United States will support Israel to the end and that joint U.S.-Israeli retaliation to any attack will be swift and devastating.

Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) April 11, 2024

Obvious path to de-escalation

Ryan Costello, political director of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a Washington-based group that favors American diplomacy with Iran, warned that if the United States joined Israel in retaliatory strikes, the results could be catastrophic.

This is truly reckless and would certainly plunge the entire region into disastrous and bloody conflict, he told Al Jazeera.

Costello said that the U.S. posture so far has been focused on deterrence and light on conflict resolution.

They are saying that Israel will have our support and that Iran should just accept a strike on a diplomatic compound, which I think would be difficult for any nation to accept, he said.

For his part, Parsi of the Quincy Institute stressed that the best remedy for simmering tensions in the Middle East was to end the war in Gaza.

From a broader perspective, there has of course been an obvious de-escalation path that has always been available to Biden, namely pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, Parsi said.

A ceasefire would have stopped Iraqi militia attacks against the United States, would have stopped Houthi attacks, and would have stopped the escalation between Iran and Israel, between Israel and Hezbollah.

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