Ukraine receives its American funding. But can this reverse the trend?

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The Senate is expected to pass legislation Tuesday giving Ukraine a new lifeline. Six months of political wrangling and gridlock ended this weekend after a bipartisan vote in the House passed a bill authorizing some $61 billion in military aid. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) chose to antagonize the Trumpist wing of his caucus by pushing through the funding requests, which would have to be approved by President Biden.

This has not been an easy task for Johnson, a relatively inexperienced figure catapulted to prominence amid his own party's dysfunction and internecine battles. After procrastinating for months in the face of Ukraine's desperate pleas for help, he appeared constrained by reports from top intelligence agencies about the critical state of kyiv and the pleas of a handful of senior Republican lawmakers, closer to the establishment, as well as some prominent Democrats.

Look, history judges us for what we do, Johnson said at a news conference last week in response to a question from my colleagues about his decision to draw the ire of the Republican far right. We are currently living in a critical time, a critical time on the world stage. I could make a selfish decision and do something different, but I'm doing what I believe is the right thing here.

Far-right Republican lawmakers have openly considered launching an effort to oust Johnson from his role as president. In Europe, however, the pro-Ukraine movement has been cheered by kyiv's supporters. Better late than too late, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on social media. And I hope it is not too late for Ukraine.

The House on April 20 passed a $95 billion aid package to help Ukraine and Israel. The Senate is expected to consider these measures early this week. (Video: Reuters)

Ukraine's struggles after more than two years of resisting the Russian invasion are well documented. The country's depleted armed forces are short on personnel and even fewer ammunition, and officials in Washington and Kiev warn that Ukrainian troops could soon be outgunned by Russian invaders about 10 to 1. 'artillery. Russian long-range missiles and drones are landing indiscriminately on Ukrainian cities, many of which lack sufficient defenses to ward off such attacks. And far from reconquering lost territory, Ukrainian forces are engaged in a desperate battle to maintain their position, with Russia focusing its latest offensive on the eastern town of Chasiv Yar, in the partially occupied Donetsk region.

In an interview with NBC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country had wasted valuable time waiting for Congress to come to its aid. The process was blocked for six months and we recorded losses in several directions, in the East. It was very difficult and we lost the initiative, Zelensky said. We now have every chance of stabilizing the situation and seizing the initiative, and that is why we really need weapon systems.

It’s an assessment shared by some U.S. lawmakers. Ukraine lost because we didn't respond quickly, Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) told me. This delay was very costly, lives were lost, and it cost the United States credibility on the world stage.

Ernst was part of a six-member bipartisan delegation that visited Ukraine this month under the auspices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. Their visit saw them visit not only kyiv, but also the strategic port city of Odessa, the town of Bucha, site of a grisly massacre carried out by Russian forces early in the war, and the northern city of Chernihiv, where they went to the neighborhoods. which were then hit in a deadly Russian strike last week.

They came away from the trip struck both by the determination of ordinary Ukrainians to resist Russian forces and by the implicit and considerable threat that would pose to the rest of Europe if Russia were allowed to consolidate its territorial gains in Ukraine. Ernst warned that Russia would gobble up Ukraine's untapped gas fields and mineral wealth. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), another member of the delegation, noted that a collapse of the Ukrainian lines would give Russia a clear path to the heart of Europe.

The Ukrainian people are incredibly motivated to never fall under the thumb of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, Suozzi said, while looking askance at far-right, Kiev-skeptical colleagues like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ge.), whom he accused of repeating propaganda of the Kremlin.

Republican opponents of additional funding for Ukraine argue, among other things, that it is an unwinnable conflict and a dangerous drain of limited U.S. equipment and treasures. Suozzi compared these arguments to those made by Charles Lindbergh and other American isolationists at the start of World War II. We certainly have deficits, but that does not mean we can shirk our responsibilities, he said, before discussing the contrasting legacies of the two most famous British leaders of that era. It’s a Churchill or Chamberlain moment.

Many of my colleagues were frustrated that they failed to come up with a plan for victory, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) told me, referring to conversations between his Republican colleagues and visiting Ukrainian officials in Washington. .

Ukraine is currently struggling to develop a plan for victory while having bombs falling on its head, said Edwards, another member of the delegation. Their current objective is to prevent the Russians from bombing them to the point of annihilation.

Two years after the start of the full-fledged phase of this war and almost 10 years after Putin attacked us for the first time, Ukraine has never asked our friends and allies to send soldiers to fight our sides. We can always do it ourselves. All we ask is that you send us the tools. In order to prevent American and European soldiers from fighting Putin, which unfortunately will happen if, God forbid, Ukraine falls, we must support Ukraine and stop it while it is still in Ukraine. » – Oksana Markarova (Video: Washington Post Live)

Of course, there are more ambitious goals than that. Zelensky said the US funds and aid would help strengthen Ukraine's defenses and prepare kyiv for another counter-offensive after last year's failed efforts in the country's southeastern swamps.

In an op-ed for the Washington Post, Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution discussed a scenario in which a reinvigorated Ukrainian army could break through Russian lines at a crucial location, then work to cut off and surround Russian forces at west of this breakthrough corridor.

With an additional $60 billion in U.S. aid, increased recruiting and an impressive military offensive on a small part of the front line, Ukraine may have a chance late this year or early next year. next year, to liberate half or more of its occupied territory, he said. wrote. The chances are strong, but not hopeless.

Outside the front lines, Ukraine's odds are no less difficult. The toll of the war is heavy. Ukraine faces recurring battles for financial aid, my colleagues reported, citing potential efforts by the United States and Europe to redirect frozen Russian assets to kyiv. The current damage and reconstruction bill stands at $486 billion and continues to rise, according to a joint estimate by the government, the World Bank and the European Commission. And its struggling economy remains dependent on international support.

Given Ukrainian expectations for long-term support, disputes over kyiv's funding in Western capitals are far from over.

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