The data behind Reform UK’s success at the Blackpool by-election

Much of the current poor national performance is down to the relatively small number of seats the party actually contested at local level.

Last year, Mr Tice promised to field a reform candidate against all Tories in the general election.

However, in the local elections held on May 2, only 316 city council candidates were submitted, even though more than 2,600 seats were secured.

The party may have been hoping to use the migrant crisis as a top priority on its political agenda, with comparisons to Ukip's mid-2010s and heyday looming ever more rapid.

In the 2016 UK local elections, which offered a broadly similar total number of seats, Nigel Farage mobilized 1,400 parliamentary candidates.

various stadiums

Certainly the two iterations of Mr Farage's party are on different playing fields in this regard.

A better comparative metric is the success rate of candidates who actually appear on the ballot.

Friday's results showed that a total of 129 reform candidates out of 21 declared seats failed to win even a single one in the local elections.

In Sunderland, the only incumbent Reform candidate lost his seat.

In the 2014 and 2015 local elections, Ukip won 4% of the seats.

Even the reformist Blackpool South by-election result was somewhat overshadowed by Ukips, with the leading party winning a larger share of the constituency vote (17.3%) than it did at the 2015 general election.

Despite the relative weakness these results show, a closer look at the data at the district level, where the party has focused its efforts, shows that the party's support is much stronger than the headline statistics suggest.

Reform put forward 25 candidates in Sunderland, more than any other council in the UK. Mr Tice described the initial results there as excellent, adding: We expect to beat the Tories in the majority of Sunderland's 25 seats.

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