What we learned from local voting ahead of the upcoming UK general election

LONDON (AP) Millions of British voters cast their ballots in a series of local elections Thursday. This is the last big test before the upcoming UK general election, when by all indications Labor is expected to return to power for the first time in 14 years.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak barely pointed out the Conservatives' huge success, confirming that the electoral coalition that gave them a huge victory in the 2019 general election has collapsed, if not completely disintegrated, due to a series of events. Political drama and cost-of-living crisis.

Labor leader Keir Starmer said the results confirmed two years of opinion polls showing Labor had recovered from its 2019 lows and would win the election comfortably.

Here are five things we learned:

Will SUNAK face a revolt?

There may be.

The Conservatives lost about half of their 1,000 seats in parliament and suffered a crushing defeat in a by-election in Blackpool South, a coastal resort in northwestern England, but Sunak is not yet expected to stage a revolt. Uneasy members of their own party.

The reason is that the Conservative candidate held on despite his vote share falling significantly in the mayoral race held in Tees Valley, northeastern England. That helped alleviate some concerns despite losses elsewhere.

But the defeat of the Conservative incumbent mayor in the West Midlands could spark another round of anxiety among councilors who are increasingly concerned about whether they will be able to retain their seats in the general election. Sunak is under pressure from different factions within his party to move further to the right or towards the

Overall, the results show that Sunak has failed to improve the Conservatives' overall position after the damage caused by the actions of his virtually ousted predecessor, Boris Johnson, whose term lasted just 49 days after Liz Truss' economic policy faltered. financial markets.

When will the general election be held?

Probably around fall.

In the UK, the date of the general election is in the hands of the Prime Minister. This should happen by January and Sunak has repeatedly said his working homes will open in the second half of 2024.

In theory, it could happen as early as July, but most Conservative lawmakers say the best time would be the fall, when the latest tax cuts could be registered with voters, inflation could fall further and interest rates could be cut to help stimulate the economy. I did. Economic feel-good factor.

Waiting until the fall may give the government an opportunity to cut taxes again in other budgets. Conservatives will also hope that the controversial plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda succeeds and that there is evidence that the plan acts as a deterrent to those attempting to make the dangerous crossing across the English Channel in small boats. I hope so. From France to England.

Is labor heading towards power?

I think so.

History shows that Labor has a mountain to climb if it is to form the next government. The performance in the last general election in 2019 was the worst since 1935. Starmer has sought to return the party to the center of British politics following the leadership of veteran leftist Jeremy Corbyn.

If Thursday's results are any indication, Starmers' approach has clearly worked. Labor won control of the British Parliament, a seat the party had not held for decades, and scored a landslide victory over the Conservatives in Blackpool South. If this happens again in the general election, we will have a majority.

Labor won constituencies that supported the UK's departure from the European Union in 2016, including Hartlepool in northeast England and Thurrock in southeast England, where they were crushed by pro-Brexit Johnson. He also demonstrated that he had a broad base of support by taking control of Rushmoor, a bushy, military-heavy council in southern England that he had never won before.

It is fair to say that enthusiasm levels are much lower than when Labor's Tony Blair emerged before the 1997 general election.

Perhaps partly due to tougher economic times, Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, lacks the enthusiasm of Blair.

Will there be a landslide?

It's going to be hard.

One of the contributing factors to Blair's landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting. Some voters put aside their political preferences and voted for the person most likely to defeat the party they most opposed. The Conservatives did that in 1997.

Tactical voting is back, and to some extent evident in Thursday's election, when Conservative candidates lost to Labor as well as other parties, including the centrist Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

The Conservatives could also be outflanked on the right, with Reform Britain poised to field candidates across the UK. It had a minimal presence in Thursday's election, but where the party actually stood it clearly took votes away from Conservative candidates. This was notable in Blackpool South, where the Reform candidate was just shy of unseating the Conservatives into second place.

If reforms that claim to be tougher on issues such as immigration or Brexit succeed in the general election, other parties, particularly Labor, could defeat the Conservatives.

Does labor have a GAZA problem?

It certainly seems like that.

In some areas with large Muslim populations, such as Blackburn and Oldham in north-west England, Labor candidates appear to have suffered due to the leadership's strong pro-Israel stance on the Gaza conflict.

Labour's vote share was clearly affected, but the impact on its performance in the general election is unclear, as seats with large Muslim populations typically have Labor majorities.

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